GAME THINGS
	Texas Tech Red Raiders (2-4, 1-4)
	TCU Horned Frogs (2-3, 2-3)
	November 7th @ 2:30 p.m.
	Amon G. Carter Stadium – Fort Worth, Texas
	TCU -9
	FS1 | FOXSportsGO
	Partly Cloudy, 74-60.

5 Players to Scheme Around

1. LB Garret Wallow (6-1/205, Fr.): Wallow averages 8 tackles a game, was a preseason all-conference sort of guy. He’s got 5.5 tackles for a loss, a sack, 2 quarterback hurries, and 2 forced fumbles.

2. QB Max Duggan (6-2/201, So.):Duggan is a guy that I didn’t think would be all that great, but he’s actually been okay, or better than okay. Completing 68% of his passes for 7.5 yards per attempt, 5 touchdowns, 1 interception, and 208 yards a game. That’s a high completion rate, but not a high yards per attempt. Duggan will also bring the ball down and run the ball, not a high yards per attempt, 2.87, but he runs the ball 12 times a game. So he’s better than okay. Highly technical term obviously.

3. DE Khari Coleman (6-2/224, Fr..): Coleman has 7.5 tackles for a loss with just 4 games played. That’s nearly 2 TFL per game, with nearly 4 tackles a game, and 2 sacks.

4. S La’Kendrick Van Zandt (6-1/195, Jr.): There’s always a safety. Van Zandt averages about 5 tackles a game, has 2.5 tackles for a loss, 3 passes broken up, and 2 interceptions. Highly productive and does lots of things.

5. WR Taye Barber (5-9/185, Jr.): Barber is the leading receiver by a decent margin. Barber has 24 receptions and 254 yards, averaging 10.5 yards per catch and 50 yards receiving a game with 2 touchdowns. Barber also have 8 carries for 32 yards, so he’ll run a couple of times a game.

Thoughts Based on Some YouTube Video

Really nice pitch and catch to start things off. Single coverage and that receiver, #1, looks really big . . . after that, TCU scores easily on run to the side side of the field . . . TCU getting a punt return for a touchdown is something to watch and if there was a game not to have special teams issues, this would be it . . . the pitch to the receiver isn’t some sort of great play, just out-running the defense . . . the corner blitz happened so fast and I don’t like that . . . the zone read play from #6 is like being shot out of a cannon, the acceleration was significant . . . the late miscues for TCU are kind of irrelevant being up 30, but they got up so quick on TCU, it was significant . . . the TCU running game is the best thing about their offense apparently . . . that’s sort of a cause for concern . . . Baylor is throwing a ton of passes in traffic and that’s a dangerous combination because on a different play, that sucker gets picked or tipped, just ask Henry Colombi . . .

Stats

Back with TeamRankings for the stats.

• Texas Tech has a slight offensive advantage, while TCU has a defensive advantage. Texas Tech averages .440 points a game, while TCU averages .336, while both teams are around 5.5 yards per play. On the defensive side, TCU allows only .460 points per play compared to .536 for Texas Tech and the difference in yards per game is over 100 yards, 478 to 375, in favor of TCU.
• TCU does a great job of getting to the passer, and this was a big deal last week. TCU gets to the passer 6.8% of the time compared to just 2.02% for Texas Tech. Granted, Texas Tech doesn’t allow a ton of sacks, but the pressure was significant last week and TCU has always shown an ability to get to a passer.
• TCU has a passing advantage, 7.2 yards per pass compared to 6.4 for Texas Tech, while Texas Tech holds a slight rushing edge, 4.7 compared to 4.3.
• Texas Tech converts 40.85% of their third downs, while TCU only allows 31.34%. That’s not real good for Texas Tech. And flipping the script, TCU converts 35.06% of third downs, while Texas Tech allows 40.85%.
• TCU runs 52% of the time, while Texas Tech runs it 42% of the time. I think you can expect a pretty healthy dose of the TCU running game, but I just don’t know how effective they are. Duggan is the guy that runs a ton, he has 20+ more carries than the leading rusher.
• TCU’s defense is only on the field for 63 plays per game compared to nearly 80 for Texas Tech. If you ever wanted to know why Texas Tech is giving up 100 yards a game more than TCU, well, this is it.

