Texas Tech (6-4, 4-3) vs. Oklahoma State (3-7, 0-7)
When: Saturday, November 23rd @ 2:30 pm
Where: Boone Pickens Stadium | Stillwater, OK
TV & Streaming: ESPN+
Radio: TuneIn Radio
The Line: Texas Tech -3.5
Weather: Partly Cloudy, 63-42
Keys to the Game
- Offensive Pressure. Oklahoma State has struggled defensively in just about every metric. That’s not to say that Oklahoma state can’t play, they can, but by putting pressure on the Cowboys and that not-so-great defense will hopefully put some separation between these two teams and it won’t be as close as it needs to be. The Cowboys defense cannot stop the pass at all, and although I love Tahj Brooks, this is the game to utilize Kelly, Douglas and Hudson (if he’s available) as well as the tight ends.
- The Cowboys Are Still Slingin’. Yes, OSU, despite the fact that there have been middling numbers, are still passing the hck otu of the ball, 18th in pass attempts and 19th in passing yards per game. That’s not necessarily been effective, but this is what’s happening despite the fact that Ollie Gordon is on the team. And I do think that Oklahoma State is dangerous
- Quarterback Safety. Of all things, Oklahoma State is not great at getting to the passer, this again leads me to think that Behren Morton should have a decent time to get those passes off. OSU is 97th in sacks and Texas Tech is 46th in allowed sacks. not a huge advntage, but there is one.
- Convert 3rds. Texas Techis 27th in the nation in 3rd down conversions, 44%, while Oklahoma State’s defense is 111th in stopping third downs. Alternatively, the Cowboys offense is 76th in the nation in converting and believe this or not, the Texas Tech defense is 15th in the nation.
Players to Watch
- QB Alan Bowman (6-3/220): Alan . . . we meet again. Bowman has not had a good year, 61% completion rate, 7.2 yards an attempt, about 241 yards a game, with 16 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. Bowman has thrown an interception every game except for the South Dakota State game and has only thrown 1 touchdowns in the last 6 games. And Bowman threw 5 touchdowns against Tulsa, so do the math on that, take those 5 tuddies away and it’s not been good overall.
- RB Ollie Gordon (6-2/225): Gordon started the year with a bang off the field and thus far on the field it has been mixed. Gordon averages about 71 yards a game, about 4.18 yards a rush, with 10 touchdowns thus far. He is a threat to receive the ball, he catches about 2.5 per game and averages about 5 yards a catch.
- WR Brennan Presley (5-8/175): Presley is the go-to for Bowman as he had 72 catches on the year, averages about 67 yards a game, 9.3 yards a catch, and has 7 touchdowns. I don’t know if he’s a security blanket, but the next closest receiver De’Zhaun Stribling who has 43 receptions (who is a much bigger vertical threat literally at 6-2/200 and is averaging 17 yards a grab and has 5 touchdowns).
- S Trey Rucker (6-0/210): Rucker has been very good for the Cowboys, leads the team by a wide margin with 78 tackles on the year, has 2 interceptions, and 1 TFL.
- DE Obi Ezeigbo (6-2/245): We probably need to highlight an edge player every single time with Texas Tech’s offensive line, and Ezeigbo is tied with the team-lead with 3 sacks on the year, has 35 tackles, 8 tackles for a loss, and 3 quarterback hurries this year.
- CB Korie Black (6-0/190): Black has been very good as well, 3 interceptions thus far this year, 7 passes defended, plus 26 tackles this year. Black hasn’t had a pick since the BYU game, which was just a 3-point win for the Cougars.
One Big Idea
Going to be multiple ideas here that culminate in a big idea. I was listening to the weekly press conference and during that time, McGuire was asked about what went wrong that he’d like to change and he said that the main thing was that he told Zach Kittley to go slower rather than step on the gas during the TCU game.
This maybe leads me to think a couple of things, the first is that as the head coach, McGuire has control over the tempo of the game, if he wants Kittley to go fast or slow, he gets to control that. I think that we all sort of know this, but I think we tend to overlook it in the heat of the moment, namely that KIttley gets all of the blame for how the offense performs, and maybe rightfully so.
The other thing that I think this leads me to is that this is not necessarily the offense that Kittley wants to run, it’s the offense that McGuire wants to run but with Kittley additions. And I am sure that Kittley knew this before he arrived, but if you look at the offenses that Kittley had at Houston Baptist and Western Kentucky, they differ greatly from the offense that you see.
For me, I think this is all logical. McGuire is the head coach and Kittley works for MdGuire, but I tend to think that McGuire has a much greater influence on the offense than we’d like to think. I think that McGuire said he wanted to have a tight end and he wanted power running schemes, that running the ball was as important, maybe more important than passing the ball. And I want to be clear that McGuire as the head coach absolutely should have control over all aspects of the team, I think I sometimes think that the offense isn’t married together as well as it could be at all times.
I know that Kittley has his faults. Heck, not to get too philosophical, we all do. I just tend to think that the offense that you’re seeing is a real combination of two things that sometimes goes well together and sometimes doesn’t.
You have probably noticed that I have pretty well stopped posting on X/Twitter on the STP account. I know what you’re going to say and that I’m going woke or whatever, but I would tell you that my posting on X/Twitter was relegated to just posting links on the STP account and that was it. I have not had a conversation on X/Twitter on the STP account in a really long time, with the thought that that is not the place I want to have a conversation. I think the last straw was that X/Twitter is that they will start to use the content for AI purposes, which if you want to know, is just now catching up to companies like Facebook and Instagram, who have already done this. I’m not overly afraid of AI, but I also don’t feel the need to actively participate in that.
