Cincinnati (3-1, 1-0) vs. Texas Tech (3-1, 1-0)

When: Saturday, September 28th @ 7:00 pm
Where: Jones AT&T Stadium | Lubbock, TX
TV & Streaming: ESPN2
Radio: TuneIn Radio
The Line: Texas Tech -3.5
Weather: Sunny, 90-57

Keys to the Game

1. Be Normal. The versatility of Texas Tech’s offense is a plus. I think it is safe to say that the offense is reliant around Tahj Brooks being a threat, but don’t think it is completely dependent on him. I think that was a poor excuse for the Washington State loss. Brooks needs to be himself, but the line and Behren Morton need to be good too and the consistency is the biggest key to college football success, and I should say that it is a high level of consistency that leads to success.
2. Contain the Quarterback. I think that the win against Arizona State was good, but the quarterback wasn’t great and didn’t hit receivers deep. I think credit goes to coverage, but I also think that the quarterback wasn’t great either. I don’t know that the Texas Tech defense will be that fortunate again. This quarterback has multiple options including a pretty good tight end and I think this is a line that’s going to be more problematic for the defense. Regardless, I think Texas Tech will need to get to the quarterback, put pressure on him because he’s not going to make mistakes (he hasn’t thus far this year).
3. Create Matchup Problems. The tight ends can be the dynamic that changes so much for the offense and it seems like when they touch the ball good things happen. Much has been made about how Mason Tharp has been so good blocking and the versatility of Jalin Conyers and Johncarlos Miller is something. They are matchup problems for the opposing defense. They should be key to creating options for offensive success.
4. Run Fits. Why not say it for the 3rd week in a row.
5. Pass Rush. Cincy has 9 sacks on the season and at least 1 sack a game thus far this year along with 16 quarterback hurries, including 8, yes 8, against Miami (Ohio) and 17 passes broken up. Defensive end Eric Phillips (6-3/260) leads the way with 3 for the Bearcats and it’s going to be critical that Texas Tech keep Morton upright and not running for his life on pass plays.
6. Convert. Last week Texas Tech didn’t have to convert any 4th downs and for the year, Texas Tech is 21st in the nation in 3rd down conversions and last week was their worst effort at 47%. Cincinnati is 42nd in the nation in stopping 3rd down conversions, just 33% allowed, and for the year the highest percentage allowed was Miami (Ohio) at 38%. Converting at Texas Tech’s normal rate will be critical.

Players to Watch

RB Corey Kiner (5-9/210): Kiner is averaging 101 yards a game, 6.31 yards a carry with 2 touchdowns and just based on his size, he’s a Skattebo clone in terms of size, a bowling ball that will probably be happy to run over you, but can obviously run past you as well.

QB Brendan Sorsby (6-3/228): Another Texas kid, from Denton, Sorsby is averaging about 264 yards a game passing, a good 8.9 yards per attempt, completing 65% of his passes with 8 touchdowns and no picks thus far this year. Not necessarily a runner, so he’ll look to stay in the pocket.

WR Xzavier Henderson (6-3/200): A big receiver from Miami that leads Cincinnati with 25 receptions, 326 yards, about 13 yards a catch with 3 touchdowns. Has 2 games of 100+ yards receiving, Towson and Miami (Ohio).

DT Dontay Corleone (6-1/320): Corleone was sidelined with some health concerns earlier in the fall, and he was projected to be one of the best players at Cincinnati. He only has 9 tackles, 3 quarterback hurries, and a sack thus far this year, but he has the DNA to be a dominating player for the Bearcats.

LB Jared Bartlett (6-2/237) | LB Jack Dingle (6-4/240) | LB Jake Golday (6-4/240): The three linebackers are leading the way for Cincy, 20 tackles, 4 tackles for a loss, and 2 sacks for Bartlett. Very disruptive. Dingle has 16 tackles thus far on the season, while Golday has 16 tackles. The thing that sticks out to me is their size. They are all huge linebackers and all 3 appear to play big snaps for the Bearcats.

DB Derrick Canteen (5-11/197): Another disruptive player, a pick, 18 tackles, 1.5 tackles for a loss, 3 passes broken up, and a forced fumble.

One Big Idea

A lot of pixels have been spilled about the UNLV quarterback who decided to redshirt the rest of the year and people were blaming NIL. I think there are a few things at work here. The quarterback said that there were promises made by UNLV and their collective and that they didn’t deliver. UNLV said that there was no “formal” agreement and I think that would be accurate. That word “formal” is doing a lot of lifting in that statement from UNLV. The quarterback said that there was nothing in writing, only an oral promise of $100,000. That’s problematic for the school and the player. Then later that day the UNLV running back decided to redshirt as well and my guess is that something similar happened.

