Texas Tech (5-2, 3-1) vs. TCU (4-3, 2-2)

When: Saturday, October 26th @ 2:30 pm
Where: Amon G. Carter Stadium | Ft. Worth, TX
TV & Streaming: FOX
Radio: TuneIn Radio
The Line: TCU -6.5
Weather: Sunny, 85-61

Keys to the Game

1. Who Stops the Receivers. Guess what TCU does really well? No wait, don’t guess, I’m just going to tell you that it’s throwing the damn ball and they throw it really well all over the damn field. No pass rush and defensive backs trying to stop three dominant receivers. I don’t know how this story ends, but I’m not real excited about it.
2. Speaking of Pass Rush. TCU is allowing just 0.86 sacks per game, yeah, per game. So we’ve got a defense that’s gotten to the point where they are switching a tight end to defensive end and now there’s an offensive line that’s giving up less than a sack per game. I don’t know how this gets generated, but giving Josh Hoover lots of time isn’t going to work.
3. Baylor Blueprint. It was clear that Baylor didn’t want to give up anything deep, keep everything in front of the defense and not let Behren Morton beat you deep. So there are a few things working, which is that the TCU defense hasn’t been great, there are opportunities but Zach Kittley will need to prepare for TCU to do the same thing and how to create big plays.
4. Return to Being Special. Texas Tech sort of needs for the special teams to return to being special and that cannot be an area where Texas Tech loses 14 points. JP Richardson already has an 89-yard punt return touchdown and Richardson is 3rd nationally in punt returns average. Don’t punt it to him and if you do, you better be really careful.
5. Stars Need to Shine. You win games because you have better players than the opposing team. Texas Tech has good offensive players, at least on the caliber of TCU. On offense or defense, you have to be special. Josh Kelly, Tahj Brooks, Behren Morton, Jacob Rodriguez, Ben Roberts. These guys have to be great and make plays. That’s the deal.

Players to Watch

QB Josh Hoover (6-2/200): Hoover has completed 66% of his passes and averages about 324 yards a game, with 16 touchdowns and 6 interceptions. Not really a runner, so at the very least that’s not something to be overly concerned with at the moment.

RB Cam Cook (5-11/195): Cook is really the only rushing threat, 349 yards, and about 50 yards rushing a game with 6 touchdowns. He’s also a bit of a threat to catch the ball, but hasn’t gone for big yardage, only 3.8 yards a catch.

WR JP Richardson (6-0/195) | WR Jack Bech (6-2/215) | WR Savion Williams (6-5/225): JP Richardson is the son of Bucky Richardson and if you know who Bucky is then you are old (I’m raising my hand). Jack Bech is sort of a revelation, but he’s been pretty good, 42 receptions and 18 yards a catch, with 7 touchdowns, and 107 yards a game. Richardson averages 12 yards a catch and averages 55 yards a game. Savion Williams is exceeding last year’s totals and he seems like a guy that should have better numbers than he does given his size, but he averages about 10 yards a catch, has 4 touchdowns, and averages 50 yards a game.

LB Johnny Hodges (6-2/240): Hodges leads the team with 50 tackles, 3 tackles for a loss.

LB Namdi Obiazor (6-3/220) | LB Cooper McDonald (6-3/240): Obiazor has 44 tackles, 1 interception, 6.5 TFL’s, of those 2.5 are sacks, 2 quarterback hurries and 1 forced fumble. He’s very involved and very busy. McDonald has just 22 tackles, but has 3.5 TFL, 2.5 sacks, 1 pass broken up, 1 quarterback hurry and 1 forced fumble.

One Big Idea

How did TCU lose so many games if they have an offense that can be as dangerous as they are?

Against SMU, they turned the ball over 5 times, 3 fumbles and 2 picks were thrown, and this is with them having 480 total yards of offense, 415 of it passing. The defense also gave up 238 yards rushing, again, there is yards there to be had, and allowed 7 of 12 on 3rd down. Against Houston, the Cougars ran for 207 yards and they had 4 turnovers, 2 fumbles and 2 interceptions, while only being able to run the ball themselves for 66 yards. Against UCF, TCU gave up 289 yards rushing and allowed 11 of 16 on 3rd down, while TCU had 402 yards passing, and only 58 rushing. It would seem, again, that running the ball would be a huge advantage here for Texas Tech, but Texas Tech isn’t truly efficient at running the ball and if Texas Tech wants to win this game, this would be the place to start. And Texas Tech has to decide who they want to be, do they want to be a contender or a pretender. A week changes so much, and I’m not overly confident in going up against TCU, but it’s not as if they are some team that’s unstoppable, but the Red Raiders have to be better.

Opponent Intel

Zone defense and there will be pockets available. Have I mentioned how good the receivers for TCU are? And there should be spots available for Texas Tech to run, but the offensive line has to be better. I don’t think they’ve been good enough at imposing their will and that’s just not good enough.

Stats

These teams really are pretty even overall, but note that the Texas Tech rush effectiveness does not have an advantage against the TCU defense, but does have a passing advantage. And not having an explosive offense is still a problem. Also note that TCU can’t run the ball to save their lives, but the passing game is elite.

Links: Sharp College Football; BCF Toys; ESPN FPI; KFord Ratings; and CFB Graphs.

News:

New @adidasFballUS combo unlocked /// 🔓@TheDevCromwell | #WreckEm pic.twitter.com/qZfKVHSsJg

— Texas Tech Football (@TexasTechFB) October 24, 2024

The @PatrickMahomes Galvanized unis

They’re in the game 🎮 @EASPORTSCollege pic.twitter.com/Dxa0InWkck

— Texas Tech Football (@TexasTechFB) October 24, 2024

Texas Tech Soccer: No. 14 Tech welcomes BYU for regular season finale — Needing just a victory to clinch the second-straight Big 12 title, the Red Raiders can clinch the Big 12 title with a win and either a loss or draw by TCU, or a draw and a loss by TCU. If both the Red Raiders and Horned Frogs are victorious, Tech would share the Big 12 title with the Horned Frogs.

INSIDE THE MATCHUP:
MATCHUP: No. 14 Texas Tech (13-2-2, 8-0-2 Big 12) vs. BYU (7-5-5, 5-2-3 Big 12)
DATE: Thursday, Oct. 24, 2024
TIME: 7 p.m.
LOCATION: Lubbock, Texas (John Walker Soccer Complex)
WATCH: ESPN+

Texas Tech Volleyball: Red Raiders take down Cincinnati in five

Texas Tech Softball: Tech topples Lubbock Christian 17-1

Red Raider Sports’ Jarrett Ramirez: Texas Tech opens two-game road stretch at TCU with saddle up for grabs

Dallas Morning News’ Justin Apodaca: Texas Tech prediction: Which version of the Red Raiders will show up against TCU?

Place Your Bets

I almost always look at the public bets and wanna guess the percentage of public bets on Texas Tech? I’ll give you a second. It’s currently at 95% with the line at 6.5 and even creeped up to 7 at some point yesterday, but went back to 6.5. My confidence gets shattered after a bad week. TCU is 0-3 against the spread at home thus far and 0-4 as the favorite. Texas Tech is 1-0 as the underdog and 1-1 on the road ATS. I’m currently shook by last week’s loss, and I’m taking TCU despite my pom-poms.

At the Finish

I really don’t see how Texas Tech stops TCU from throwin’ darts all over the field and I don’t see how Texas Tech can cover. I know this is defeatist. The only caveat is that TCU can’t really run the ball, but neither could Baylor until last week. The Texas Tech defense is in a bad way right now. I’ll take TCU 35-24.