Texas Tech (1-0) vs. Washington State (1-0)

When: Saturday, September 7th @ 9:00 pm
Where: Martin Stadium | Pullman, WA
TV & Streaming: FOX
Radio: TuneIn Radio
The Line: Washington State -2.5
Weather: Sunny, 86-56

Keys to the Game

1. It’s difficult not to be obvious here regarding what needs to improve. Specifically, I thought I saw defensive linemen out of place, which hasn’t really been discussed all that much, linebackers missing tackles, and of course the secondary being completely bewildered on what Abilene Christian was doing. The personnel won’t change, so improvement will have to happen, otherwise it will be a long season. And Washington State is going to absolutely test the defense from the start. Be sound and do your job.
2. Not a key to the game, but who is the difference maker on defense? Right now, who is is going to make a play?
3. The offensive line was mid at best for me. Good at times, but not consistent enough for me at all. Behren Morton is mobile enough to get out of situations, but if Tahj Brooks can’t go, then the pass protection will have be on-point and give him time to make reads. I don’t think the WSU defense is so good that there won’t be windows, but Morton will need time.
4. Taking a bit from Washington State’s team last year, where they probably weren’t the offense they wanted to be, but they also had Cam Ward at the helm who was very good. The Cougars were 15th in effective passing and 121st in effective rushing, so they might be one-dimensional to an extent. The secondary is going to get tested here and it will probably be all-hands on deck. I’d want to keep everything in front of you and given the rush attack, the Cougars might not be that great and with a new starting quarterback, might be prone to mistakes. That didn’t happen at all last week against Portland State. I also wonder if we saw the absolute worst the Texas Tech defense will play this year and there’s no where to go but up. The athletes are there, they just have to perform.
5. Defensively, Washington State was lights out against the pass, 18th in effective pass and as stated above, I’m not sure how much of that will translate to 2024, but the bones are there to be good. And they were top half in terms of stopping the run, 59th in effective rush.
6. However, Washington State gave up 4.5 yards a carry against Portland State and you’d think that there would be opportunities there. I am confident in the backup running backs being able to carry the load, but the offensive line with have to create lanes. It seems a lot depends on the offensive line in this game for me.

Players to Watch

OL Fa’Alili Fa’amoe (6-5/314): Fa’amoe started at right guard last year, all 12 games, and at his size he’s big, but probably pretty mobile. Fa’Amoe was also named to the Polynesian player of the year watch list and the Lombardi award watch list.

QB John Mateer (6-1/219): Mateer was named the starting quarterback and he’s got some heft (that’s a good thing) and of all things he’s from Little Elm, in the DFW area, where he was a 4-year starter. Mateer didn’t get a ton of time last year, but he’s QB1 for the Cougars. Mateer threw for 352 yards on just 17 attempts and 11 completions. He also had 2 runs for 55 yards and a touchdowns, so he’ll pull the ball down and run.

DE Nusi Malani (6-4/265) and DE Syrus Webster (6-4/254): Malani had 24 tackles last year with a sack and a half, but watch out for Webster, a transfer from Utah Tech, who had 79 tackles, 12.5 tackles for a loss, 7 sacks and 4 forced fumbles.

DE Raam Stevenson (6-4/242): A quick edge rusher that’s majoring in electrical engineer and he’s also from Arlington, Texas. That’s Raam Stevenson. Just a junior and limited last year, I’m highlighting Stevenson because he had 3 quarterback hurries last week and I thought that there were some struggles with quickness off the edge a bit for the offensive line. Watch out for Raam.

WR Kyle Williams (6-1/186): Williams was really good for the Cougars last year, 61 catches (same number as Josh Kelly) and had 842 yards along with 6 touchdowns so he should be the focus of the offense, and for good reason. This year, he had 4 receiptions for 141 yards and 2 touchdowns. That’s 35 yards a catch. I’m guessing he got behind the defense pretty easily against Portland State.

One Big Idea

How do you turn around a team after one week? How does a team perform so badly on one side of the ball that everything you know is turned upside down? After the game, McGuire said that we’re going to friggin dig in and get better. He emphasized how he wants the team to own exactly what happened against ACU and that they have to learn from it and get better. McGuire is going to find out a lot about his team and his players on Saturday. The thing is that DeRuyter is a good coach. We know this. We know that he’s done a good job of coaching this team. We’ve seen the results and we know that he’s done a good job of making sure players are in the right spots and he’s good at figuring out the best talent on the field. I don’t think their eyes were lying to them for the entire preseason.

