Texas Tech (5-1, 3-0) vs. Baylor (2-4, 0-4)

When: Saturday, October 19th @ 3:00 pm
Where: Jones AT&T Stadium | Lubbock, TX
TV & Streaming: ESPN2
Radio: TuneIn Radio
The Line: Texas Tech -6.5
Weather: AM Showers, 70-59

Keys to the Game

1. Baylor Road Woes. Baylor’s offense really hums at home, 435 yards of offense compared to 291 on the road, 35 points scored at home and 21 scored on the road. Defensively, it’s more of the same, giving up just 13 points at home and 35 on the road. Some of that who Baylor has played, but it emphasizes that playing on the road is difficult for most teams.
2. Key Third Downs. Huge disparity again at home and the road, offense for Baylor converts 45% of third downs at home and just 33% on the road, while the defense allows just 27% at home, but 43% on the road. We’ve somewhat talked about this, but the third downs for the Texas Tech offense has really been pretty good, 53% at home and 40% on the road, while the defense has done the exact opposite of what you would expect, 48% allowed at home and just 22% on the road. Again, who you play is important, but Texas Tech will need to take advantage of Baylor’s road struggles.
3. Watch the Turnovers. Texas Tech has been really good about turnovers, but Baylor has been wild. At home, the Bears are -1 with 6 turnoves gained, but 7 lost (3 fumbles and 4 picks), while on the road, they only have 1 interception gained and lost 3 (2 fumbles and an interception). It’s been an obvious point of emphasis for Texas Tech, but at home, Texas Tech is a +1.25 with 7 turnovers gained (2 fumble recoveries and 5 interceptions) and just 1 fumble lost and 1 interception. I don’t see Tahj Brooks fumbling twice in this week’s game and am guessing he got a season’s worth of fumbles out in just 1 game.
4. Yards Gained. The road and home offensive and defensive splits are certainly encouraging. Texas Tech runs the ball for 189 yards a game at home with 8 touchdowns, while just 133 on the road. The passing offense has been relatively consistent, 296 at home and 279 on the road, but the scoring is definitely up. At home, Behren Morton has thrown 13 touchdowns to just 1 interception at home and 2 and 2 on the road. The passing defense has been abysmal at home, allowing 358 at home and just 208 on the road and if that number can come down just a bit, that would be highly encouraging.
5. Match Baylor’s Desperation. I don’t know if it is approppriate to think that Baylor will be playing as a desperate team, a team with nothing to lose and everything to gain, upsetting Texas Tech at home, for their homecoming, ruining a perfect conference record and upending the Red Raiders’ season. I know that this is what I’d be preaching to Baylor if I was their coach. And it will be imperative that Texas Tech match Baylor’s desperation and emotion on Saturday. Texas Tech has had a week off to get healthy and it would seem that their desire to be a great team would not be a problem and Baylor is the next obstacle on the schedule.
6. Run Fits. Can’t stop. Won’t stop.

Players to Watch

QB Sawyer Robertson (6-4/220): The West Texas native returns home, completing 59% of his passes, 7.4 yards a game, 209 yards a game, 9 touchdowns, and 3 picks. Not only that, but Robertson can really run, 27 attempts and 140 yards rushing.

RB Bryson Washington (6-0/203) & RB Dawson Pendergrass (6-2/218): Baylor really splits the running game between 5 players (including Robertson) and Washington and Pendergrass are the two biggest ball carriers, both average a shade over 4 yards a carry and Washington averages about 46 yards a game and Pendergrass averages about 30. Robertson leads the team with 3 rushing touchdowns, which means that they don’t really have a running back that punches the ball in the end zone.

WR Josh Cameron (6-2/218) & WR Ashtyn Hawkins (5-10/165): Cameron is a physical specimen, 18 receiptions for 277 yards and 4 touchdowns, averaging 15 yards a catch. Hawkins is a bit smaller, but very effective, 14.5 yards a catch, and 2 touchdowns. Baylor really doesn’t have “a guy” but really spreads the ball around and these are the two main receivers.

LB Keaton Thomas (6-2/224) & LB Matt Jones (6-4/246): Thoms is a big linebacker with 52 tackles on the season, a pick-6, 3.0 tackles for a loss and 1 sack. Jones is an even bigger linebacker from Midland with 50 tackles, 4.5 tackles for a loss, a sack, 2 passes broken up, and 2 quarterback hurries. Very active linebackers.

OLB Garmon Randolph (6-8/260) & OLB Steve Linton (6-5/237): Randolph has only 12 tackles, but 2.5 sacks and an interception. Linton is a former Red Raider with 13 tackles, 2 sacks and 2 quarterback hurries.

One Big Idea

The SEC and the Big Ten will be in charge until they are not. I only have time to follow this sort of stuff when I have free time and I have free time (a Monday off of work). Yahoo’s Ross Dellinger put it perfectly when the Big Ten commissioner Tony Petitti and SEC commissioner Greg Sankey met recently and they believe that they are in control and will implement the next phase of college athletics:

For the most part, they believe they are in control of the future playoff format (not the other eight FBS leagues). They will oversee the implementation of a new enforcement model under the impending revenue-sharing concept (not the NCAA). And they could — most believe they will — overhaul the way in which their schools participate in the postseason (bowls?).

Thursday’s meeting, while not producing real decisions, is a clear first step to eventually reaching those decisions. It is a leap forward to change, a jump to transformation in the most volatile era in the history of the industry.

Buckle up. The road is bumpy.

