Texas Tech (8-4, 5-3) vs. Arkansas Razorbacks (6-6, 3-5)

When: Friday, December 27th @ 6:00 pm
Where: Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium | Memphis, TN
TV & Streaming: ESPN
Radio: TuneIn Radio
The Line: Arkansas -2
Weather: 62-58, Showers

Keys to the Game

1. Mid Isn’t Bad, But It Isn’t Good Either. Arkansas is really a pretty mid team, not really great at anything, but not terrible either. They are 43rd in yards per play, 70th in 3rd down conversion, 73rd in red zone scoring percentage. And that applies to the defense too. Opponent yards per play they are 63rd, opponent 3rd down conversion and 67th in opponent red zone scoring.
2. Taking Advantage. When I look at stats, I try to find holes and that’s not something that I see here. I am hoping that Tahj Brooks doesn’t play and if that’s the case, it could be a bid difficult running the ball, which means that Will Hammonds will need to sling it more than running it. Arkansas is 92nd in opponent completion percentage and 96th in opponent passing yards per game, so there’s probably real opportunity there.
3. What To Do With The Defense. The defense is another matter. There are a ton of players that are committed in the portal and my guess is that current players might not feel so welcome. There will be opportunities to sack the quarterback, they are 111th in protection, and aren’t a team that completes passes at a high rate, 69th in completion percentage, but they love to throw it down the field, 28th in yards per pass at 7.9 yards per attempt.
4. Time To Turnover. I would think that Arkansas has probably lost games because of turnovers, so another place for opportunity. They are 119th in turn over margin, 122nd in giveaways per game, 91st in takeaways per game, and 64th in interceptions thrown. So, they aren’t a team that gets a ton of turnovers on defense, they have an offense that has been turnover prone, now we just have to have the freshman quarterback that’s hyped settle down and not bite off more than he can chew.

Players to Watch

• QB Taylen Green (6-6/230): Green is originally from Lewisville with a stop at Boise State before arriving at Arkansas. Green completed 61% of his passes for 2,813 yards, averaging 234 yards a game, 13 touchdowns and 9 interceptions. Green can also run, he’s got 521 yards, about 43 yards a game with 7 touchdowns.
• RB Ja’Quinden Jackson (6-2/233): Jackson appears to be the size of Tahj Brooks, rushing for about 79 yards a game, 5 yards a carry, with 15 touchdowns.
• WR Andrew Armstrong (6-4/202): Armstrong is from Dallas and is by far and away the leading receiver with 78 receptions, 1,140 yards and just 1 touchdown. As an aside, TE Luke Hasz (6-3/241) is the leading touchdown receiver with 4.
• DL Landon Jackson (6-7/280): Jackson is a load, 49 tackles, 9.5 tackles for a loss, 6.5 sacks, 3 passes broken up, 9 quarterback hurries, and 1 forced fumble. Obviously a disrupter for offenses, he will be one to watch and probably easy to spot.
• LB Xavian Sorey, Jr. (6-3/225): Sorey has 89 tackles, with 9 tackles for a loss, 1 interception, 2 sacks, 3 quarterback hurries, and a pass broken up.
• CB TJ Metcalf (6-1/200): Metcalf leads the team with 3 interceptions, has 57 tackles, 1 tackle for a loss, 7 additional passes defended and a forced fumble.

One Big Idea

Of all things, the one thing I forgot to write about was to write about the one big thing, but I do have a ton of content and I have a really big piece to publish next week about the transfer class and some really big thoughts about it. Next week, before the new year.

Opponent Intel

The quarterback run-game will be strong with the Razorbacks. The quarterback will take off and run and get big positive yards at any point. They are also keen on on sending out single receivers deep and watching them make plays. I don’t know that they really have the guys to do that, but might be able to do that against this secondary. It appears that the defense struggled with big plays against Mississippi State, but the Bulldogs couldn’t capitalized. There will be opportunities for the offense for plays and points. Should also watch that tight end, #81, who made a handful of plays there and is a big target.

Stats

These two teams are pretty dead-even overall. Not a ton of difference in those ratings. It’s also going to be interesting for Texas Tech with a new signal-caller on both sides of the ball. Texas Tech is a good passing team, but will have a true freshman throwing those passes. Texas Tech has been good at explosive drives, being efficient, and being on the good side of things not having a ton of negative drives. It will be interesting to see how the offensive line gets going, especially with the rush defense being an area of strength for the Hogs. Arkansas is offensively very well-rounded, not great at any one thing, but pretty decent all the way around. Also, how will the defense hold up with a new DC and what will be likely a diminished defense in terms of numbers.

Links: Sharp College Football; BCF Toys; ESPN FPI; KFord Ratings; and CFB Graphs.