There’s the thought that NIL is ruining college sports and I don’t think that’s entirely accurate. What’s ruining college sports is that there’s a lot of ambiguity about how college sports should operate and I can say that Joey McGuire was on the radio on Wednesday and he said that Texas Tech doesn’t have these sorts of issues and the reason for that is because everything is writing. The expectations are in writing and everyone is on the same page. Payments are received when they are promised the players receive what is promised from the collective. That’s great for everyone and no one is wasting pixels on whether or not a payment is promised or received. And if the player has a deal with another business or company, that’s on them, but not on the collective and it sounds as if the collective is who is at fault here, presuming that the player is telling the truth. I think there is room to believe that the player just got a better deal and is sitting out as a result, but thus far, with UNLV saying that there was no “formal” agreement implies that there was maybe an agreement, but nothing in writing.

Opponent Intel

On offense, lots of play action pass on offense and they have a running back to make you be honest. The pass rush is real and it is something that’s going to have to be deal with, especially up the middle. Also plenty of zone read running the ball on offense.

Stats

Texas Tech does have distinct advantages passing the ball here, but they did last week as well and didn’t necessarily take advantage of it. Cincy is not great at stopping the run necessarily, but Texas Tech hasn’t been very effective (from advanced stats perspective) at running the ball. Also note that Cincinnati can be had in terms of negative drives and explosive drives as that’s been critical for Texas Tech’s successful offense. Defensively, I still don’t believe those effective rush defense numbers, it’s been okay, but not that good. Cincinnati’s offense is incredibly well-rounded and they do lots of things very well, the biggest shortfall is explosive drives. Regardless, they are incredibly solid.

Links: Sharp College Football; BCF Toys; ESPN FPI; KFord Ratings; and CFB Graphs.

News:

ESPN’s Alfonso Mancilla and Eric Gomez: How Colts’ Diego Ortiz achieved the American football dream — Really good story here and was given his break at Texas Tech and he definitely appreciate his opportunity.

Red Raider Sports’ Jarrett Ramirez: Chapman Lewis seeing an uptick in individual, team defensive success

Lubbock Avalanche-Journal’s Nathan Giese: Texas Tech football hosts Cincinnati: Scouting report, predictions for Big 12 game

Score prediction: Texas Tech 34, Cincinnati 27
Bottom line: The Bearcats might have the advantage in three of the five categories, but the margins are very slim in those victories while Tech has a decisive advantage in theirs. Call it home field advantage if you must.

Cincinnati Enquirer’s Scott Springer: Scouting report: Cincinnati Bearcats play 1st Big 12 road game at Texas Tech

Dallas Morning News’ Justin Apodaca: Texas Tech prediction: Red Raiders aim for best start under Joey McGuire vs. Cincinnati

Cincinnati Enquirer’s Scott Springer: 5 things to watch when Cincinnati Bearcats football plays at Texas Tech

Both teams feature native Texans at quarterback with Brendan Sorsby from Denton, north of Dallas-Fort Worth, and Behren Morton from Eastland, slightly southwest of DFW. CBS College Football ranked Sorsby No. 7 in their most recent rankings of college quarterbacks and he had the top quarterback rating in the Big 12 last week. Morton is fourth in the nation in passing touchdowns with 12. Both quarterbacks wear No. 2.

Both played FCS opponents in Week 1 with Texas Tech needing overtime to beat Abilene Christian 52-51 and the Bearcats beating Towson 38-20. Both Abilene Christian and Towson were 5-6 in 2023. Both teams lost to teams currently 4-0 with UC losing the 28-27 heartbreak to Pitt in the final seconds and Texas Tech falling at Washington State 37-16. Both the Panthers and Cougars are just outside of the Top 25 receiving votes.

Finally, both have 47 new players as Texas Tech has 29 freshmen and 18 transfers. The Bearcats have 21 freshmen and 26 additions via the portal.

Texas Tech Soccer: No. 25 Tech grinds out 2-1 victory at K-State

Texas Tech Volleyball: Mia Wesley has 20/20 game; Red Raiders fall in four

Place Your Bets

The line has gone all over the place, opening with Texas Tech at -7 and dropping all the way to Texas Tech to -2.5 and now settling the day before the game at -3.5. I think I like Texas Tech to cover and to win here.

At the Finish

I don’t think this will be a high-scoring affair, I’ll take Texas Tech 35-28 or something like that. Cincinnati will get theirs offensively, but I think Texas Tech has too much offense for the Bearcats.