“Those who have the gold make the rules,” said one Big 12 athletic director.

Why is this even coming up, well, Dellenger reported on Project Rudy, which is a super-league concept with private equity promising the world:

Spearheaded by former Disney executives-turned-investment professionals, Project Rudy is a super league-esque concept — separate and more simplified than the one made public last week — that incorporates football programs of the four power conferences in a 70-team structure. The model preserves the four power conferences, expands the postseason, overhauls scheduling, tiers revenue distribution and, most importantly, infuses as much as $9 billion of private capital cash into the system.

The architects behind the model work for Smash Capital, a venture capital and private equity firm with offices in Los Angeles and New York. Representatives from Smash Capital declined to comment when reached last week, but their concepts are outlined in a 14-slide presentation obtained by Yahoo Sports.

Over the last four months, athletic directors at more than 25 power conference programs have seen the presentation, many of them in person during meetings with Smash Capital representatives. Others held only phone or Zoom calls about Project Rudy, its name a nod to the famous Notre Dame walk-on, Rudy Ruettiger. Three of four power conference commissioners were shared details of the model directly from the architects as well (those from the SEC, Big 12 and ACC).

This all sounds terrible and still don’t quite understand why private equity needs to be involved for this to take place. The concept of the plan is named after Rudy Ruettiger (never saw Rudy so won’t comment on that) and ironically, Ruettiger was involved in a pump and dump scheme to defraud investors of a sports drink company. Back to Project Rudy, here is a summary of what it entails:

Project Rudy is built on two somewhat simple concepts to increase revenue from television networks and corporate sponsors.

(1) Arrange more games between power conference programs by eliminating all games against Group of Five and FCS opponents; expanding the playoffs; and pitting blue-blood powers more often against one another.

(2) Consolidate the media rights of the 70 schools under one agreement, instead of the current structure of five different packages (one for each power league and Notre Dame).

The plan’s other concepts — tiered distribution with relegation, for instance — hinge on the cash boon from those two ideas. According to the slide presentation, the proposed changes will result in an increase of media and sponsorship revenue of about $15 billion over a 12-year period.

The growth is derived from holding 1.5 times more “marquee” games (playoffs, top bowls) and three times more “quality” games (rivalries and blue-blood matchups); while eliminating games against non-power opponents (currently 18% of FBS scheduling).

An upfront infusion of $5.3 billion in private capital — borrowed from future media revenues — would provide schools immediate cash during a three-year transition period, helping them buy out non-power opponents and supplementing their annual television distribution. Television distribution, normally split evenly across conference members, provides schools their main source of revenue to fund athletic department expenses. It is the driving force for the most recent wave of conference realignment, as schools eschew historic rivalries and geographic footprints to shift to leagues with TV deals that pay out more money.

Under the Smash plan, once current conference media deals end in seven to 10 years, a consolidated, centrally negotiated media deal is struck with Smash and the networks, themselves owning equity in the new “league.” The centralized, for-profit “league,” as it is described in the slide deck, keeps 5-12.5% of new revenues after distributing guaranteed payments to schools (no school will see a decrease in its distribution from what it receives or is projected to receive under its current media contracts).

Again, this all feels so gross that we’re at this point, but there’s no stopping the path forward. The good news is that I think there are people who are associated with Texas Tech that have a plant. From the involvement with adidas to the smoothly run Matador Club to Cody Campbell (and I am sure others, but he is the most public facing) making sure that Texas Tech is in the best possible position to be in moving forward. I truly believe that to be the cash.

Opponent Intel

BYU is definitely taking advantage of the small to intermediate stuff. Utilizing play action is definitely a thing that Texas Tech will able to do. Baylor was upended by turnovers early and I do think that their ability to come back says that they aren’t giving-in to just losing every game. They have fight for sure.

Baylor also really likes to spread you out like the Briles-era football, very wide receiver splits. I also have doubts about Baylor’s ability to run the ball on a consistent basis.

And I do want to be clear, Robertson is a heck of an athlete, that run up the middle is high-end for sure.

Again, BYU takes advantage of the intermediate stuff until the deep threat is open and they have one-on-one coverage.

Stats

Links: Sharp College Football; BCF Toys; ESPN FPI; KFord Ratings; and CFB Graphs.

News:

Yes, that’s me with Matt Mosley who is on in Central Texas and a Baylor alum, and he’s also a high school classmate. We talk Baylor and Texas Tech!

Texas Tech Soccer: Parsons PK, Nguyen’s heroics push No. 19 Tech past WVU, 1-0

Dallas Morning News’ Justin Apodaca: Texas Tech prediction: Can Red Raiders keep pace atop Big 12 against Baylor?

Red Raider Sports’ Jarrett Ramirez: What’s at stake as Texas Tech prepares to host Baylor

Place Your Bets

The current line is Texas Tech -6.5. The original line was -8 and 100% of the public money was on Baylor with 56% of the public bets now on Texas Tech with the current line. My natural inclination is that Texas Tech plays a close game, maybe that’s because the past two conference games were within a touchdown and the Arizona State game was an 8-point affair. Baylor is 1-2 against the spread on the road and 1-2 as an underdog. I’ll take Texas Tech in this game, not because I think this will be a blowout, but do think that this will be a game that Texas Tech wins by a touchdown.

At the Finish

Give me Texas Tech, 42-35. I think this will be a high scoring affair. Texas Tech isn’t great against the pass and Robertson has been really good, I don’t know that Texas Tech stops the Baylor offense as much as I’d like.