The Lede

GAME THINGS
	Texas Tech Red Raiders (3-5, 2-3)
	TCU Horned Frogs (3-5, 2-3)
	November 2nd @ 6:00 p.m.
	Jones AT&T Stadium | Lubbock, Texas
	Texas Tech -3
	FS1 | FOX Sports Live
	63, Sunny

The Horned Frogs

Frogs O War’s Coach Miles Perry self-scouted the Horned Frogs during the off-week and there’s a lot of good detail there, with a summary here:

The TCU offense needs to focus on 2 things moving forward. First, the Frogs have to stop turning the ball over. One of the easiest ways to lose a game is to lose the turnover battle. The numbers back that up. As the season continues, Josh Hoover has to avoid throwing interceptions, especially in plus territory. Second, the red zone offense has to improve. Many of you will blame Kendal Briles for this, and he’s definitely part of the problem. But at the end of the day, TCU isn’t executing when it has the opportunity to score. The run game has to be more physical (I’d love to see an extra OL and 2 tight ends on the field), and the quarterbacks have to take care of the ball. I believe both of these things can be improved moving forward.

TCU’s issues on defense, however, I am not sure about. This defense is allowing fewer yards and fewer red zone touchdowns than it did last year, but the explosive plays allowed and the lack of takeaways are a major problem. Simply put, I don’t think TCU has the athletes to accomplish what Gillespie is trying to do schematically. That has been apparent by TCU’s inability to cover a running back out of the backfield all year. Colorado and Kansas State both exploited it over and over again. Personally, I don’t think the 3-3-5 is the best fit for TCU. To play an odd front your 3 defensive linemen have to dominate the line of scrimmage, and TCU’s guys up front can’t do that. I don’t think that issue can be resolved in recruiting either. The guys who are true game-changers on the defensive line aren’t coming to TCU to play football. Sorry. This program had tons of success in the 4-2-5 system for years, and I firmly believe that the TCU Horned Frogs need 4 defensive linemen on the field to be successful. However, this change cannot be made until after the season is over.

Star-Telgram’s Steven Johnson has a mailbag where he answers questions and is asked to diagnose the two lines:

The offensive line has probably been the most disappointing unit so far. Remember even though TCU lost stars like Steve Avila and Alan Ali, the Horned Frogs still returned three of its top six linemen in terms of snaps. But as the season has progressed the deficiencies of the unit have become clear. The o-line doesn’t generate a consistent enough push in the run game which is why TCU struggles so much in third-and-short and fourth-and-short.

It’s also why the Horned Frogs haven’t been able to rely on the run game as much as last year. Emani Bailey will pop off a 25-yard gain and then struggle to gain 10 on the next five or six carries combined. As far as pass protection, the unit I think is more consistent depending on the quality of the defensive line it’s facing, but there’s still been a noticeable step back.

Before last week’s debacle I would say TCU’s defensive line has just been okay. Damonic Williams hasn’t taken the leap many expected and Caleb Fox is serviceable, but not spectacular. I’m still high on Paul Oyewale’s upside, but he hasn’t had a sack in over a month. Don’t be surprised to see some of those young 2023 signees to get more run to close the season.

Also from Steven Johnson on the TCU not quitting on the season after the loss to Kansas State:

So how can TCU ensure that the team gets off to a much better start next Thursday in Lubbock? One way is the coaching staff using the bye week to push the team instead of taking a more lax approach.

“The coaches aren’t really treating it like it’s a bye week,” Obiazor said. “We’re still trying to attack at practices and get better. We had a thud scrimmage period (on Sunday) which I felt was good for the people that needed it.”

Typically Sundays are for walkthroughs and film review to correct any mistakes from the previous day, but clearly the coaching believed the team needed a physical practice to shake back mentally and emotionally.

From frustration to sadness, there was a plethora of emotions that went through the locker room in the immediate aftermath of Saturday’s blowout.

And lastly, Johnson asks big questions after the blowout loss to K-State and this sort of feels like Texas Tech in a way:

It’s one thing to take a step back after the magical 2022 season, but a step back is supposed to be 8-4 or a competitive 7-5. At this point, there’s a realistic chance TCU might not win another game and that shouldn’t be what this program is facing just months after an appearance in the national championship game.

TCU signed one of its best recruiting classes in program history and landed another strong transfer class the staff. According to the 247Sports team talent rankings, TCU has more blue chip recruits on its roster this year than last season’s championship finalist team.

It’s not just recruiting rankings, the coaching staff believed in the talent too. We heard all preseason how the Horned Frogs were deeper at receiver, cornerback and linebacker. But you can’t make up quality with just quantity.

Finding a Quentin Johnston, Steve Avila or Max Duggan in the transfer portal is near impossible unless you’re a big boy program and right now TCU seems further from that tier than it did on that rainy January night in Los Angeles.

The Red Raiders

Back: Behren Morton, Jacob Rodriguez.
Game-Time: Miquel Dingle?
Out: Cole Spencer.

