Texas Tech (4-1, 2-0) vs. Arizona (3-1, 1-1)

When: Saturday, October 5th @ 10:00 pm
Where: Arizona Stadium | Tucson, AZ
TV & Streaming: FOX
Radio: TuneIn Radio
The Line: Arizona -6.5
Weather: Sunny, 101-73

Keys to the Game

1. A Tough Run. Utah had a tough go at it last Saturday, 29 rushing attempts and just 84 yards, averaging 2.9 yards per attempt. Utah didn’t really have a great option at quarterback that was a true threat, so maybe that makes a difference, but Arizona was incredibly stingy on Saturday night and my guess is that they will force the ball out of Tahj Brooks’ hands. Other teams have forced Behren Morton to beat them and that hasn’t turned out real well. Arizona is going to be physical and tough.
2. Planning for a Dual Threat. Not necessarily Noah Fifita, but Kedrick Reescano and Quali Conley presented a formidable rushing attach, Reescano had 74 yards on just 7 carries and Conley had 75 on 14 attempts. Reescano originally committed to Ole Miss I think and is originally from New Caney, Texas, but he’s the home run threat for Arizona.
3. Someone Needs to Beat Davis. Tacario Davis is a huge defensive back, 6-4/190, already has 5 passes broken up thus far this season and has been a stopper at one cornerback position. I am actually guessing that Davis follows Coy Eakin because Josh Kelly is going to be able to flow up and down the different spots. This will probably be the toughest match-up for Coy Eakin for the season and Eakin has been a huge touchdown threat, 5 TD’s in 17 receptions. Opportunities for Caleb Douglas and Kelly and Jalin Conyers and Johncarlos Miller should be available.
4. Defense Has to Be Great. Somewhat of an understatement and really pretty simplistic because the Arizona offense is pretty well ahead of the Texas Tech defense in almost every metric and has huge advantages in play efficiency, effective pass and negative drives (see below). It will take a monumental performance from the defense or significant improvement.
5. Contain Fifita. Fifita will extend plays and he’s very mobile and the Texas Tech defense just has 4 sacks on the year. That’s it and that’s 121st in the nation, tied with South Alabama, Massachusetts, Georgia Southern, Rutgers and other defensive teams. The defensive line will need to contain and at the very least pressure Fifita.
6. Run Fits. Let’s see if it works one more week.

 

Players to Watch

QB Noah Fifita (5-10/188): A dynamo last year, he’s been a bit subdued this year. Completes 63% of his passes and is averaging about 265 yards a game, 8.2 yards an attempt, 7 touchdowns and 4 picks. Last year, Fifita had 25 touchdowns and just 6 picks so something is a bit off this year.

WR Tetairoa McMillan (6-5/212): Maybe the most dominant receiver in the nation, but that’s a really crowded field. A really imposing receiver and is averaging 125 yards a game, 17 yards a catch, and has 4 touchdowns on the year. He is the main guy, he averages 7.3 receptions per game.

LB Jacob Manu (5-11/228) & LB Taye Brown (6-2/225): With a 4-2-5 defense, the linebackers are key and prominent as part of the offense. Manu has 34 tackles, 3 tackles for a loss, 1 pass broken up, and 2 quarterback hurries. Brown has 30 tackles, 3 tackles for a loss, and 2 sacks. These two will be all over the field on Saturday night.

DE Ta’it’i Uiagalelei (6-4/280) & DE Trey Smith (6-5/270): Uiagalelei is getting after the quarterback, but just hasn’t been able to seal the deal. Has just 9 tackles, 2 tackles for a loss, 1 sack, but 7 quarterback hurries. Smith has 17 tackles, 3.5 tackles for a loss, 1 sack, 1 pass broken up, 1 forced fumble, and 7 quarterback hurries. The tackles are going to have a long day facing these two.