News:

Texas Tech football (pdf) game notes:

OUT FOR SEASON
Dylan Spencer So. OLB Knee
Joseph Adedire Jr. OLB Knee
Vinny Sciury Sr. OL Knee
E’Maurion Banks Jr. DL Knee
Justin Horne RFr. LB Knee

OUT FOR ARKANSAS
Devynn Cromwell Sr. DB Shoulder
Behren Morton Jr. QB Shoulder
Bryce Ramirez Sr. LB Lower Leg

QUESTIONABLE FOR ARKANSAS
De’Braylon Carroll Sr. DL Ankle
Sam Carrell Jr. OLB Foot
Quincy Ledet Jr. Sr. DL Knee

CBS Sports’ Dennis Dodd: The rise of the college sports GM: As the game goes professional, only the head coach may have more power

“For years I was thinking, ‘We’ve got to be running a Ponzi scheme. Where are all these fire hydrants going? We would build 150 fire hydrants a day. I’m like, ‘Guys, the math isn’t adding up.'”

The day job served a purpose, but only in a bottom-line way to feed his family. Those player evaluation skills — with all the variables to challenge him — eventually landed Blanchard in the front row with the most desired college job this side of rush chairman.

When Baylor linebackers coach Joey McGuire was hired as Texas Tech’s 16th head coach in November 2021, he was accompanied on the private plane by one staffer on the trip to Lubbock. McGuire would have it no other way. James Ke’L Blanchard, now 34, just completed his third season as Texas Tech’s general manager of the football program.

Lubbock Avalanche-Journal’s Don Williams: Texas Tech football receiving leader Josh Kelly to miss Liberty Bowl, spokesman says

Lubbock Avalanche-Journal’s Nathan Giese: Inside Will Hammond’s drive to thrive for Texas Tech football in first career start at Liberty Bowl

Hammond uses his second game action, the 35-34 loss to TCU, as his biggest learning tool. Spelling Morton in the second half, Hammond led the Red Raiders to touchdowns on back-to-back drives before the Horned Frogs stifled them the rest of the way, mounting the comeback win.

“The biggest thing I took away from that game was how do I get to what’s next?” Hammond said. “… I have a really good rack of four plays, what’s next? If the next four plays later on in practice aren’t good, then what’s the point? You have to be able to maximize the present moment. That’s something I really honed in on, just, let’s be great right now. Let’s really be in the present moment. Let’s go win right now, because that’s all that matters is the present moment.”

Lubbock Avalanche-Journal’s Nathan Giese: Texas Tech football interims ready to lead Red Raiders to Liberty Bowl vs. Arkansas

With the firing of defensive coordinator Tim DeRuyter earlier this month, Ah You is being tasked with handling play-calling duties when the Red Raiders take on Arkansas. It’s a new world for the former St. Louis Ram, but he has plenty of backing from head coach Joey McGuire, who said recently he can’t envision having a staff that doesn’t include Ah You.

“It’s always a great thing to hear when someone appreciates the work that you do,” Ah You said, “but I’ve always just put my head down and just continue working. There’s always room for improvement and that’s just what I’ve done throughout my career, and it feels good to know that he feels that way towards the stuff I put on tape.”

/snip/

“I would just say the biggest difference is just probably scripting and getting everything prepared,” Johnson said. “Outside of that it’s pretty normal. From an added responsibility, just scripting and the preparation of practice, kind of itemizing things and organizing things of what we need to see, different looks we need to see.”

Lubbock Avalanche-Journal’s Don Williams: Texas Tech football vs. Arkansas: Scouting report, prediction on Liberty Bowl

Score prediction: Texas Tech 33, Arkansas 21
Bottom line: Arkansas, with its proximity to Memphis, could have more fans, but the Razorbacks also have suffered more attrition by key players. Texas Tech is set up to win a bowl for the fourth year in a row and third in that time against an SEC opponent.

Place Your Bets

I don’t know what to think about starting a freshman quarterback that might be pretty amped up to get his first start. I think Will Hammond has been great, but it doesn’t remove the fact that he is a true freshman. I also don’t know how the offense will operate without Josh Kelly and probably Tahj Brooks (who I hope doesn’t play and as of Monday when I am writing this he has not decided). It’s not worth it to him to play as much as I’d love to win this game and get to 9 wins. I think that this game being a pick-em for the most part as a point here or a point there doesn’t mean very much. I’ll take Texas Tech in a close one, so I’ll take those points. And for the record, 51% of the public bets are on Texas Tech, so bettors are split pretty evenly on the winner here.

At the Finish

I’m at the point where I’m thinking the momentum is to the point where Texas Tech gets the win. There’s a ton of positivity and think that flows over a bit to this game and I think that McGuire wants to win this game. I’m sure Arkansas does too, but it’s okay to pick Texas Tech here in a close game. And I’d also like to add that Texas Tech is a 2-point dog with a true freshman at quarterback making his first start. That, I think, says a lot more about the state of the teams than anything else.