Lubbock Avalanche-Joural’s Don Williams writes that it is desperate times starting this week for Texas Tech football:

Big 12 television partners, before the season, slotted Texas Tech-TCU for a Thursday night. There’s no reason for the game to be spotlighted otherwise, except perhaps for this: It might well be a bowl-elimination game for both with whatever extra sizzle that produces.

As probable losses go, TCU seemingly has two left with a home game against Texas and a road trip to Oklahoma, and it’s hard to picture Texas Tech winning its regular-season finale at Texas.

Also ominous for the Red Raiders: Eight Big 12 teams are at least 5-3, their overall record at least two games or better than Tech’s, and TCU can be, too, if it wins Thursday’s 6 p.m. game at Jones AT&T Stadium. If the Red Raiders can somehow get to 6-6 to become bowl-eligible, they might need to fill some other conference’s allotment of bowl slots.

Dallas Morning News’ Justin Apodaca has 5 things to know about this game with one of those things being the two quality running backs:

Two of the best running backs in the Big 12 will face off in Tech’s Tahj Brooks and TCU’s Emani Bailey.

Brooks, the power-five’s leading rusher and leader in missed tackles forced, has been the focal point of the Tech offense this season. An extremely physical and patient runner, Brooks has been a challenge for opponents all season.

On the other hand, Bailey has been an extremely effective rusher, averaging just under six yards per carry in 2023. Bailey has gotten the bulk of the carries while Trey Sanders has cleaned up for four touchdowns this season.

Also from Apodaca, but at Red Raider Sports, some detail into some position switches for CJ Baskerville and Tyler Owens:

DeRuyter explained his thought process on swapping STAR CJ Baskerville and boundary safety Tyler Owens eight games into the 2023 season, a somewhat surprising and intriguing move in the secondary.

“We’re going to take a look at moving CJ to boundary safety, where he had played a little bit more at his previous school. We’re trying to get our best guys in the best position to make plays,” DeRuyter said. “We think that moving Tyler closer to the line of scrimmage to take advantage of his speed off an edge and his ability to play on a slot receiver. We just think matchup wise and may give us some advantages.”

Stats

Overall, these teams appear to be pretty evenly matched. The major rankings have them basically the same with TCU having slightly better numbers. the Texas Tech offense has advantages in explosive drives, which should theoretically better with Morton at quarterback, and a team that can run the ball decently against a defense that’s not great at stopping the run. I think that bodes well for the offense. The defense is a different matter, TCU doesn’t have many negative drives, but from a rush and pass perspective, these are evenly matched teams. Texas Tech has significant advantages at stopping efficient drives. This would be a good game for some turnovers.

Advanced Stats:

Texas Tech Offense vs. TCU Defense:

Texas Tech Defense vs. TCU Offense:

Odds and Ends

Bob Knight died at his home in Bloomington last night at the age of 83. I started blogging back when Knight was first hired so I tend to associate his time at Texas Tech with me starting to blog. Knight spent 7 years at Army, 30 years at Indiana where he was a legend, and the final 8 years at Texas Tech. I remember his last National Championship team, Keith Smart, Dean Calloway, and Calbert Cheaney as the key components and I also remember the hard-nosed teams at Texas Tech, Andre Emmett was the early star that probably learned how to play the game from Knight. If you are young and don’t know much about Knight, I highly recommend A Season on the Brink by John Feinstein, which followed Indiana’s 1985-86 season. And if you’d like to take a step back, College Basketball Reference is a great site. Rest in peace.

Lubbock Avalanche Journal’s Don williams was at the basketball tipoff luncheon where Athletic Director Kirby Hocutt confirmed that adidas would become the athletic apparel provide for Texas Tech beginning July 1, 2024. Hocutt credited Patrick Mahomes with helping push this across the finish line:

“We would not be where we are with adidas today, embarking on a new 10-year relationship, without Patrick Mahomes,” Hocutt told the crowd at United Supermarkets Arena. “Patrick for the last couple of years has shared with me, ‘I want the Red Raiders in the same brand that I wear. I want you with the same apparel partner that I have.’

“And so this summer, I was at a foundation event of Patrick’s, and those talks really accelerated over the summer, and he has been behind this every step along the way. This was so important to him.”

The brutalist (not even sure if that’s a word) takedown of Lincoln Riley and USC that I’ve ever seen.

Film session w/ Coach 30 – #USC vs. #Utah pic.twitter.com/er08nxTbO7

— Brenden Clinton (@MrGo30) October 24, 2023

We all have friends, the big guy that refuses to wear pants all year other than to go to church. Your friend is beefy, yet athletic and nimble, and despite falling temps, they always say, “We run pretty hot, so this doesn’t feel cold to us.” Advantage? Big guy in shorts, we salute the heck out of you.

Game Prediction

I’ve been burned so many times, really too many to count. I don’t like Texas Tech favored, but I do like the Red Raiders in this game. Things are pretty equal between these two teams and I think I like Texas Tech’s offense a bit more with Morton at the helm and hope he stays healthy. I honestly think that Texas Tech has a chance in any game when he’s playing AND there’s no turnovers. As you know, 5 turnovers is a killer. I am ready to be hurt again on a Thursday night.