Game Info
Good Guys: Texas Tech Red Raiders (27-8)
Bad Guys: Arkansas Razorbacks (22-13)
When to Watch: Thursday, March 27th @ 9:09 pm
Where to Watch: Chase Center | San Francisco, CA
How to Watch: TNT/truTV
How to Listen: 97.3 FM | Affiliates | Varsity Network
The Line: Texas Tech -5.5
Advanced Stats
| TEXAS TECH | STAT | ARKANSAS |
|---|---|---|
Lineups
| THE STARTERS | Pts / Reb | |
|---|---|---|
| POINT GUARD | Elijah Hawkins (5-11/160) | 9.4 / 6.5* |
| SHOOTING GUARD | Chance McMillian (6-3/190) | 14.2 / 4.1 |
| SMALL FORWARD | Kerwin Walton (6-5/210) | 6.2 / 1.3 |
| POWER FORWARD | Darrion Williams (6-6/225) | 14.7 / 5.4 |
| CENTER | JT Toppin (6-9/225) | 18.1 / 9.3 |
| THE BENCH | Pts / Reb | |
| SIXTH MAN | Christian Anderson (6-2/165) | 10.5 / 2.2* |
| SEVENTH MAN | Kevin Overton (6-5/200) | 7.8 / 3.6 |
| EIGHTH MAN | Federiko Federiko (6-11/215) | 5.1 / 4.4 |
| NINTH MAN | Eemeli Yalaho (6-8/240) | 3.3 / 2.4 |
| TENTH MAN | Leon Horner (6-4/215) | 0.3 / 0.6 |
| ELEVENTH MAN | Jack Francis (6-3/185) | 0.3 / 0.3 |
| TWELFTH MAN | Corbin Green (6-5/230) | 0.0 / 0.5 |
| THIRTEENTH MAN | Jazz Henderson (5-11/175) | – / – |
| THE STARTERS | Pts / Reb | |
| POINT GUARD | D.J. Wagner (6-4/195) | 11.1 / 3.6* |
| SHOOTING GUARD | Johnell Davis (6-4/210) | 11.4 / 3.3 |
| SMALL FORWARD | Karter Knox (6-6/220) | 8.0 / 3.2 |
| POWER FORWARD | Trevon Brazile (6-10/230) | 6.7 / 5.4 |
| CENTER | Jonas Aidoo (6-11/240) | 6.9 / 4.9 |
| THE BENCH | Pts / Reb | |
| SIXTH MAN | Billy Richmond III (6-5/205) | 5.8 / 3.0 |
| SEVENTH MAN | Boogie Fland (6-2/175) | 14.2 / 5.4* |
| EIGHTH MAN | Zvonimir Ivisic (7-2/245) | 8.8 / 4.4 |
| NINTH MAN | Adou Thiero (6-8/220) | 15.6 / 6.0 |
| TENTH MAN | – (-/-) | – / – |
* Assists.
Starting 5
1. Stats. Arkansas is a decent offensive team. They are a pretty terrible 3-point shooting team, 348th in the nation, but inside the arc they rank 58th in the nation. They are a team that almost never has their shot blocked (so why try), good for 17th in the nation. Despite their height, they don’t rebound the ball well on the offensive glass, just 232nd, but get to the line a decent amount, 102nd, and don’t turn the ball over a ton, 125th. Defensively is where they shine, they are 7th in the nation in blocked shots, maybe the best shot-blocking team Texas Tech has played. Despite the aggressive defense, they don’t put teams on the line a ton, 92nd in the nation, and they will suffocate you, 60th in the nation in 3-point defense, and 55th in the nation in 2-point defense. They play pretty even in all the other ways, 157th in turnover percentage, 158th in opponent offensive rebounding.
2. Scouting. Thiero is the best player for the Razorbacks and it just so happens that he’s coming back for this game! Awesome, right? Thiero is a high usage player, and a terrific shooter inside the arc, doesn’t turn the ball over, gets to the line at a high rate, and steals the ball at a high rate. He’s expected to play 15 to 20 minutes. Fland is a terrific passer and doesn’t turn the ball over, but he’s not a great shooter, just 41% inside the arc and 34% from deep. That will be a running theme for Arkansas, Fland, Davis, Ivisic and Wagner all shoot 3’s, while Ivisic is the best of the bunch at 38%, Davis makes just 33%, Wagner makes 31% and Davis 33%. That’s okay, but not great. They do have a bunch of guys that shoot really well inside the arc. Aidoo, Brazile and Ivisic are great rebounders and shot blockers. Fland gets them the ball and they score from inside. Of all things, Wagner is the one guy that plays the highest percentage of minutes, but statistically there are maybe other players that should play more.
