Colorado (6-2, 4-1) vs. Texas Tech (6-3, 4-2)

When: Saturday, November 9th @ 3:00 pm
Where: Jones AT&T Stadium | Lubbock, TX
TV & Streaming: FOX
Radio: TuneIn Radio
The Line: Colorado -4
Weather: Sunny, 64-37

Keys to the Game

1. Capitalize on the Bust. It just so happens that I work with someone that went to Colorado and just in our 5 minute conversation about Colorado, his thought was that Shedeur Sanders tends to hold onto the ball a bit long and he takes a lot of sacks, but then on the very next play he will throw a 35-yard tuddy (that’s what the kids call a touchdown). So the idea here is that Texas Tech has to capitalize on the negative plays, put Colorado in bad spots. Colorado doesn’t really run very much and their success is wholly dependent upon the arm of Shedeur. Focus on that.
2. Who Slows Hunter, Horn & Wester. This is a problem because every one of these guys probably runs a 4.3 and the need to cover all of them is incredibly difficult. I honestly don’t know how Tim DeRuyter is going to figure out this riddle, especially when it takes inside linebacker stunts to create pressure.
3. Offense Will Need to Keep Pace. The Colorado defense is actually very good, better than you think, and this will be one of those situations where the Texas Tech offense might need to keep pace with Colorado because they score 30 points a game whether they are at home or on the road, which could potentially mean less of Tahj Brooks and more of Behren Morton. I’m not advocating that, but Texas Tech can’t afford to get down early if they want Brooks to be part of the offense and it would be beneficial to have Brooks grind out yards, but there might not be much to find.
4. Morton to Calm Down. Morton had some wonky throws last week that led to 2 interceptions. I mentioned this before the last home game, which was that Morton had not thrown a pick at home, and then that’s exactly what he did against Baylor. Regardless, the stats are 19 touchdowns and 5 interceptions, of those 16 touchdowns are at home and 1 pick thrown at home, while he’s throw 3 touchdowns on the road and 4 picks on the road. He’s clearly better at home than on the road by a long shot and that trend has to continue. I should also note that Morton threw only 3 touchdowns for the month of October, very reserved and I think he’ll have to play better if Texas Tech wants to go where I think it wants to go.
5. Protecting Morton and Putting Texas Tech in the Best Position. Colorado is 23rd in the nation with 22 sacks and it is a collective effort with no player having more than 3 sacks. They also have 22 quarterback hurries and 32 passes broken up. The offensive line has been better protecting Morton, but that last Iowa State drive still sticks with me where the offensive line had 3 false start penalties to continue to force Morton and the offense to be even better. That’s lack of focus.

Players to Watch

• WR/DB Travis Hunter (6-1/185): Hunter is amazing, maybe the best football player because he plays both ways a majority of the snaps and is maybe the best receiver and maybe the best defensive back in college football. Hunter has 60 receptions, about 95 yards a game, 8 touchdowns, and 12 yards a catch. On defense Hunter has 21 tackles, 2 interceptions, 1 tackle for a loss, 7 passes broken up, and 1 forced fumble.
• QB Shedeur Sanders (6-2/215): Sanders has been really good, completing 73% of his passes, throws about 324 yards a game, 8.6 yards per attempt, 21 touchdowns and 6 picks. Sanders is pretty much a clinician when it comes to dissecting defenses and it’s been a problem for Big 12 defenses.
• LaJohntay Wester (5-11/167): Jimmy Horn started out really hot, going 7 catches for 198 yards against North Dakota State, but Wester has been better overall, 39 catches for nearly 13 yards a catch and 7 touchdowns.
• LB Nikhai Hill-Green (6-2/230): Hill-Green is a terror at inside linebacker, 59 tackles, 8 tackles for a loss, 2 sacks, 3 passes broken up and a quarterback hurry.
• DE BJ Green II (6-1/270): Green does one thing and it’s one thing really well, he rushes the passer, just 15 tackles, but of those 7 are tackles for a loss, 3 sacks, 3 quarterback hurries, 1 forced fumble, and 1 blocked kick. So getting around the edge is what Green does.
• S Cam’Ron Silmon-Craig (5-10/185): Silmon-Craig has 61 tackles, 6 tackles for a loss, 2 sacks, 3 passes broken up, and 5 quarterback hurries. From the safety spot, he is incredibly active and causes issues all over the field.

One Big Idea

Time was really short this week with Youssouf’s last football game on Wednesday night and then the high school game was moved to last night and with Fitsum in the band and Yo being a ball boy, we’re always there at the varsity games so there’s no time to actually write anything meaningful this week in particular.

I can say that I like the new Mahomes-inspired uniforms and hope they look great on television during the day.

Opponent Intel

Just running away from defenders and an offensive line that seems to get it. that Arizona touchdown was the only one that you’ll see the entire video. Sanders has really nice touch on the ball, which isn’t a surprise. The zone defense got Sanders on that interception, just didn’t see the defender. Surprised to see Sanders run as much as he did, but the field was open and he should have taken those runs.

Stats

Links: Sharp College Football; BCF Toys; ESPN FPI; KFord Ratings; and CFB Graphs.

News:

Game 10: Galvanized 🔥@PatrickMahomes x #WreckEm pic.twitter.com/YUzWTk6dMf

— Texas Tech Football (@TexasTechFB) November 8, 2024

Saturday ⏳@PatrickMahomes x @adidasFballUS pic.twitter.com/uQRnfW0tqD

— Texas Tech Football (@TexasTechFB) November 8, 2024

Daily Camera’s Brian Howell: Run game key factor as No. 21 CU Buffs visit Texas Tech

Lubbock Avalanche-Journal’s Don Williams: Texas Tech football vs. Colorado: Scouting report, prediction on Big 12 game

Score prediction: Colorado 38, Texas Tech 34
Bottom line: Colorado’s trending upward under Deion Sanders, having won five of its past six games and three in a row on the road. The Buffaloes have found a groove, and their passing game could be too much for the Red Raiders to handle.

Dallas Morning News’ Justin Apodaca: Texas Tech prediction: Will Red Raiders top Colorado and contend for Big 12 title?

Buffalo Wire’s Jack Carlough: Five bold predictions for Colorado’s Week 11 game at Texas Tech

Lady Raider Basketball: Sanogo has career night against Houston Christian

Place Your Bets

The line has moved from -2.5 to -4 in favor of Colorado with 93% of the bets placed on the Buffs. It is again difficult ot pick against Buffalo as they are 3-1 against the spread on the road. I think the idea is that Texas Tech is magically better after winning last week, but the pass defense is still a real problem for Texas Tech.

At the Finish

I’ll take Colorado here with the offense being good, but not good enough to out-score Colorado, 42-35.