Opponent Intel

Big huge plays with receivers making spectacular grabs. McGuire wasn’t lying about how quickly the quarterback gets the ball out and if he sees 1-on-1 coverage he’s slinging it out there. Mateer also throws really well in zone coverage so whatever happened on Saturday night with Texas Tech will need to be corrected. There’s also a ton of terrible tackling by Portland State, but we saw a ton of that on Saturday as well. I’m not throwing any stones.

Stats

The first graphic indicates that these teams, are relatively even in terms of advanced rankings. When we get to the 2nd and 3rd graphics, we see some fun extremes with early stats. With the Texas Tech offense I’d probably say to take these with a grain of salt so early, but it does appear that Texas Tech has an advantage passing the ball, no advantage running the ball and is more efficient than the Wazzu defense. For Texas Tech’s defense, the early returns are terrible and Washington State has just about every advantage imaginable. Understandable given the results on Saturday.

Links: Sharp College Football; BCF Toys; ESPN FPI; KFord Ratings; and CFB Graphs.

News:

Lubbock Avalanche-Journal’s Nathan Giese: As Texas Tech football works out defensive kinks, special teams become more important

College Football News: Texas Tech at Washington State, College Football Expert Picks, Predictions: Week 2

⚪️⚪️⚪️ for Pullman pic.twitter.com/sKbHsrn0gO

— Texas Tech Football (@TexasTechFB) September 5, 2024

Dallas Morning News’ Justin Apodaca: Texas Tech prediction: Can Red Raiders beat Washington State in high-scoring affair?

Seattle Times’ Greg Woods: WSU rewind: In win over Portland State, Cougs’ defense struggles, O-line thrives

But Dickert is a defensive guy, and his defense gave up 30 points to an FCS school picked to finish 10th in its conference this season. Vikings starting quarterback Dante Chachere totaled three touchdowns. Backup William Haskell added one. Portland State logged 215 rushing yards, including runs of 54 yards and 27 yards, helping the visitors churn out an average of 4.5 yards per rush.

If those are the only two big plays the Cougs give up next week when Texas Tech comes to town, they might like their chances. But WSU permitted those numbers to Portland State, which hadn’t scored that many points against an FBS foe since a 2021 loss to Hawaii. It might get lost in the shuffle of Washington State’s offense’s 70-point outing, but its defense showed it’s still a work in progress.

First, a few numbers: The Cougs missed 17 tackles in Saturday’s game, the most they’ve missed against an FCS opponent since 2019, when they also whiffed on 17 against Northern Colorado, according to Pro Football Focus. Four Cougars missed two tackles apiece, including starters in linebacker Buddah Al-Uqdah and safety Jackson Lataimua. Thirteen different Cougs missed tackles, though that number is a bit skewed by the sheer number of players WSU inserted — 34.

“We gotta get better from this tape. We do,” Dickert said. “There’s some communication issues, there’s tackling issues.”

The troubling part for WSU might be this: The Vikings didn’t just add a couple touchdowns in the fourth quarter when the Cougs had pulled all their starters. Portland State scored on its first series of the game, a 65-yard drive that ended with a 5-yard touchdown rush from Chachere.
The Spokesman Review’s Greg Woods: WSU and Texas Tech isn’t just a battle of versatile offenses. It’s a meeting of best friends

Place Your Bets

When Vegas first opened the line, they had Texas Tech favored by 1.5 points, which is crazy considering how the past weekend played out. Vegas thought that Texas Tech should be favored despite the ACU result and considering how poorly they’ve played on the road previously. I think that should tell you something. The money has now swung the game the other way and Washington State is now favored by that 1.5 points. Bill Connelly projects that Washington State wins this game by 4 points, so the odds here say that Washington State will win, but might not cover. Although risky and against most logic, I’ll take Texas Tech and the points. This is one of those situations where 89% of the public bets are with Washington State so why not.

At the Finish

Texas Tech will likely correct a lot of the mistakes and I think that the defense won’t be as bad as it was last week. There’s no where to go but up. I think this game is going to be a lot closer than most people think and it is completely irrational to think that Texas Tech has a chance of winning, but that’s what makes college football an insane game, herding a team of teenagers and 20-year olds to accomplish a goal. Texas Tech wins by 1 on the road, 35-34. I’m insane.