Preview & Game Day Thread: NC State vs. Texas Tech

Game Info

Good Guys: Texas Tech Red Raiders (23-10)
Bad Guys: NC State Wolfpack (22-14)
When to Watch: Thursday, March 21st @ 8:40 pm
Where to Watch: PPG Paints Arena | Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
How to Watch: CBS | March Madness Live
How to Listen: 97.3 FM | Affiliates | Varsity Network
The Line: Texas Tech -5

Advanced Stats

TEXAS TECH STAT NC STATE
25
KenPom
57
23
KP AdjO
47
48
KP AdjD
91
29
T-Rank
61
23
T-Rank O
49
48
T-Rank D
100
29
Haslemetric
49

Lineups

TEXAS TECH
THE STARTERS Pts / Reb
POINT GUARD Joe Toussaint (6-0/195) 12.1 / 4.3*
SHOOTING GUARD Pop Isaacs (6-2/180) 15.9 / 3.5*
SMALL FORWARD Kerwin Walton (6-5/210) 8.4 / 2.3
POWER FORWARD Darrion Williams (6-8/225) 11.4 / 7.5
CENTER Warren Washington (7-0/235) 9.9 / 7.4
THE BENCH Pts / Reb
SIXTH MAN Chance McMillian (6-3/185) 10.9 / 4.0
SEVENTH MAN Robert Jennings (6-7/230) 4.4 / 3.4
EIGHTH MAN Eemeli Yalaho (6-8/240) 2.5 / 1.5
NINTH MAN Lamar Washington (6-4/200) 2.1 / 1.5
TENTH MAN D’Maurian Williams (6-3/195) 0.3 / 0.4
ELEVENTH MAN KyeRon Lindsay (6-8/215) 2.7 / 1.3
TWELFTH MAN Jack Francis (6-3/185) 0.4 / 1.0
THIRTEENTH MAN Devan Cambridge (6-6/210) Out for Year
NC STATE
THE STARTERS Pts / Reb
POINT GUARD DJ Horne (6-1/175) 16.9 / 2.1*
SHOOTING GUARD Michael O’Connell (6-2/195) 5.7 / 3.0*
SMALL FORWARD Casey Morsell (6-3/200) 11.5 / 2.8
POWER FORWARD Mohamed Diarra (6-10/215) 6.0 / 7.4
CENTER DJ Burns Jr. (6-9/275) 12.4 / 4.0
THE BENCH Pts / Reb
SIXTH MAN Jayden Taylor (6-4/195) 11.9 / 3.8
SEVENTH MAN Ben Middlebrooks (6-10/240) 5.5 / 4.1
EIGHTH MAN Breon Pass (6-0/175) 1.3 / 0.5
NINTH MAN Ernest Ross (6-9/200) 0.3 / 0.5
TENTH MAN – (-/-) – / –

* Assists.

Starting 5

1. Stats. NC State is a top 50 offense, but they do it strangely I think. They do it based off of two things really, they are 61st in the nation in block percentage and 9th in turnover percentage. So essentially they are a team that doesn’t turn the ball over and they don’t get their shots blocked. In other stats, the Wolfpack are 142nd in 3-point percentage and 189th in 2-point percentage. That’s not great. NC State doesn’t grab a ton of offensive boards, 183rd in the nation and don’t really get to the line, 192nd. On the defensive end, they are a top 100 defensive team, bub there’s really not a stat that stands out. they are 116th in forcing opponent turnovers, 193rd in allowing opponent offensive boards, and 155th in opponent free throw rate. Weird, right. they allow teams to shoot really well from deep, 250th, and are okay guarding inside the 3-point line, 140th.

2. Scouting. A quick note, NC State went on an absolute heater to get into the tournament, beating Louisville, Syracuse, Duke, Virginia, and North Carolina. But prior to that they dropped 4 straight to Florida State, North Carolina, Duke, and Pittsburgh. So they can run pretty hot and cold. Horne is the best outside shooter and he shoots a ton, 224 3-point attempts, making 42% of those shots, is a low turnover guy, but that’s about it. He’s also pretty good at making far 2-point shots (non-paint) at 44%. Burns is the post player and yes, he operates in the middle, has a high usage rate, has a high assist rate for his size (actually, check that, he has the best assist rate on the team) and that’s what he does. Morsell shoots a lot of 3’s, but only makes 26%. Taylor is a bit better at 36%, but that’s not great by NCAA standards. Those are your main shooters. Middlebrooks and Diarra will be the guys that go and grab offensive boards and are the main rebounders.

3. How They Match Up. Texas Tech should be the better team and are better by a lot of metrics, but the problem is that NC State is absolutely capable of upsetting teams. Texas Tech should have Warren Washington and Darrion Williams playing, which means that they will be full strength in what seems like a month of being without Washington. Texas Tech should have an advantage offensively. Despite everything, Texas Tech is a good shooting team, 69th (nice) in eFG% and 33rd in 3-point shooting. when NC State went on their run, they hardly turned the ball over at all and then they shot really well at 2-point shots. It would be great to try to get them into a 3-point shooting contest, but they seem pretty controlled and like to get the ball to Burns and let him cook. I think that McCasland has shown based on his NIT run last year that he’s capable of putting together a game plan on short notice and with a week, who knows.

4. lagniappe | something given as a bonus or extra gift.

5. Official Site. The official site has their preview right here:

Texas Tech is set to compete in the program’s 20th NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament after earning an at-large bid as the South Region No. 6 seed where it will play No. 11 North Carolina State at 9:40 p.m. (ET) on Thursday at PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. The NCAA First Round game will be televised on CBS and follows No. 3 Kentucky and No. 14 Oakland which will set up the NCAA Second Round matchup on Saturday at the site.

The Red Raiders are 23-10 overall after finishing tied for third with an 11-7 record in Big 12 play and enter the postseason ranked No. 22 in the Associated Press Top 25 and USA TODAY Coaches Poll. As a program, Tech has an 11-5 record in the NCAA Tournament since 2016, including reaching the 2018 Elite 8, 2019 National Championship Final and 2022 Sweet 16. The program is 19-20 all-time in the NCAA Tournament and has appeared in six of the last eight tournaments.

NC State (22-14, 9-11 ACC) ran off five straight victories to win the 2024 ACC Tournament with a championship victory over North Carolina on Saturday after knocking off Virginia, Duke, Syracuse, and Louisville. The Wolfpack entered the tournament on a four-game losing streak before securing the automatic bid to punch their ticket to Pittsburgh and the program’s 29th NCAA Tournament appearance. The Red Raiders did not play an ACC opponent this season.

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