The Lede
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Texas Tech Red Raiders (1-2, 0-0) |
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West Virginia Mountaineers (2-1, 0-0) |
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September 23rd @ 2:30 p.m. |
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Milar Puskar Stadium | Morgantown, West Virginia |
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Texas Tech -6 |
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ESPN+ | ESPN+ |
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75, Partly Cloudy |
The Mountaineers
The biggest talk coming out of West Virginia is that redshirt freshman quarterback Nicco Marchiol may get the start over an injured Garrett Greene. What to expect?
“He has got really high-end ability. He can run the football. He showed good speed versus Duquesne but he’s more of a in between the tackles type of runner, he’s real physical. You could see that in high school. He was a tough tackle,” said Brown. “He’s really good with balls in between the hashes, he’s got good velocity on it. Throws the deep ball well. He didn’t throw it down the field as well as he can in the game. Some of that is just timing issues that when he practices, he’ll be better. Our expectation is that if he plays that we’ll be really good on offense.”
A large part of WVU’s success was the ability to run the ball behind a strong offensive line:
Those front five — left to right, Wyatt Milum, Tomas Rimac, Zach Frazier, Brandon Yates and Doug Nester — have been the lifeblood of WVU’s offense so far this season. Even when factoring in lost sack yardage, the Mountaineers are averaging 4.3 yards per carry and just over 200 rushing yards per game (200.3) through three games.
“Great teams do what it is they do even though teams know that’s what they’ve got to do to win ballgames,” offensive coordinator Chad Scott said. “When we lost Garrett, they had a pretty good idea that we weren’t going to be able to pass the ball as much as we wanted to and we were still able to control the clock, win down in the trenches, run the football and be effective running the football. That’s what good teams do.”
Also important was the 7 points given up and only 211 yards by the defense:
–The 6 points allowed by West Virginia is the fewest they’ve given up to Pittsburgh since 1996 when the Mountaineers shut them out. Yes, Pittsburgh’s quarterback Phil Jurkovec was bad. Really, bad. But credit West Virginia for responding and holding the Panthers to 211 yards while recording 3 interceptions. West Virginia held the Panthers to 4-15 on third and fourth down and the program really kept them in check over and over outside that first drive which spanned 67 yards and netted 3 points but they only mustered 144 yards and 3 points the rest of the way on 10 more drives. Jurkovec completed just 8 passes in this game and the Panthers were held to 3.6 per carry. Credit to West Virginia for affecting Jurkovec with pressure, too.
And just as it is key for Texas Tech, winning the turnover battle is a significant advantage for WVU right now:
West Virginia took advantage of the turnovers. Ten of the Mountaineers’ 17 points came off of drives that were started by takeaways by the defense.
One of the drives was only one play, as Marchiol earned his touchdown pass from the 7-yard line from an interception return by junior safety Aubrey Burks. The Mountaineers earned a field goal after another interception by redshirt senior cornerback Beanie Bishop.
“We knew coming into the game that their quarterback, he wasn’t that good at his job,” Bishop said. “But once Aubrey caught his, I told him, I was like, ‘Man, I’m next.’”
The last interception went to redshirt senior cornerback Malachi Ruffin. He did not do it alone, as redshirt senior safety Marcis Floyd tipped the ball into Ruffin’s hands.
The defense has gotten much better at stealing the ball since last season. In 2022, WVU finished the year with just four interceptions. Through just three games in 2023, the Mountaineers already have five and have yet to throw an interception.
The Mountaineers know that they’ll have to get stops along the way to stop the Texas Tech offense:
The Red Raiders have the advantage in comparison of most offensive stats, while WVU has the advantage on the defensive side. Add in the quality of opposition, though, and it would seem that Tech gets has the overall edge, as it has been productive against two good teams, while WVU was average at best against its one good foe.
So how does WVU offset this? It has to “steal” three or four possessions in this game. That could be gained by an advantage in turnover ratio, but also in getting a couple of three and outs or quick stops. It needs a couple of breaks, like Tech missing an open receiver or dropping a pass on a big third down. It needs some big plays of its own, and not necessarily in the passing game. The Mountaineers have just one run of 20 or more yards this year (Jahiem White’s 39-yarder against Duquesne) and the fact that the Mountaineers haven’t been able to produce at least a couple more is troubling, especially with the quality of the offensive line that many espouse. The passing game has just eight such plays, and five of those came against Duquesne. None were produced against Pitt.
The Red Raiders
I’m glad that Cam’Ron Valdez, Tyler Owens, Joseph Adedire, and Coy Eakin are all back this week.
As the quarterback questions continue (or do not continue), Don Williams asked Zach Kittley about Shough and Morton with the idea Morton is still maybe learning to defer, something that Shough has figured out:
Both Tech quarterbacks graded well Saturday, according to Kittley, whose analysis was enlightening. Kittley suggested Brooks’ success was due, in part, to Shough’s pre-snap recognition. Not that Morton’s lacking in that area, but even when the defensive alignment gives the run, Kittley said, Morton loves to throw it.
“He’s kind of going to give you that gunslinger type deal,” Kittley said. “He wants the ball in his hands, which is awesome, but again, I’m still trying to grow him in the nature that, ‘Hey, you’ve got two high (safeties) here. Let’s get to a run.’ He definitely has that gunslinger mentality.”
Contrast that with one of Shough’s strengths. Kittley said Tech game planned last week for a Tarleton State defense that tended to play one high safety and man coverage. Shough recognized and adjusted when that wasn’t what the Texans showed.