I have a Bluesky account, I think I got it in 2023, so it’s not new and I don’t post there either. I never did Threads because I thought that was a version of Instagram that just never interested me and because it’s tied to Instagram I didn’t feel the need to secure my name.
I have basically stopped posting for much of anything other than to celebrate my kids and I don’t need a social network to do that. I do want to promote Youssouf because I do believe he’s a Division I athlete, but I also realize that him getting a scholarship is going to happen regardless of me posting a video on X/Twitter. He’ll have to do that on his own and that’s the way that it’s happened for a really long time.
So I think I’ve come to the realization that I don’t need a social network. I have STP, I have a personal website, Seeking the Substantial, and that’s more than enough for me. If you need me, I’ll be one of those two places.
And I don’t intend on deleting any accounts and I’m not swearing off social media all together, but I think I do realize that I don’t need it. Or maybe it needs people like me and you much more than I need it. There’s no major declarations on my part like I’m swearing it off, but I just don’t need to post things.
Did the offensive line on Monday. We move on to the defensive line, which we follow the same rules:
Red font = Transfer
Green font = Home grown
Blue font = Walk on
Gray shade = Seniors
Green shade = Juniors
Yellow shade = Sophomores
Blue shade = Redshirt freshmen
Pink shade = Freshmen
Purple shade = Incoming Freshmen
- Take a deep breath. Much like the offensive line, the staff had to take transfers, Carroll and Hansen and they had to play n the rotation because there were no other options.
- The current rotation is Ledet, then Hansen at nose tackle, then Carroll, Cofield, and McAlpine at defensive tackle.
- That’s 3 of the 5 that will no longer be part of the rotation next year.
- Banks should return and that will help, but I am guessing that it’s going to take him a while to be fully healthy.
- I don’t think things are as bleak as the offensive line, but it’s not great. There are 3 walk-on’s that’s part of the roster and the hope is that Cofield and Rigsby make an impact, but they’ll just be sophomores and there’s really only 5 scholarship defensive tackles on the roster. That’s not ideal. Help will need to arrive here as well.
Opponent Intel
BYU really utilized that quarterback run and I hope that McGuire won’t get greedy. The long Ollie Gordon run was a really fun offensive play that flipped the strength of the line with motion and BYU wasn’t ready for that. And Gordon is really good so best not sleep on him. The Rangel pick was inexplicable. BYU’s offensive line is better than Texas Tech’s so don’t equate the same success against the Oklahoma State defense. The Bowman pick was behind the receiver and just a bad throw.
Stats
According to ESPN and Kelly Ford, these teams are awfully close, while FEI and Sharp have them a bit separated with Sharp being the biggest difference. Texas Tech’s offense is really good in comparison to the OSU defense, a huge advantage passing and drive efficiency. The Texas Tech defense has issues with the pass defense still and that is the one strength of the Oklahoma State offense (of course). Please note how good the rush defense has been.
Links: Sharp College Football; BCF Toys; ESPN FPI; KFord Ratings; and CFB Graphs.
News:
Lubbock Avalanche-Journal’s Nathan Giese: Texas Tech football pair facing familiar foes against Oklahoma State
Maurion Horn doesn’t have an exact number of supporters he expects to fill Boone Pickens Stadium on Saturday when the Texas Tech football team visits Oklahoma State.
The Tech starting cornerback will be returning to his home state, playing about 85 miles from his hometown of Broken Arrow. Horn was recruited by both Oklahoma State and Oklahoma as he developed into a two-way standout in the Sooner state, but he stuck with head coach Joey McGuire, who was the first coach to offer him a college scholarship.
Texas Tribune: Texas Tech wants permission to pay college athletes as a part of its recruitment efforts
Detroit Catholic Central offensive tackle Danilo Guberinich (6-5/280) committed to Texas Tech yesterday (Rivals: 2-star | 24/7 Sports: 3-star | On3: 3-star | Hudl). Guberinich looks to be a pretty athletic player, he finishes well and has a bit of attitude, which you always sort of like, a guy that finishes plays. I don’t know if any of you have noticed this, but Texas Tech has only 1 commitment from Texas, Patrick McMath, with the other offensive linemen being from Nebraska (Ren Brown & Garlin Maley), South Dakota (Elias Gillen), and now Michigan (Guberinich).
Lubbock Avalanche-Journal’s Don Williams: Texas Tech football’s Gino Garcia balances pair of career ambitions
The sixth-year senior from Richardson Pearce began working in construction around age 15 and started his own roofing business in August 2021. His brother Mike, 3 1/2 years older, came along a year later, and they’ve added general construction and site work.
“We have three other guys working for us,” Garcia said. “My brother does the labor, and I’m more of the sales guy, going to meet the clients and selling the job.”
Dallas Morning News’ Justin Apodaca: Texas Tech prediction: Will Red Raiders take down struggling Oklahoma State?
Texas Tech Soccer: Tech heads to No. 1 Duke for Round of 32
INSIDE THE MATCHUP:
MATCHUP: No. 8 Texas Tech (15-4-2) vs. No. 1 Duke (15-2-1)
DATE: Friday, November 22, 2024
TIME: 6:30 (ET)/5:30 (CT)
LOCATION: Durham, N.C. (Koskinen Stadium)
WATCH: ESPN+
Place Your Bets
The line began with Texas Tech as a 4.5 favorite and that’s now at 3.5. The weird thing, and maybe this is beyond me, is that 85% of the bets are with Texas Tech (that’s not money, but bets). Oklahoma State is 2-3 against the spread in their last 5 games and Texas Tech is 3-1 against the spread on the road. I’ll take Texas Tech to cover (I’m not happy about making this decision).
At the Finish
If I am taking Texas Tech to cover, then I suppose I’ll take them here to win by 5 in a relatively close game, something like 35-30 in favor of the good guys.