Arizona State (3-0) vs. Texas Tech (2-1)

When: Saturday, September 21st @ 2:30 pm
Where: Jones AT&T Stadium | Lubbock, TX
TV & Streaming: FS1
Radio: TuneIn Radio
The Line: Texas Tech -3
Weather: Partly Cloudy, 88-67

Keys to the Game

• Watch Leavitt. There will have to be a quarterback spy or a there will have to be absolutely picture perfect containment within the pocket because leavitt will absolutely take off and run regardless of the play. Doesn’t have to be a designed play for Leavitt, it will be a pass play where he doesn’t see anything. So whoever is watching is going to have to be fast, so not Roberts or Rodriguez or even Ramirez.
• Low to the Ground. Skattebo is a load and he’s low to the ground and he knocks people off of the ground because most defenders are not accustomed to getting as low as he gets, and some of that is because he’s not very tall, but he also runs low to the ground.
• Open It Up. Like every other team that plays Texas Tech, I think they are going to make it a priority to stop Tahj Brooks and not let him get his. North Texas did that other than some chunk runs that helped the cause. I know that you all don’t like to hear this, but with the Behren Morton that we saw last week will make the offense really difficult to stop for most defenses. And I’d say that Brooks wasn’t really a part of that equation, so I don’t think this offense is that dependent on Brooks. I do think that Morton has to be the one that makes it all work.
• Run Fits. Yep. Run fits. Keep it figured out.
• Offensive Line Settled. I think that a lot of the offensive success is something that they borrowed from Washington State and ACU, which is to get the ball out quickly and let the receivers make plays. It reduces the dependence on the offensive line and Morton should be at a point where when he sees something, he can go attack.

Players to Watch

RB Cam Skattebo (5-11/215): Skattebo is a load and is going to be a problem. He’s averaging 124 yards a game, 5.5 yards a carry, and has 3 touchdowns thus far this season. He’s also catching 7 for 73, so he’s dangerous there too. Of all things, Skattebo had 262 rushing yards against Mississippi State, but Texas State held him to 62 yards on 26 carries.

QB Sam Leavitt (6-2/200): Leavitt has been okay thus far. Completing 60% of his passes and 8 yards an attempt with 3 touchdowns and just 1 interception. So maybe Leavitt is okay just managing the game. He also has 30 rushing attempts and 155 yards, 5 yards a rush with 3 touchdowns, so he will run on you. That’s also an issue. Somewhat skewing everything is that he only had 69 passing yards against Mississippi State, but Skattebo was obviously running roughshod.

WR Jordyn Tyson (6-1/195): Another Texas kid, Tyson is from Allen and brother to former Red Raider basketballer Jaylon Tyson. He’s got 12 catches for 176 yards for nearly 15 yards a catch and 1 touchdown.

DE Clayton Smith (6-4/240) and DE Elijah O’Neal (6-3/245): Smith has 12 tackles on the year, 3 tackles for loss, which incudes 2 sacks and he also already has 3 quarterback hurries. Smith is also from a really small town, Queen City in deep East Texas, near Atlanta. O’Neal has just 5 tackles, has 2 sacks, but also has 4 quarterback hurries thus far on the year.

LB Keyshaun Elliott (6-2/230): A linebacker that causes problems, 17 tackles on the year, with 1 interception, 2.5 tackles for a loss, which includes a sack.

One Big Idea

I did get a chance to watch the Monday morning presser and it was interesting how Zach Kittley was asked about the 3-tight end formation that scored 3 touchdowns on Saturday. He said that they stole the play from Memphis from last year who did beat North Texas 45-42. I was thinking who might Kittley steal something from this week, which is weird because Arizona State only won 3 games last year and the team that they could not stop was Arizona, who scored 59 points and USC, who scored 42. Interestingly, Arizona hired Dino Babers as the new offensive coordinator and it’s more pro-style with a hesitation hand-offs to allow the blockers to pull and get where they need to go. Texas Tech certainly has the personnel to do that with the 3 tight ends, they can do some interesting things.

Opponent Intel

Leavitt and Skattebo are fantastic and Tyson is a load offensively. You never get a ton of looks of the defense, but they’ve got some defensive ends that can run. Better get those tackles ready because I think they’re coming to disrupt Morton as much as possible.

Stats

Arizona State is great at stopping the run, which relates this game hinging on Morton more than Brooks. And ASU is terrible stopping the pass, so take that with a grain of salt. The Sun Devils are also prone to give up big plays, and Texas Tech is good at reducing negative drives and has a high play efficiency. Defensively, some of these figures don’t make any sense for Texas Tech because I think we can all agree, especially after the ACU game, that this defense is not that good and these numbers are skewed heavily by the UNT game. With that being said, I’m surprised that Arizona State isn’t better running the ball, and we know that Leavitt isn’t a great passer, but that still seems low.

Links: Sharp College Football; BCF Toys; ESPN FPI; KFord Ratings; and CFB Graphs.

News:

Dave Campbell’s Texas Football’s Carter Yates: Jalin Conyers on the Long Road Home to Lubbock

The Associated Press: Arizona State visits Texas Tech for 1st Big 12 game as Sun Devils seek 4-0 start

Dallas Morning News’ Justin Apodaca: Texas Tech prediction: Red Raiders to build momentum against Arizona State?

Lubbock Avalanche-Journal’s Don Williams: Jalin Conyers finds his happy place with Texas Tech football

“I remember sitting in coach Wells’ office and he offered Jalin a scholarship,” Kimberly Conyers, Jalin’s mother, said this week, “and of course he’s young and energetic and excited.

“And coach Wells told him, ‘But I don’t want you to make a decision right now because you’re about to embark on a journey that is going to be very exciting, and I don’t want you to commit and then regret it or change your mind, because you’re about to’ — his words, I think, were ‘blow up; you’re about to blow up’ — and he was right. He got numerous offers after that and of course, ended up pursuing something different.”

This past January, Jalin Conyers finally joined the Red Raiders, playing tight end for his third college team in five years. Wells’ prediction proved spot on. Ohio State and Georgia offered scholarships to Conyers, then listed at 6-foot-4 and 220 pounds. So did LSU and Michigan, Oregon and Penn State, Texas and Texas A&M.

Texas Tech: Four Downs with Texas Tech freshman class [You should read this.]

Texas Tech: Tech downs Utah, 2-0

Texas Tech: McDonald posts season-best in kills against FIU

Place Your Bets

I wasn’t surprised that Texas Tech was initially favored, and that line has come down half a point, from a +3.5 opening line to +3. The public money is split 50/50, so Vegas has the line about as right as it gets and I also think that this will be a close game, I’ll game Arizona State to cover, but Texas Tech to win. Nail biter.

At the Finish

I think Texas Tech wins a close one and think it’s a similar score to the Arizona State and Texas State game, something like 35-33, Texas Tech with the win.