Texas Tech (7-4, 5-3) vs. West Virginia (6-5, 5-3)

When: Saturday, November 30th @ 11:00 am
Where: Jones AT&T Stadium | Lubbock, TX
TV & Streaming: FS1
Radio: TuneIn Radio
The Line: Texas Tech -3
Weather: Mostly Cloudy, 61-30

Keys to the Game

1. West Virginia Will Be Intent on Doing One Thing. That thing is running the ball. WVU is 18th is rush attempts per game at 42.6 and they are 27th in the nation in rushing yards per game at 186.7. Nearly 60% of WVU’s plays are running plays and this is where they will attempt to focus their energy. Texas Tech’s defense is giving up 151 yards a game and we saw last week that they are susceptible to the long play to break a game and OSU ran for 200 yards. This will have to be a focus and to add some kindling to the fire, we don’t know the status of Ledet and Carroll as they had ankle sprains.
2. Opportunities to Throw the Danged Ball. West Virginia isn’t a great rush defense, but their pass defense needs some work and I think that’s where Texas Tech is likely to find the most success that would eventually lead to success running the ball. I thought utilizing the tight ends was great last week, most teams don’t have the horses to stop something like that and would love to see that again. The one thing that will cause issues is that West Virginia is 66th in sack rate, so the line will have to be great again.
3. Third Downs Success. Last week Texas Tech was really good at converting 3rd downs and West Virginia is 116th in defending 3rd down conversions and to go one step further, they are 12th in stopping 4th downs. There’s opportunity there and the Texas Tech offense is 13th in the nation in 3rd down success.
4. Weird Game. I think this is going to be a weird game. I actually like Neal Brown, I found him to be a good person from afar. I don’t know how things will play out, but the Mountaineers were 9-4 last year and I think the thought going into this season would be that they’d improve upon that record. I honestly thought they were the surprise team of the Big 12 last year. At 6-5 this year and Brown is 37-34 in 5 years at West Virginia, he just hasn’t gotten over the hump. There’s lots of speculation that this is Brown’s last game as the head coach at West Virginia and that could be a very galvanizing things for the coaches and players, especially if they know this is about to go down. It would not surprise me to see West Virginia come out with some real emotion and although that’s not necessarily a real thing, I think the Mountaineers will play hard for their coach. Texas Tech will need to match that emotion and energy through the game.

Players to Watch

• QB Garrett Greene (5-11/201): Did not want to end the season with a running quarterback, but here we are. Greene hasn’t been great, completing 56% of his passes for 7.2 yards an attempt, 190 yards passing a game, and 12 touchdowns and 9 picks thus far. Greene’s legs keep everyone honest and he averages 72 yards a game running the ball and 5.6 yards a rush with 5 touchdowns. He’s a threat to do so many things.
• RB Jahiem White (5-7/195) & CJ Donaldson (6-2/238): White leads the team with 693 yards, 5.4 yards a carry and 63 yards a game. White is a bit of a receiving threat with 13 catches for 95 yards. Donaldson has been his equal with 621 yards rushing overall, 4.7 yards a rush and 9 touchdowns. Donaldson is obviously the goal line running back.
• WR Hudson Clement (6-1/198) & TE Kole Taylor (6-7/255): West Virginia will be without receivers Traylon Ray (2nd on the team receiving yards) or Jaden Bray (7th). Clement has 36 receptions, 54 yards a game and nearly 15 yards a catch with 3 touchdowns. Taylor is obviously a huge target and he’s really productive, 38 receptions, 10 yards a catch, 3 touchdowns and about 36 yards receiving a game.
• S Anthony Wilson (5-9/199): Wilson leads the Mountaineers with 88 tackles, has 1 interception that he returned for a touchdown, with 3 passes broken up.
• LB Josiah Trotter (6-2/238): Josiah is the son of the Philly linebacker, Jeremiah Trotter (who was born in Hooks, Texas, and went to SFA). As a freshman, he’s got 84 tackles, 4 tackles for a loss, half a sack, 2 passes broken up and 4 quarterback hurries. Pretty impressive stuff.
• DE TJ Tackson (6-1/282): Jackson has 35 tackles, 13 tackles for a loss, 6.5 sacks, and a quarterback hurry. Obviously incredibly disruptive on the defensive side of the ball. I’d probably watch him (#11) and Trotter (#40) for most of the game.

One Big Idea

This is Texas Tech’s and Joey McGuire’s chance to take that next step. Despite a lot of hand-wringing over the record and losing to teams that the Red Raiders should not have lost to, sitting right in front of them is an opportunity to win 8 games and an opportunity to have 6 Big 12 wins on the year. After the Oklahoma State win, McGuire said in the locker room that the win in Stillwater was great, but that he wants to play better at home and he wants the seniors to go out better than what they’ve played at home this year. As a home favorite, Texas Tech is 2-2-1 against the spread and just 2-3-1 after a win. Texas Tech will need to correct that and punch up against a West Virginia team. Texas Tech has not won 8 games (not including a bowl win) since 2009, which was the last year of the Mike Leach era. This program has been lost in the woods for so long and has the opportunity to do something that hasn’t been done 15 years. Go do the thing.

