North Texas (2-0) vs. Texas Tech (1-1)

When: Saturday, September 14th @ 11:00 am
Where: Jones AT&T Stadium | Lubbock, TX
TV & Streaming: FS1
Radio: TuneIn Radio
The Line: Texas Tech -10
Weather: Partly Cloudy, 97-69

Keys to the Game

1. Be marginally better. I know, totally reaching for the stars here, but you can look at the graphs and see where Texas Tech is good and it’s sort of all over the place. Not great at defending the pass. Not great at forcing negative drives, not great at limiting explosive drives, so there isn’t any one place that doesn’t need improvement. And that’s picking on the defense, but the offense isn’t good running the ball, and the offense still isn’t explosive, nor is it efficient. Get marginally better across the board.
2. There is no excuse that the offense is so dependent on a player, like Tahj Brooks, that it doesn’t work without him. That’s just not acceptable on any level, and that’s not a shot at Brooks by the way. Quarterback, I sort of understand, but not running back.
3. The defense really should sell out to stop the pass. UNT is terrific at throwing the ball around and they have two very effective receivers. Sell out to stop the pass, which means getting more than a hurry or two on the quarterback or a sack. The defensive ends have to get some pressure to speed everything up. Those guys that were supposed to be good at getting to the quarterback have to do that.
4. Joey McGuire likes to be who he is and not deviate from going for it on 4th down and I understand not wanting to show any sort of weakness, but with the turnovers and everything else, chilling out on going for it on 4th down. I don’t think this is gong to come to fruition, McGuire likes to be who he is and I can appreciate that, but not putting the defense in a bad spot could help that defense immensely.
5. Get your damn run fits situated. For realz.

Players to Watch

WR Damon Ward, Jr. (5-11/204): Ward was really productive in 2023, 39 catches for 487 yards, 12.5 yards a catch and 5 touchdowns. This year, Ward has 13 receptions for 246 yards, good for nearly 19 yards a catch plus 2 touchdowns. Partner in receiving DT Sheffield is going to be one to watch as well.

RB Ikaika Ragsdale (5-11/215) & RB Damashja Harris (6-2/224): Ragsdale ran for 755 yards and 5.32 yards a carry in 2022 with 7 touchdowns, but wrecked his knee and was out all of 2023. They’ve really split the carries thus far this year and Ragsdale leads with 22, but is averaging 2.64 yards a carry. Meanwhile, Damashja Harris has 16 carries and 171 yards, that’s 10.69 yards a carry.

RG Landon Peterson (6-6/295), C Jett Duncan (6-1/295), RT Larry Moore, III (6-6/270): Two of those names should sound familiar, both Peterson and Moore were both former Red Raider footballers and they’ll make up the right side of the line for UNT. Duncan is the long-time center that gives that line stability.

CB Ridge Texada (5-8/179): Texada is tiny, but very good. 34 tackles, 1 pick, but he had 7 passes broken up last year and already has an interception this year along with 3 pass break-ups.

LB Jordan Brown (6-1/240): Brown was the leading tackler for the Eagles last year with 83 tackles, 5 tackles for a loss, 3.5 of those were sacks, and 5 quarterback hurries. Brown has 15 tackles thus far this year along with 2 quarterback hurries.

Chandler Morris (6-0/191): Morris gets the start for the Mean Green and for his career, he’s completed 66% of his passes for 2,400 yards, 16 touchdowns and 5 picks. All of his picks came last year at TCU where he had the most snaps. Morris probably tends to hold onto the ball a bit long, 11 sacks in just 204 attempts last year. This year, Morris has completed 68% of his passes and is averaging about 368 yards a game with 7 touchdowns and 3 picks in 2 games, all 3 picks were last week against SFA.

One Big Idea

North Texas is an incredibly important game. Seems like an understatement at this point.

This is going to sound a bit weird, but I remember last year was supposed to be Baylor’s big year. They had 7 or so games at home and the expectation was that they would bowl eligible very easily and their program would be on their way. That didn’t happen. In fact, that’s not what happened at all. Aranda would end up having to take control of the defense, fire an offensive coordinator and hire a new one, dip into the portal to get a good quarterback and shuttle off players that weren’t part of the solution. I don’t know if the 2024 version of Texas Tech is the 2023 version of Baylor, but it’s something to consider.

Much has been made about how Texas Tech is moving towards a more professional model. Finding players that meet certain physical traits and finding of players would be left to the personnel department and coaching of players would be left to the coaches. I’m fine with this model and think that this is the way that a modern college program should be set up. With that being said, I asked the question in last week’s preview who the difference maker is on defense and with all of these players with all of these athletic traits, you wonder when those raw players make a difference. And I for certain thought that with all of these young players receiving time when they were young would help the transition, but now that may not be true. And I wonder if this process is the best process. Before the Washington State game, Chris Level said that he wouldn’t be surprised if Texas Tech dipped into the offensive line portal when the offseason hit and in year 4, Texas Tech should be in a position where the offensive linemen recruited in year one and two would be stepping up and that’s not happening thus far. I don’t know what to think when he’s already being old this.

