Football

Setting the Big 12 Table: Week 5

We’re already to week 5.

After having kept track of some bets during this season, I think I’ve come to realize that I don’t know anything about betting and lines. It’s darn near insane as to how many units of money I’m able to lose on a weekly basis (I’m not betting real money so maybe that’s the problem). I know everyone says that they should just be the opposite of me, but thus far the only success I’ve had is early in the season and betting against Kansas and UConn, but even betting against UConn backfired this week as they were 30-point underdogs to Wyoming, but ended up only losing by 2. Womp. Womp.

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TEXAS @ TCU

Date & Time: Saturday, October 2nd @ 11:00 am
TV: ABC
Line: Texas -4.0
Commentary: TCU losing to SMU wasn’t something I really thought would happen (again don’t listen to any of my betting advice), but the Ponies ran straight over the Horned Frogs. At this point, you wonder if Texas Tech should have hired Sonny Dykes rather than Wells as they both started at close to the same time. Texas, well, the Longhorns demolished your Red Raiders led by a potent offense. So yes, my guess is that Texas will play better than the last time they were on the road, but I do hate underestimating Gary Patterson. This game being only a 4 point spread is wild considering what happened next week (i.e. TCU losing to SMU and Texas whipping Texas Tech), but I’m about to give up trying to think like Vegas.

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OKLAHOMA VS. KANSAS STATE

Date & Time: Saturday, October 2nd @ 2:30 pm
TV: FOX
Line: Oklahoma -10.5
Commentary: I did not see Kansas State showing up so poorly as they did against Oklahoma State, but the Big 12 conference home teams (this excludes Kansas and TCU) won and Kansas State had a tough time showing up in Stillwater. they were down 21-10 in the fist quarter and 31-13 by halftime. Oklahoma squeaked by West Virginia in Norman. I’m not sure what the deal is with Oklahoma, but they certainly not a playoff contender at this point. I think that 3 weeks ago this would have been a 20 point spread, but Oklahoma, on the road against a traditionally tough opponent. Oklahoma fans were chanting the name of the backup quarterback over Spencer Rattler, so he’s not been playing up to his preseason hype thus far this season. Is it possible that Lincoln Riley has been figured out a little bit by coaches?

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TEXAS TECH VS. WEST VIRGINIA

Date & Time: Saturday, October 2nd @ 2:30 pm
TV: ESPN2
Line: West Virginia -7.5
Commentary: I don’t have any words of consolation for you regarding Texas Tech’s loss to Texas. It was an absolute whipping from what I could tell and although I didn’t watch a second of it, I don’t know that I need to at this point. Every team will have a stinker (except for Alabama) and my hope is that this is Texas Tech’s stinker and not who they are. West Virginia lost to Oklahoma on the road but had the Sooners on the ropes for most of the game. The Mountaineer defense held the Sooners in check for nearly the entire game and a wounded Texas Tech offense going to Morgantown worries me quite a bit. I’m surprised at the line as well, I would have thought that this would have been more in favor of a West Virginia being favored by more. Last night, head coach Matt Wells confirmed that QB Tyler Shough would be out 6 weeks with a broken collar bone so that means Henry Colombi will get the nod and he’ll be fine. If you listen to the press conference (which I did, but didn’t have time to summarize this morning) Wells talks about the defense needing to simply play their gaps, get the signal correctly and didn’t make their open field tackles. As far as RB Tahj Brooks, CB DaMarcus Fields, and S Marquis “Muddy” Waters are all day-to-day with injuries, which typically means that they aren’t out for an extended period of time.

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BAYLOR @ OKLAHOMA STATE

Date & Time: Saturday, October 2nd @ 6:00 pm
TV: ESPN2
Line: Oklahoma State -4.0
Commentary: A surprising Baylor team upended the cyclones and don’t look now but Baylor may be the team that’s playing the best right now. The Bears will hit the road to take on Oklahoma State, who will start the Big 12 play with two home games to start their slate. I would love to know the against the spread rate in home vs. away teams in the Big 12. My thought is that Baylor will struggle in a night game on the road, but as stated previously, just did the opposite of what I’m suggesting. I’m not surprised that Oklahoma State is favored despite struggling a bit this season (struggling in the sense that they weren’t blowing out opponents that they maybe should have). Baylor has been on fire thus far this season.

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KANSAS @ IOWA STATE

Date & Time: Saturday, October 2nd @ 6:00 pm
TV: FS1
Line: Iowa State -33.0
Commentary: Well, I’m not sure what Iowa State actually is. The Cyclones lost to Baylor last week and this is just so odd for a Matt Campbell team. I also didn’t think that Baylor would win, but maybe that’s the benefit of playing at home. Kansas did get their doors blown off by Duke, 52-33, but they di score 21 points in the 2nd quarter alone, which is a lot by just about everyone. I would expect Iowa State to bounce back but I’m not really sure. And a night game in Ames means that the Iowa State contingent will be more than ready to be hyped because they sell out games no matter what.

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