3. How They Match Up. Texas Tech’s offense is really elite and it’s not something that anyone who reads these previews regularly don’t already know. Arkansas won’t be intimidated and I think that defensively they will have the length to give Texas Tech trouble. There will be times where there will be longer players on Williams and you wonder if he will be as effective posting up players and just settling for outside shots. And it is the guards that get a ton of time, like Wagner and Davis with Knox getting some good minutes as well and then the length like Thiero, Brazile, Ivisic, Richmond and Aidoo all play half of the game. You also have to consider how that length will affect Texas Tech defensively, who really have just two post players in Toppin and Federiko, how will Texas Tech defend that length is a huge question for me.
4. lagniappe | something given as a bonus or extra gift.
CBS Sports’ John Talty: Rodman acolyte JT Toppin has been worth every penny for Texas Tech — and sealed Rodney Terry’s fate at Texas
Texas boosters, which went all-in on NIL last season with the football program, didn’t seem as willing to open up for Terry. It was an open secret in college basketball circles that Texas AD Chris Del Conte had his eye on other coaches before feeling like he had to promote Terry following an Elite Eight run as the interim coach in 2023. Coming into this season, it was known that Terry would likely have to make another NCAA Tournament run to hold on to his job, but the money didn’t seem to pour in to help make that happen. Texas fired Terry last week and is expected to commit more resources to new coach Sean Miller.
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A big reason Texas Tech won the Toppin sweepstakes? General manager Kellen Buffington, who is well-known in Dallas circles after running camps and operating TheTB5Reports scouting. Buffington was a big fan of Toppin’s long before he was a top transfer portal target for a bevy of Power Four programs. That belief in Toppin and the accompanying relationship led to a mutual trust between all parties. Toppin wanted the freedom to grow as a basketball player, to be able to show off he could be more than just a Rodman-esque rebounder, and believed Buffington and Texas Tech head coach Grant McCasland when they said he could do that in Lubbock.
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The Razorbacks need a big game from at least one of those four players — Aidoo’s 22 points against Kansas showed he clearly outplayed Dickinson on both ends — because the perimeter shooting is dismal. They went 2 for 19 from 3 against St. John’s i in the second round after going 6 for 24 from 3 against Kansas in the first round. Overall, they are 246th in 3-point shooting percentage.
The Razorbacks don’t need to match the Red Raiders from deep, but they will likely need at least one guy to get going, or else it’ll simply be too much of a math problem. In some of Arkansas’ best regular-season wins, they got some surprise shooting. In a win over Mississippi State, Brazile, DJ Wagner and Johnell Davis each hit three 3s, and in a win over Kentucky that got Arkansas’ turnaround started, Ivišić made four.
CBS Sports’ Chip Patterson: 2025 March Madness predictions: NCAA bracket expert picks against the spread, odds in Thursday’s Sweet 16
10:09 p.m. on TBS | March Madness Live: There are some things that numbers are not going to be able to explain, like how a No. 10-seed with 13 losses can string together back-to-back wins against Kansas and St. John’s while shooting a combined 8 for 43 from behind the arc. This Arkansas team is ready for war, believing in each other and finding ways to win even when the shots aren’t falling. The news that Adou Thiero is available to play limited minutes is not insignificant — Arkansas will need versatile defenders against the space of Texas Tech’s dangerous and efficient offense — but it is the size that the Red Raiders give up that could be the difference. This is a bet that Jonas Aidoo, Trevon Brazile and Big Z are not going to let JT Toppin have clear looks inside, giving Arkansas a chance to extend their tournament run. Pick: Arkansas +5.5
ESPN’s Jay Bilas: March Madness 2025: Bilas’ path to the men’s Final Four for every Sweet 16 team
Red Raiders make the Final Four if: They continue to run quality offense, meaning the Red Raiders’ offense can help its defense. Texas Tech is a high-volume 3-point-shooting team that takes good care of the ball. With JT Toppin, the Red Raiders have a go-to, on-demand scorer who is averaging more than 21 points over his past six games. Texas Tech is not a great defensive team, but running a good offense can significantly help the defensive effort.
Player to watch: Elijah Hawkins. The 5-11 senior transfer from Minnesota is one of the nation’s best passers and has an assist rate among the top five of remaining players in the field. Hawkins is averaging over eight assists in his past four games.