I think this is happening on the defensive line, but the defensive line still required an injection of two senior transfers to bridge the gap. At some point, the fruits of the labor must, well, come to fruition and if it doesn’t, then the fear is that this great experiment may not be what we think it is. Or maybe I need to be more patient and I’m thinking about all of this because the product isn’t where I thought it should be.

Opponent Intel

North Texas returns with some familiar faces with Eric Morris as the head coach, having been at Incarnate Word previously and Washington State as the offensive coordinator last year. Morris was a program builder at Incarnate Word, leaving with 24 wins, which, believe it or not, is the leader in the clubhouse for that program.

Former Red Raider footballer Jordan Davis is the offensive coordinator, but my guess is that Morris is doing a lot of the heavy lifting. Davis is apparently in the booth and it would make sense that Morris is calling plays with assistance from Davis upstairs. Matt Caponi is the defensive coordinator, who has ties to Matt Campbell from Iowa State, having coached at Mount Union and with the Cyclones.

Drew Svoboda is the special teams coach and he’s had experience at Alabama in 2021 and 2022 before joining Morris at North Texas.

Stats

Look at UNT’s defense. The closer it is to the center the worse a team is. Texas Tech should score a lot of points here.

Links: Sharp College Football; BCF Toys; ESPN FPI; KFord Ratings; and CFB Graphs.

News:

Denton Record Chronicle’s Brett Vito: What We Learned: Win over SFA puts UNT in terrific position heading into game at Texas Tech

Damon Ward Jr. enjoyed a monster game in UNT’s season-opening win over South Alabama, catching 12 passes for 230 yards and two touchdowns.

It seemed like a safe bet that SFA would try to take him out of the game last week. The Lumberjacks did just that, holding Ward to one reception for 16 yards.

The Mean Green kept on rolling while turning to its other weapons. DT Sheffield caught three touchdown passes and finished with 74 yards on six receptions.

Tight end Oscar Hammond added four catches for 69 yards and a touchdown.

Lubbock Avalanche-Journal’s Nathan Giese: For UNT coach Eric Morris, facing alma mater Texas Tech football can’t be centered on him

Familial connections will be apparent on Saturday. Aside from Morris, the Mean Green — much like Abilene Christian two weeks ago — feature former Red Raiders and Lubbock-area natives as well. Coronado alum Blair Conwright transferred to UNT from TCU prior to the 2023 season. Starting offensive linemen Landon Peterson and Larry Moore III are former Red Raiders, Peterson having spent five years at Tech with nine starts and 35 games played to his credit.

Denton Record Chronicle’s Brett Vito: Trip to Texas Tech will bring back memories for UNT coach, Red Raiders great Eric Morris

Dallas Morning News’ Justin Apodaca: Texas Tech prediction: Red Raiders to right ship against North Texas?

Action Sports’ Mike Calbrese: College Football Group of 5 Parlay: Week 3 Picks for North Texas vs Texas Tech, FIU vs FAU, More

CBS Sports’ Shehan Jeyarajah: Pac-12 poaches Mountain West schools to join Oregon State, Washington State as conference rebuilds

Lubbock Avalanche-Journal’s Don Williams: Success started early for Texas Tech football’s Jacob Rodriguez as a youth wrestling star

Red Raider Sports’ Jarrett Ramirez: Our Keys To The Game as Texas Tech looks to rebound v. North Texas

Game 3 combo ⚫️🔴⚪️#WreckEm | @adidasFballUS pic.twitter.com/fKpu603CrA

— Texas Tech Football (@TexasTechFB) September 12, 2024

Place Your Bets

Another week where more than half of the public money is on the opponent, 79% (it is now at 72% and -10 as I write this Friday morning). That’s not a good sign that so many people don’t want to bet for Texas Tech, but that may also be a recency situation where we are jaded by the most recent results, but why wouldn’t you be? It’s foolish, but I think that Texas Tech is better than what they’ve shown. I shouldn’t have such confidence, but I do. Texas Tech breaks out of their slump and wins by 10. Also, I’m 0-2 for the year.

At the Finish

I think we’re somewhat overlooking that UNT somewhat struggled against SFA. Look, I know that Texas Tech struggled mightily against ACU and showed very little last week, but if Texas Tech can get some turnovers and some pressure and just get marginally better across the board, then I think winning by 10+ is feasible. I’m a sucker for cheering for and picking my team, so feel free to ignore me. I still believe they’ve got the goods, at least for this game.