Just wanted to appreciate where things sit. As of now, Texas Tech has a 59% chance of winning 8 games and 6 conference games. That’s not a bad deal. A 68% chance to beat Baylor leads the way, then 56% chance to beat Colorado and a 51% chance to beat West Virginia. That’s probably about right. Ford doesn’t like Texas Tech’s defense as much as Sharp College Football, but does have the offense as top 3rd.

#28 TEXAS TECH pic.twitter.com/jlo7Mkxi8L

— Kelley Ford (@KFordRatings) October 8, 2024

STOCK UP:

+ It feels good to feel good, doesn’t it. Imagine how the players feel as they won that game on Saturday night, Sunday morning? For us as fans, it is probably just a small part of what they are feeling and they’ve earned the 5 wins thus far on the schedule. Without a doubt, the Abilene Christian game seems like a distant memory and if you are wondering, they are 4-2 on the year, with another loss to Idaho by 3 and Nehemiah Martinez and Maverick McIvor are absolutely balling out. Back to Texas Tech, I think the thing that I absolutely love is that there is significant effort on both sides of the ball. That feels different and it feels good.

+ The defensive ingenuity is really something and Tim DeRuyter deserves a ton of credit, as does the entire staff really. They’ve been down starters from the get-go and they were embarrassed at home by ACU. Some way and some how, the staff continues to figure out ways to get it done, have come up with key turnovers, and the players themselves have never given in. Quite an accomplishment.

+ I understand why the offense doesn’t get as much love, but I do think it’s important that maybe it is intentionally being de-emphasized in a way that is okay. The offense is more explosive than last year, is leaning on a running game that’s saved the Red Raiders’ bacon a few times, and an offense that is as reliant on the defense as the defense is reliant on the offense. And they also make big plays time and again, that’s a pretty cool thing.

STOCK DOWN:

– It’s tough to complain about a lot when you’re 5-1. We’ll use advanced stats from Sharp College Football to discuss some things. Believe it or not, the effective rush is only 89th in the nation, so not as effective of a running team as you’d like and you can probably think that this is not the fault of Tahj Brooks. I tend to think that when the offensive line gets squared away, they are pretty good, but they are inconsistent. I’d also add that when we talk about offensive efficiency, I think people tend to think that the rushing game doesn’t have much to do with Kittley, but it’s the passing game they associate with him. The effective pass is 37th in the nation, so not great, but decent enough.

– The other offensive negatives are explosive drives, 82nd in the nation and 70th in the nation in reducing negative drives. It feels like the explosiveness is better than last year and that’s true, but not by much. Last year Texas Tech was 91st in explosive drives and 78th in play efficiency. The biggest improvement was effective passing, 73rd in the nation last year, so the passing game has been markedly better.

– Defensively, the advanced stats love Texas Tech’s defense. Their worst metric is play efficiency, 46th in the nation and after that, 36th in the nation in negative drives. That’s not bad overall and I think what you’re seeing is that although yards are allowed, the defense makes stops, gets turnovers, or forces field goals.

BIG 12 PUZZLE:

Last Week: What the hell happened to TCU? They get boat-raced by Houston, who had not won a conference game, 30-19. I’m not watching enough TCU to know what’s happening, but the confidence in Sonny Dykes by the TCU faithful is waning . . . The game was closer than the score, things sort of snowballed in the second half as Iowa State doubled up Baylor, 43-21. I don’t think that Baylor is a bad football team, but they are struggling to win games . . . I suppose we can ask the same question about TCU as well as Oklahoma State, West Virginia smacked the Pokes around 38-14 in Stillwater. I don’t know if it is Alan Bowman not being able to get things done, but OSU is not who we thought they were before the season . . . preseason darling Kansas is 0-3 and lost to Arizona State 35-31, while Skattebo had 182 rushing yards for the Sun Devils . . .

This Week: The game of the week might be Kansas State at Colorado, the early line has Kansas State by 4.5. I think the Colorado offense is for real, but am not sure about their defense and think this will be a big test. Kansas State needs to win on the road to prove they are the best in the Big 12 . . . Iowa State takes their undefeated record and travels to West Virginia, Iowa State is favored by 3 . . . Arizona travels to Provo to take on BYU, also undefeated, the Cougs being 4 point favorites . . . two 1-1 conference teams, Cincinnati at UCF and I don’t even want to think about how the latest hurricane might affect the people in Florida and this game . . . Friday night lights as Utah travels to Arizona State, Utah needs to get right after a stinker the week before, the Utes are favored by 6 . . .

NEWS:

College Hoops Daily’ Jon Rothstein reports that Texas Tech and Grant McCasland signed a one-year extension, extending his deal through 2029-30 season. I am sure he received a raise as well as an extension on his current deal.