Football

7 Point Preview: Texas Tech vs. Baylor

The last one before the McGuire era begins.

1. Game Info

GAME THINGS
Texas Tech Red Raiders (6-5, 3-5)
Baylor Bears (9-2, 6-2)
November 27th @ 11:00 a.m.
McLane Stadium – Waco, Texas
Baylor -14.0
FS1 | FOX Sports Live
Rain 55-46.

2. Overview

RANKINGS TTU BU
ESPN FPI 65 17
FEI Rank: 73 12
Sharp FB Beta-Rank 70 17

I was all but certain that Oklahoma State would be the most balanced team that Texas Tech faced and that’s still true, but didn’t realize how close Baylor was to that statement too. I don’t know how accurate that will be given Baylor will be without starting quarterback Gerry Bohanan for this game, so there’s a decent chance that the Baylor offense won’t be as good as it would be with Bohanan at the helm.

I’d add that head coach Dave Aranda’s best attribute has been knowing when he’s wrong with his first offensive coordinator hire and looking to an offense that likes to run the ball a decent amount and that invariably helps the defense. I think it is one of the reasons why Joey McGuire has retained Sonny Cumbie as the offensive coordinator.

3. Texas Tech Offense vs. Baylor Defense

TTU Offense BU Defense
FEI 33 17
Sharp FB 37 17
Play Efficiency 20 20
Drive Efficiency 59 31
Negative Drives 26 24
Explosive Drives 33 25
Rush Efficiency 59 7
Pass Efficiency 25 57

RB Abram Smith (5-11/221): Smith is from Abilene and I hope that Smith is one of the last players to go from West Texas to Waco. Smith has 185 carries for 1,249 yards, averaging 6.8 yards a carry, over 113 yards a game with 11 touchdowns. Smith has 10 catches, so not a huge part of the passing game.

QB Blake Shapen (6-0/192): With Bohanan out, I think the quarterback will be Shapen. Shapen doesn’t have a ton of stats, just in mop-up time, completing 80% of his passes for 162 yards. If we can gather anything from Bohanan’s stats, he was averaging 196 yards passing a game, with 6 picks and 17 touchdowns while completing 64% of his passes. Bohanan had also run for 303 yards, averaging 4.3 yards a carry and had 9 touchdowns, averaging 27 yards a game.

WR Tyquan Thornton (6-3/182): Thorton is a big-play receiver, averaging 16 yards a catch, has 8 touchdowns, and 76 yards per game. Thorton is a huge part of the offense, but Bohanan spread the wealth with R.J. Sneed (6-1/203) grabbing 41 passes for 13 yards a carry, and tight end Ben Sims (6-4/253) has 25 catches for 12 yards a catch and 4 touchdowns.

4. Texas Tech Defense vs. Baylor Offense

TTU Defense BU Offense
FEI 110 30
Sharp FB 102 30
Play Efficiency 80 24
Drive Efficiency 110 61
Negative Drives 100 64
Explosive Drives 84 10
Rush Efficiency 94 15
Pass Efficiency 104 68

LB Bernard Terrel (6-1/222): Pressure. Terrel is one of a handful of players that are behind the line of scrimmage, but Terrel may be the most impressive. At linebacker, he’s got 68 tackles, 5 sacks, 8 tackles for a loss, 2 pass break-ups, and 5 QB pressures. I’d like to mention that big man Gabe Hall (6-5/290) leads the team with 6 sacks and is obviously a huge body for the interior of the defense.

S Jalen Pitre (6-0/197): Pressure. is a safety, but probably plays a hybrid role at safety and linebacker with 57 tackles, 15 tackles for a loss, 2 sacks, 2 picks, 5 pass break-ups, 3 QB pressures, 3 fumble recoveries, and 3 forced fumbles.

CB Raleigh Texada (5-11/188): Texada is from a long-time family in college football, I think he had a brother play at TCU and now he’s got 32 tackles, a pick, 2 pass break-ups, and 2 QB hurries.

5. Special Teams & Injuries

Punter Issac Power averages about 45 yards a punt, which is pretty good, but not as good as Austin McNamara. Isaiah Hankins is a good field goal kicker, knocking through 12 of 15, but 2 of his 3 misses are 50+ and has no 62 yard field goals. Noah Rauschenbert handles kickoff duties and of his 67 kickoffs, 59 were touchbacks. Trestan Ebner averages nearly 9 yards a punt return, so they will try to set up the return, which is different than what OSU did and Ebner averages about 24 yards a kickoff return.

6. Lagniappe

lagniappe | something given as a bonus or extra gift.

Uniform Combination for the final game.

College Football News | Baylor vs Texas Tech Prediction, Game Preview

7. Prediction

I’ll take Texas Tech and those points. I don’t think the game will be as wide-open this year because Bohanan is out. He’s pretty special and a big cog in the offense. I’ll also take the under as well, that Baylor defense is good.

I also know that I sort of sputtered as the season wound down. New coach, basketball started (which it always does), just so many activities that I sort of run out of time. Not enough time. Now I’m off to do a preview of Texas Tech hosting Lamar.

Sources

Football Outsiders
ESPN FPI
Sharp College Football
CFB Stats

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