Texas Tech (5-1, 3-0) vs. Baylor (2-4, 0-4)

When: Saturday, October 19th @ 3:00 pm
Where: Jones AT&T Stadium | Lubbock, TX
TV & Streaming: ESPN2
Radio: TuneIn Radio
The Line: Texas Tech -6.5
Weather: Showers, 69-49

Dave Aranda was to get one more shot this year to prove himself. A new offensive coordinator in order to right the ship and the record indicates that it’s just not going to happen. I like Aranda, he’s quiet and I think he’s a defensive whiz, but it’s just not working out. The only Big 12 title that Aranda had was with Rhule’s (and McGuire’s) players. As of now, Baylor is 93rd in the nation in yards per play and 42nd in the nation in defense.

Jake Spavital is the offensive coordinator, yes, brother to former Red Raider coach Zac Spavital. Jake spent last year as the OC at California and prior to that he was the head coach at Texas State from 2019 through 2022. In watching the offense, I actually think it’s good and fine, but the results just haven’t happened just yet.

Matt Powledge is the defensive coordinator, having spent 2022 in Oregon as the DC and prior to that was the special teams coordinator at Baylor in 2022 and 2021. I think for the record, Aranda is really coordinator the defense and Powledge is there, probably upstairs helping Aranda identify things to exploit.

A couple of other interesting things, which is that Baylor hired away Kehnon Hall from SMU to be the running back coach and apparently an incredible recruiter. Kevin Curtis is the cornerbacks coach and former defensive lineman Aaron Hunt is the person in charge of player personnel, which is ironic because Brian Nance, a former Baylor Bear, is the director of player personnel at Texas Tech.

STOCK UP:

+ I thought this would be a good time to look at the conference as a whole and I use Sharp College Football, this time I’m using ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s SP+ figures from Sunday. The first number after the record is bolded and it is the overall rating, then the offense is underlined, the defense is italicized and the last number is special teams with no formatting.

+ SP+ is intended to be forward facing and not based on resume, so it is looking ahead and despite the record of a team like TCU, Connelly’s figures still have TCU being a very good team and thinking that they will finish ahead of Texas Tech.

Team Rating Offense Defense Spec Tms
16. Kansas St. (5-1) 15.0 35.7 (16) 21.0 (33) 0.3 (28)
18. Iowa St. (6-0) 14.3 30.4 (50) 16.0 (11) -0.1 (82)
29. BYU (6-0) 11.7 31.9 (42) 20.3 (31) 0.2 (45)
33. Utah (4-2) 10.7 27.1 (71) 16.5 (13) 0.1 (62)
37. TCU (3-3) 8.4 35.4 (18) 26.6 (60) -0.4 (123)
43. W. Virginia (3-3) 7.2 34.1 (26) 27.2 (67) 0.2 (38)
44. Cincinnati (4-2) 7.1 32.5 (37) 25.4 (55) 0.1 (67)
45. UCF (3-3) 6.9 31.1 (45) 24.3 (51) 0.1 (49)
46. Arizona St. (5-1) 6.8 30.4 (49) 23.3 (45) -0.3 (107)
48. Texas Tech (5-1) 6.3 34.2 (24) 28.3 (76) 0.3 (21)
50. Kansas (1-5) 6.2 33.2 (31) 27.2 (68) 0.3 (30)
54. Colorado (4-2) 5.7 33.5 (29) 27.5 (70) -0.3 (111)
55. Oklahoma St. (3-3) 5.5 31.7 (43) 26.3 (59) 0.1 (59)
60. Arizona (3-3) 4.6 29.9 (52) 25.7 (56) 0.4 (10)
62. Baylor (2-4) 4.1 27.7 (65) 23.8 (48) 0.1 (57)
77. Houston (2-4) -2.1 24.2 (91) 25.9 (58) -0.4 (133)

+ Other 3-3 teams that SP+ likes better than Texas Tech are West Virgnia and UCF, UCF having just benched Jefferson to go with a freshman quarterback and West Virginia having been demolished at home by Iowa State.

+ Connelly has Texas Tech’s offense being top 25, which is interesting considering everyone’s opinion about the offense, including some other advanced stats.

STOCK DOWN:

– I think one of the reasons why Texas Tech’s chances aren’t great? Aside from hosting Baylor at home, the Red Raiders are on the road against TCU and Iowa State back-to-back, the first time they’ve been on the road back-to-back this season, then host Colorado before getting back on the road to face Oklahoma State before ending the season at home against West Virginia.

– That’s 3 teams with a higher rating than Texas Tech to finish the season, two of them coming up in a couple of weeks.

– The defense gets a ding by Connelly’s numbers, which makes sense considering how it’s allowed a ton of yards, but hve come up big in key situations. We’ll see how good they are moving forward.

BIG 12 PUZZLE:

Last Week: BYU remains undefeated and they do it in resounding fashion, blowing out Arizona, 41-19. A 20-point win, and they do it by scoring 14, 13, and 14 points in quarters 2 through 4 . . . Kansas State maybe should not have had a close game, but they did, and they won on the road, which they needed to do, and hold off Colorado who made a furious comeback attempt. This is a strong win for the Wildcats . . . Arizona State gets a strong win against Utah, Skattebo rushes for 158 and Texas Tech’s win against Arizona State looks really good to me at this point. . . Cincinnati might have the best quarterback in the Big 12 (not named Sanders) and he’s got Cincy winning 19-13, not a ton of points, but a win on the road against UCF is a good deal . . . Iowa State dominated West Virginia on the road, 28-16 and they look like the best team in conference (the Cyclones also have a terrific quarterback) . . .

This Week: A full slate of Big 12 games where the leaders have a chance to put some distance on teams . . . the game of week for me is Arizona State at Cincinnati, Cincinnati is a quality team in my book and so is Arizona State and Cincy is favored by 3. . . Iowa State has the chance to get another win, hosting a 1-2 UCF and favored by 13 . . . Kansas State hits the road for the 2nd straight week, this time in West Virginia and favored by just 3 . . . Oklahoma State has to travel to Provo to take on BYU and there’s a chance that Oklahoma State starts the season 0-4, BYU is favored by 9 . . . I’m not sure what Arizona actually is, but they will host Colorado and I like the Buff’s defense more than I thought I would before the season, Arizona favored by 3.5 . . . Kansas has a chance to win their first conference game hosting Houston and are favored by 6.5 . . . and TCU heads to Salt Lake City to take on Utah, both teams are 1-2 in the Big 12 thus far, Utah favored by a touchdown . . .

NEWS:

Texas Tech soccer took down Iowa State 2-0 yesterday afternoon, a goal by Macy Blackburn and a PK by Ashleigh Williams helped defeat the Cyclones. Texas Tech has 21 shots compared to just 2 for Iowa State. The ladies will hit the road to play their next game against West Virginia on Thursday evening.

Not a ton of links this morning, but I did have a bunch on Friday and Saturday that you can check out if you haven’t already (including some good baseball links if you’re up for that).