One Big Idea

There’s been some statistical analysis about how the NFL’s explosive passing game has disappeared:

The league’s passing data through three weeks is indeed jarring—and not in a good way. This is the first time since 2008 that there have been fewer than 20,000 passing yards across the league through the first three weeks. Air yards per attempt are the lowest they’ve been since tracking began in 2006, sack rates are the highest we’ve seen this millennium, and the rate of completions over 20 yards hasn’t been this low since 2003. Only two quarterbacks are averaging at least 275 passing yards a game in the first three games (Brock Purdy and Dak Prescott), and there are only eight quarterbacks with five or more passing touchdowns.

As you all have probably guessed, everything is cyclical and defenses, eventually adjust to the offenses. And this isn’t to say that passing isn’t going to be important, or maybe still more important than running the ball, but I do think that McGuire and Kittley were a bit ahead of the curve and since McGuire arrived, he wanted a very physical running game that at the very least complimented the passing game and in some instances, was more important than the passing game. It’s not uncommon for colleges to be ahead of the pros, but I do feel like that this was always a point of emphasis for McGuire and I also think that he knew that the passing offense was anemic last year and needed more juice. The running game doesn’t work nearly as well if you have zero respect for the receivers.

Opponent Intel

Arizona will take shots and they are explosive. Buckle up. Offensively there will be spots to gain yards and I think this is going to be a game where the offense keeps pace.

Stats

I’m surprised that CFB Graphs has Texas Tech as a good favorite. The Arizona offense isn’t as good as the talent they have, not as consistent, but coming off of a big win against Utah and then being at home, I just don’t see it.

Links: Sharp College Football; BCF Toys; ESPN FPI; KFord Ratings; and CFB Graphs.

News:

⚪️ ⚪️ ⚫️ #WreckEm pic.twitter.com/31VhRAlVPE

— TexasTechEquipment (@TTU_EQUIPMENT) October 3, 2024

Lubbock Avalanche-Journal’s Nathan Giese: In Tahj Brooks’ pursuit of Texas Tech football history, patience is a virtue

“My first two years, I wasn’t really as patient as you think I am now,” Brooks said Tuesday. “I had to grow into that, and then really just growing into just seeing a lot more football than I have my first two years. I’ve seen a lot of football. I’ve seen a lot of blitzes. I’ve went against a lot of defensive coordinators that are in the NFL or on their way to the NFL, so I’ve seen all different types of looks.
“Patience comes with it and then just being successful and making guys miss.”

The Associated Press: Texas Tech heads on the road to face Arizona in teams’ first Big 12 meeting

Texas Tech and Arizona will be playing their first game as Big 12 opponents, but their history goes way back. The Red Raiders and Wildcats were once members of the Border Conference, which began in 1931 and continued to 1962. Arizona won the last meeting 28-14 at home in 2019. … Texas Tech is 2-0 to open conference play for the first time since 2013. …. Texas Tech has won 12 games through 20 games under coach Jerry McGuire, most since Steve Sloan had 14 from 1975-77. … Arizona DL Tre Smith is third nationally with 12 quarterback hurries. … Texas Tech’s Josh Kelly leads the BS with 14 catches on third downs, including 10 that resulted in first downs.

Texas Tech Volleyball: Tech defeats Wildcats in Big 12 home opener

Texas Tech Soccer: Tech returns home; welcomes Baylor Friday

Texas Tech Baseball: Las Vegas Classic announces schedule

Dallas Morning News’ Justin Apodaca: Texas Tech prediction: Can Red Raiders overcome road struggles against Arizona?

Red Raider Sports’ Jarrett Ramirez: The Promise, The Suit, The Hit: A family is forever tied to Tech vs Arizona

Place Your Bets

I don’t like this game and the spread doesn’t bother me all that much, I’m taking the Wildcats even at 6.5 and the public is in the same boat, 71% of the bets are in favor of Arizona. I don’t feel good about it, but I think I need to see it from Texas Tech, plus a beat up secondary for Texas Tech and a star receiver for Arizona, plus a terrible road record.

At the Finish

By taking Arizona and those points, it’s clear who I think will win. I actually think that Texas Tech has the better offense, but I have serious questions about how the Texas Tech defense will perform, and I’m even on the side of things where despite the numbers, the defense has made some big plays. I’ll take Arizona, 42-34.