Texas Tech (5-3, 3-2) vs. Iowa State (7-0, 4-0)

When: Saturday, November 2nd @ 2:30 pm
Where: Jack Trice Stadium | Ames, IA
TV & Streaming: ESPN
Radio: TuneIn Radio
The Line: Iowa State -13.5
Weather: Mostly Cloudy, 60-46

Keys to the Game

1. Lean on Tahj. If there was ever a game where you’d like to lean on your absolute best player, this would be a good place for that. Iowa State does this thing where it looks like you should run the ball, but then the linebackers and safeties close so fast that there’s no space to run. That’s not to say that Iowa State hasn’t given up some running yards, but they are traditionally stingy. This year, it hasn’t been great, about 170 yards a game given up on the ground and I’d like for Texas Tech to get all of them.
2. Baylor & TCU Blueprint.
3. Get Kelly Going. Caleb Douglas has been really good recently, but it seems as if josh Kelly is the one that really jump-starts the offense and I think more of that would be really good for an offense that’s struggling to make things really easy. Kelly is best when he goes downfield, not this sideline bullshit. Yes, get him the ball in space, but do it down the field.
4. No Help On the Way. there is no help on the way for the defense. This is it and they have to figure out a way. This is a battered group and there are parts that are good, but collectively they have been terrible the last few weeks. Internally they have to figure things out. It starts with Jacob Rodriguez and Ben Roberts and has to filter out from there. These are your best players. The one thing that I feel that Joey McGuire says each week is that there are always mental mistakes that end up going for huge plays and that’s what’s has to stop. The mental mistakes. Be perfect.
5. Involve the Tight Ends. This was supposed to be one of the best groups on the team and they’ve all but disappeared in terms of being an effective part of the offense that forces defenses into bad spots because they’re having to account for this position. Jalin Conyers has 1 catch between the last 2 games and was shut-out against Baylor. Mason Tharp has not had more than 1 catch for any game, he can’t just be a blocker. Johncarlos Miller is apparently a defensive end now, but he’s also had 1 catch over the last 4 games.

Players to Watch

• QB Rocco Becht (6-1/210): The stats aren’t eye-popping, but he is not asked to be that. Becht has completed 61% of his passes, 8.4 yards an attempt, 245 yards a game, 11 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. Becht rushed for 97 yards last week against UCF on 20 carries, leading the team. Eyes up.
• RB Carson Hansen (6-2/220)| RB Jaylon Jackson (5-7/180) | RB Abu Sama III (5-11/210): All 3 running backs have between 70 and 60 carries, so this is a three-pronged attack. Hansen has 70 carries on the day and averages over 56 yards a game, 5.5 yards a rush with 7 touchdowns. Jackson averages 47 yards a game, 4.8 yards a rush and has 2 touchdowns, while Sama averages 43 yards a game, 5 yards a rush and 1 touchdown. As a team, the Cyclones are averaging 186 yards a game.
• WR Jaylin Noel (5-11/200) | WR Jayden Higgins (6-4/215): Noel and Higgins are also a 1-2 punch, Noel is the deep threat, 18.4 yards a catch and 97 yards a game with 3 touchdowns, while Higgins averages 12.5 yards a catch, 80 yards a game and has 6 touchdown.
• DB Malik Verdon (6-4/220): Size of a linebacker but playing safety or hybrid. Has 53 tackles thus far, 2.5 tackles for a loss, 1 pick, 2 passes broken up, 1 QB hurry, and a forced fumble. Iowa State always has very busy linebackers and defensive backs and this year is no different.
• DT J.R. Singleton (6-2/305): Singleton is a load, 22 tackles, 3.5 TFL, 3 sacks, 2 QB hurries and 1 forced fumble.
• CB Jontez Williams (5-11/200): Williams has 24 tackles, 2 tackles for a loss, 2 passes broken up and 4 interceptions. Yes, 4 picks thus far in the season.

One Big Idea

Today’s preview would not be done had it not been for me having to spend the night out of town because of work. I’m in beautiful Las Colinas on a Thursday night, hammering out a preview that had not been started until Thursday night. I’m not usually such a procrastinator, but here we are.

One other quick aside, Youssouf’s football team lost 7-6 on Monday night, he had a 60-yard touchdown catch, 2 interceptions, and 2 forced fumbles. Final game is this Monday night.

The big thing is this whole mess with the unencrypted coach communications that was apparently something that was maybe overheard during the Baylor and TCU games. From what I’m able to gather, the Texas Tech staff was presented with audio of their communications from both of those games. Texas Tech did not say that Baylor or TCU did anything wrong, but for those two games, there was audio of their coach conversations. I think that Texas Tech was right to point out to the Big 12 that this was a problem because it was and could have been a big deal later on. I don’t think that Texas Tech pointed the finger at Baylor or TCU other than to say that the audio is out there. No harm and no foul, but trying to correct a thing that was problematic.

Opponent Intel

UCF couldn’t pass to save their lives, but the Golden Knights sure as heck ran the damn hell out of the ball and they did it while on the road. I don’t know how to replicate that, but the offensive line has got to get off their asses and go get this. Iowa State is intent on wearing you out offensively. Becht doesn’t tend to look off his first read, so that might be something to watch. He gets the ball out quick, but UCF seemed to know this.

Stats

The stats are not real encouraging. The Iowa State defense is just better in every category than the Texas Tech offense. And the pass defense is the best in the nation. BEST IN THE NATION. Every single metric. Defensively, I do not now how Texas Tech has a good effective rush defense or disrupts drive efficiency, but okay. iowa State’s offense is

Links: Sharp College Football; BCF Toys; ESPN FPI; KFord Ratings; and CFB Graphs.

News:

Associated Press: No. 11 Iowa State hosts Texas Tech seeking its first 8-0 start in program history

Iowa State Daily’s Brett Twelmeyer: Players to Watch: No. 11 Iowa State vs. Texas Tech

Dallas Morning News’ Justin Apodaca: Texas Tech prediction: Can Red Raiders snap skid against No. 11 Iowa State?

Lubbock Avalanche-Journal’s Don Williams: Texas Tech football at Iowa State: Scouting report, prediction on Big 12 game

Des Moines Register’s Gus Martin: Iowa State vs Texas Tech football prediction, picks, betting odds: Who wins Week 10 game?

Des Moines Register’s Alyssa Hertel: Cyclones coach Matt Campbell previews Iowa State football vs. Texas Tech game

Place Your Bets

I’m still not comfortable betting on Texas Tech on the road against an undefeated opponent. Iowa State started out as a 11-point favorite, the line jumped to -14.5 and now sits at -13.5 with 77% of the bets on Texas Tech. Normally a line of nearly 2 touchdowns is enough to make bettors sway towards the underdog, but not for me (despite Iowa State being 2-2 against the spread at home). I’ll take the Cyclones despite the points.

At the Finish

Given that I’m taking Iowa State here, I think they win by 14 or 17 and it’s going away. If Baylor can do what they did to Texas Tech, Iowa State is a much better version.