Area of concern: Sharpshooter Chance McMillian has not played since the Baylor game in the Big 12 tournament. If he cannot play against Arkansas, that leaves more than 14 points per game and a floor spacing shooter out of Texas Tech’s offensive equation.
ESPN’s Greg Peterson: Men’s March Madness 2025: Best bets for the Sweet 16
No. 3 Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. No. 10 Arkansas Razorbacks, 10:09 p.m. ET
Bet: Texas Tech -5.5
While Arkansas is as healthy as they have been all season with Noi. 2 scorer Boogie Fland returning for the NCAA tournament, their post play will be put to the test by JT Toppin. Toppin has registered a double-double in five of Texas Tech’s past six games and gives the team the option to beat opposing defenses both on the inside, or with a stable of guards who shoot 37.1% from 3-point range. Arkansas is shooting only 31.3% from 3-point range in games played away from home and with Toppin being the most dominant big man in this game, it could allow Texas Tech to win by a comfortable margin.
Lubbock Avalanche-Journal’s Nathan Giese: Texas Tech basketball’s Grant McCasland says ‘brother’ Ross Hodge can win at West Virginia
Matt Braeuer has been with McCasland each of the last seven seasons, dating back to their time together at UNT. Earlier this month, Braeuer was named head coach at Stephen F. Austin. While Braeuer has started work for the Lumberjacks, he is remaining with Texas Tech until the team’s NCAA Tournament run comes to an end.
McCasland’s successor at UNT, Ross Hodge, was named the head coach at West Virginia on Wednesday. Hodge has been in McCasland’s orbit dating back to their junior college days. Hodge served as McCasland’s associate head coach at both Arkansas State and UNT, but stuck around Denton to take over the program when McCasland left for Texas Tech.
Lubbock Avalanche-Journal’s Nathan Giese: What Arkansas coach John Calipari said of facing Texas Tech basketball in Sweet 16
“I’m watching tape and I say, in that league, to have that record, to go on the road and win the games he’s won, that team, he’s got them playing together and for each other.
“We can play really fast, but we can also grind it if we had to. We could slow the game down, which we’ll do at times. They can shoot the 3 or, if you try to take that away, they can post it. And they play that way. And they’ll figure out where there’s an advantage and they go right after it. He’s done a great job. He really has.
“It’s going to be a really hard game for us. But you know what? My kids, they’ve come through the fire. And my guess is other than a fan of Arkansas, no one is picking us to win the game. But the great news in this tournament, you’ve got to play the games. Gotta play them.
Lubbock Avalanche-Journal’s Nathan Giese: Texas Tech basketball’s Kerwin Walton living in the moment in final March Madness run
At the time, Walton hadn’t decided whether or not he was going to return to the Red Raiders. He had plenty of reason to leave. His first stop at North Carolina had peaks and valleys, and his one year at Texas Tech had been a roller coaster. The program he joined, coming off a Sweet 16 appearance, had turned into shambles seemingly overnight.
McCasland saw Walton’s work ethic, and his skillset was the exact sort of talent he needed to make Texas Tech relevant in a hurry.
“I do genuinely think he trusted me,” McCasland said. “… We got to the last day of the transfer portal before he made his official decision. But I had enough time to be around him and he had enough time to be around me to know I didn’t think anyone would ever outwork him.”
5. Official Site. The official site has their preview right here:
No. 3 Texas Tech and No. 10 Arkansas are set for a NCAA Tournament West Region Sweet 16 matchup at 9:09 p.m. (CDT) on Thursday at the Chase Center in San Francisco, California. The game is the 81st meeting between the two programs and will be broadcast on TBS or truTV while the Texas Tech Sports Network radio call can be heard locally on Double T 97.3 and with national radio coverage through Westwood One. The West Region semifinals begin with No. 1 Florida and No. 4 Maryland playing at 6:39 p.m. (CDT) on Thursday with the regional final set for Saturday and the winner advancing to the Final Four in San Antonio.
“What a fantastic opportunity for the Red Raiders to be in San Francisco and to be playing in the Sweet 16,” Texas Tech coach Grant McCasland said. “Our guys are excited to be here and play a tremendous opponent in Arkansas. And I know Coach Cal has the Razorbacks playing great basketball and we know we’ll have to play our best in order to put ourselves in position to win. The biggest thing is their team’s improved with, if you ask me about anybody, I would say how resilient are you when things don’t go your way. That’s the biggest compliment I could give this team that Coach Cal — seems like he always believes in them and gets them to believe in themselves and figure out a way as the identities change in these programs, with some players being available.”