Opponent Intel

Gap integrity on defense will be absolutely critical. All game long. The WVU running backs are good, make no mistake, the Texas Tech defense stopping the run game will be the most important part of the game. There will be lanes to run on against WVU.

Stats

These two teams are really pretty even with Sharp giving Texas Tech a slight edge, while West Virginia has edges in the other 3 services. West Virginia is really good at stopping the run, but terrible against the pass and if Texas Tech can sustain some drives, this should be a game where the offense has a significant advantage over the Mountaineers. Texas Tech’s defense strangely mirrors West Virginia’s offense in a way I’ve never seen. Texas Tech is just right behind West Virginia in those categories so they should compete well in this game.

Links: Sharp College Football; BCF Toys; ESPN FPI; KFord Ratings; and CFB Graphs.

News:

Senior Day Drip /// 💧 pic.twitter.com/C99WVsUMEB

— Texas Tech Football (@TexasTechFB) November 29, 2024

Dave Campbell’s Texas Football: What Each Texas FBS Program Should Be Thankful For

Red Raider Sports’ Jarrett Ramirez: Senior day emotions not exclusive to Texas Tech’s multi-year mainstays

“I’m definitely already feeling the emotions,” safety CJ Baskerville told the media Tuesday. “I know I was only here for two years but Texas Tech changed my life, it really did. Texas Tech allowed me to come back home and play in front of my friends and family, which I’ve always dreamed of doing. I’ve met the best people here, people that I’ll cherish forever in my life.

Every morning I wake up, I think about how Saturday is gonna be my last time playing in The Jones, I get a little emotional. On Saturday I’m definitely gonna feel some type of way about it, but I’m definitely gonna put it out on the field of how important and how passionate I feel about this place.”

Dallas Morning News’ Justin Apodaca: Texas Tech Prediction: Can Red Raiders close out season on a high note vs. West Virginia?

Lubbock Avalanche-Journal’s Nathan Giese: Texas Tech football seniors reflect on paths that led them to being Red Raiders

A member of Matt Wells’ 2020 recruiting class, Rogers and his roommate of five years, running back Tahj Brooks, are the only remaining members of the class still in a Red Raiders uniform among the scholarship signees. A few walk-ons, such as Trent Low and Joseph Plunk, also remain. But of the 16 players that Wells and co. signed, Rogers and Brooks are all that’s left.

Everybody else has either transferred elsewhere — in some cases, multiple elsewheres — or begun their professional careers. Rogers knows where every one of them is, like Kobee Minor, who’s wrapping up his career at Memphis. Myles Price being part of the resurgence at Indiana. Ja’lynn Polk, who turned a stellar move to Washington into being a second-round NFL Draft pick this past April. Jon-Jon Davis medically retired from playing and is ascending up the coaching ranks.

Lubbock Avalanche-Journal’s Don Williams: Texas Tech football vs. West Virginia: Scouting report, prediction on Big 12 game

Score prediction: Texas Tech 34, West Virginia 26
Bottom line: Tech and WVU have played seven games decided by eight points or fewer in the past 11 years, and this shapes up as another. Tech’s 6-1 in such games this year, and a senior-day home crowd should help the Red Raiders pull out another close one.

WVSports’ Keenan Cummings: Neal’s deal: Five key items from West Virginia football

The Journal’s Derek Redd: WVU Preparing For High-Octane Texas Tech Offense

That has allowed Texas Tech to rank 17th nationally at 450 offensive yards per game and tie for 12th nationally at 37.4 points per game. That could be a problem for a WVU defense that despite an improved performance in a 31-21 win last week over UCF, still sits tied for 95th nationally allowing 29.2 points per game and ranked 97th at 396 yards allowed per game.

“We’ve got to get in line with their tempo,” head coach Neal Brown said. “That’s where they feast. If they get their tempo going, that usually happens after a made first (down) or a really positive play on first down. I think the first play of drives are going to be critical downs for us.”

Linebacker Josiah Trotter agreed that communication on defense will be critical. That has been an issue for the unit in previous games, though players have said it has improved under Koonz, who was promoted to defensive coordinator midseason after Jordan Lesley was fired.

“When you try to go tempo, you’re trying to get it across the board where everyone is on the same page,” he said. “If you can’t get that part across, where you’re communicating, that can hurt you really bad, whether it’s a blown coverage or maybe a misfit in a run gap.

“The biggest thing in going tempo is just getting the call in, making the call and everybody knowing to get set and ready to play.”

Lady Raider Basketball: Lady Raiders fall to RV Florida State

Place Your Bets

Vegas doesn’t think much of Texas Tech, basically at this point, the Red Raiders are favorites only because they are playing at home and see these two teams as virtual equals. The line started at just -3.5 for Texas Tech and has dropped to -3 with 80% of the bets on Texas Tech. I actually like Texas Tech here, I think they’re going to play with some passion and don’t think the 3 is enough.

At the Finish

Give me the Red Raiders by 6 or so. It would be real fun if this could be a game where Texas Tech rolls, but they just haven’t been able to put teams away like that, namely because the defense almost always allows teams to get back into the game and I fear that here with a strong West Virginia running game. Despite my reservations, I’m still taking Texas Tech despite my better judgment.