Freshmen defenders Mike Dingle and Dylan Spencer are standouts thus far in the early eseason:
“Kind of typical Dingle,” McGuire said Monday. “It’s funny. Coach Kittley, Wes Kittley, always talks about he’s a bull in a china closet and has no fear. If he doesn’t go over the hurdle, he’ll go through the hurdle. That’s kind of how he plays the game.”
/snip/
“He’s very strong,” defensive coordinator Tim DeRuyter said, “he’s got some natural pass-rush ability and when he fully develops and gets a little more size to him, he’s going to be a really strong force as an edge player for us, both in the run game and in the pass game.”
Stats
Statistically, Texas Tech has a pretty significant advantage. However, Texas Tech’s play efficiency isn’t great and their effective rush has not been good either, neither at the same level as WVU, which is odd considering WVU had a lights-out performance against Pitt. Texas Tech’s defense is a different matter and yes, West Virginia is probably going to run the damn ball and you can expect a heavy dose of the ball being run the damn hell out of.
Advanced Stats:
Texas Tech Offense vs. West Virginia Defense:
Texas Tech Defense vs. West Virginia Wyoming:
Odds and Ends
Do you like sports and beating Texas in Austin? There was 0:04 seconds left on the clock. Game over.
CAPTAIN, HANNAN ANDERSON, MAKES THE GOAL AND YOUR RED RAIDERS WIN ‼️‼️#WreckEm pic.twitter.com/VU0Rulpf1p
— Texas Tech Soccer (@TexasTechSoccer) September 22, 2023
I’m running my 50k in Jacksboro tomorrow and am not sure if I’ll get to watch the game. With that, I will tell you that the best running shorts and liner are from a small company called Path Projects. I’ve worn this t-shirt from Ten Thousand for 4 different 50k’s and if I have to grab one shirt to run in, this is that shirt. It is well-worn. I also will probably wear an Outdoor Research bucket hat to get as much sun coverage as possible. I will wear Atreyu Base Trail shoes and will wear Darn Tough Element Micro Crew socks that have always (fingers crossed) ensured that I don’t get any blisters.
Stratechery (which is a website I have never heard of and don’t even remember how I ran across it, but son of a gun, this is good) has what I would tell you is the magnum opus on the rise and fall of ESPN’s leverage:
The second lesson Disney forgot was why that NFL deal made sense for ESPN at the time, even though the surcharge ESPN charged cable providers was only projected to barely cover the deal: high end sports deals drove customer demand, but the real money was made on (1) everyone who didn’t care about football and (2) cheap content like SportsCenter. The latter, though, has also been impoverished by the Internet; I noted last year when the Big Ten signed a TV deal that excluded ESPN:
The Big Ten’s exclusion of ESPN really highlights the degree to which social media has supplanted ESPN’s previous tentpole shows like SportsCenter; ESPN used to get discounts on rights deals because to be excluded from SportsCenter meant publicity death. That’s no longer the case.
The former, meanwhile, is a reminder that while ESPN has generally made money from rights deals, particularly for smaller sports that filled the schedule and inspired niche fans to badger the cable companies, the biggest properties — particularly the NFL — have always been cognizant of their worth and willing to extract their full value. Disney, in turn, can only maintain ESPN profitability by passing on those rights fees to cable distributors, who must in turn pass them on to their customers.
The third lesson Disney has forgotten is the most counter-intuitive takeaway of this battle: the worst thing that has happened to the company’s negotiating position is that ESPN is already available on the Internet.
This is A++ work here and recommend the whole thing.
“People with a high mood modification report experiences related to a subjective experience that may be the consequence of engaging in a particular activity to develop a coping strategy for dealing with negative emotions,” said the authors. Those individuals may report engaging in ultra-running as a coping strategy for dealing with negative emotions and as a way to “Change my mood,” “to get a buzz,” and “to escape.” This means that people are considered dependent on or “addicted” to exercise when it becomes their primary or only coping mechanism for navigating challenging emotions like sadness, anxiety, and uncertainty.
Regarding personality traits, ultra-runners scored high in emotional stability, indicating a calm and even-tempered demeanor, even in challenging situations. The researchers found that these personality components may be risk factors for persisting in exercise despite negative consequences while also serving as levers for psychotherapeutic intervention.
This is only going to be interesting to a certain set of people, but it’s sport and fascinating to me. Sepp Kuss is a 29-year old American from Durango who just won the Vuelta a Espana, one of the 3 biggest bicycle races in the world. He did so as one of the best climbers in the world, but he also a water carrier, meaning that he’s really not a participant in races, but helping the elite riders win by carrying their water (but he is a participant and is the only rider to ride in all 3 major races). In this race he raced for himself. But he won this race and nearly lost because two of his Jumbo Vista teammates (Jumbo Vista is a cycling team, the best in the world) tried to pass him up in the overall standings without reason to do so.
Game Prediction
My analysis really depends on how Shough performs. I think he saw what we all saw, which is the crowd getting behind Behren Morton and a little bit of enthusiasm for what had been a lackluster offense from the second quarter onward. I think with a coaching staff, you’ve gone an entire offseason believing that Shough is the guy and that as a super senior that he would take the offense a step further. That hasn’t happened and McGuire will probably continue to believe until Shough simply cannot or does not.
I was thinking about the famous player coaches oath: 1) I will show courage when the hat’s on my head. 2) I will do my job. 3) I will know and do my job. 4) I will put this family first.
That last part of putting the family first is going to get tougher IF (that’s a capital if) Shough doesn’t show improvement and eliminate the turnovers. The elimination of the turnovers is probably the biggest thing, he can sort of keep the offense on track, but Texas Tech will need to sling it and they will need to trust the running backs.
The line is now at 6 and it seems like that’s too much, so I’ll take the points, but Texas Tech to win. I don’t know if the West Virginia offense has enough juice.