General Thoughts and Prediction On the Game

Here’s something that’s been rolling around in my brain. I’ve told you all that I realy don’t follow the Dallas Cowboys, but I live in Dallas, so I sort of follow along because it’s on. I don’t actually watch the games, I watched a bit of the game on Sunday night, I think up until the end of the half.

What I started thinking in watching both Dallas’ quarterback and Philadelphia’s is that nothing can cover up the stench of a team like a good quarterback. Think back to those Patrick Mahomes years and think how bad those teams would be if Mahomes wasn’t a magician? What you’re seeing now with Texas Tech’s team is that the coaching staff hasn’t really had time or opportunity to have “their” quarterback, so they’re sort of stuck with the quarterback that gives the team the best chance of winning.

What we saw last week with Henry Colombi against Oklahoma and the week before with West Virginia is probably pretty accurate. Not a huge arm, doesn’t get the ball down the field, relies on being effective by using his legs, isn’t going to throw you in or out of a game. With Alan Bowman, you’re getting someone that technically knows the playbook, has a difficult time freelancing, has a better arm than Colombi.

These are both quarterbacks that are pretty limited in what they can do, and this isn’t a knock on them, but they’re not capable of really elevating a team to more than what they are. They’re not terrible, but they’re not great, they’re just average. If they were even slightly better than average, I think you’d see a much better team. But that’s not the case and I don’t know that either quarterback is a quarterback that you can really build around.

That’s a huge deal and if you want to pull yourself up out of the middling to lower tier team that is Texas Tech, part of it is improving the roster, but a bigger part of it is finding that quarterback that is going to elevate your team. It’s easier said than done.

For this staff, they technically recruited Maverick McIvor (McIvor originally committed to Kingsbury and Wells re-recruited him), but he’s been passed up by Colombi. This staff absolutely recruited Donovan Smith, the son of running backs coach Deandre Smith, but Donovan had shoulder surgery so he’s not an option. The staff and Yost thought that Bowman was the best option and maybe he was, but mid-season that’s changed.

If pulling yourself out of the bottom half of the conference is what you want to do, then maybe (and I’m really just theorizing here) is that you have to find a quarterback that you think will eventually pull your program up. Play him as a redshirt freshman or freshman, go through the growing pains, and you’ll probably be paid off by the time that quarterback is a junior. Again, easier said that done, but think of all of the good teams in the conference and the one thing that’s constant is good to great quarterback play. Solving that maybe solves a lot more.

As far as this week’s game, here’s some statistical analysis.

Saturday, 2:30 PM CST
Texas Tech at TCU
Line: TCU -9.5 pic.twitter.com/HQpcTvOdi6

— parker (@statsowar) November 4, 2020

🔥 WEEK 10 SP+ PICKS 🔥

* Big games: BYU 31-27, Clemson 28-27 … and Fla 26.0, UGA 25.9 👀
* We finally get to find out if SP+’s love of Washington is requited
* Note: Dropping HFA back to 2 pts from 2.5. It remains a moving target, but 2.5 was prob too aggressive. pic.twitter.com/UkgWiYETH7

— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) November 4, 2020

I remember looking at the data from from StatsOWar last week against Oklahoma and I thought that Texas Tech had a chance. I thought Oklahoma would win the game, but not beat the spread. Personally, I think that TCU doesn’t have the offense to put up huge numbers. Last week Connelly accurately predicted that OU would beat the spread handily and he’s predicting that again. Connelly thinks that Texas Tech loses by 12 and the current line has pushed down to TCU -9 or -8.5. Who should I trust this week? I’m trusting Connelly and thinking that TCU gets their first home win and beats the spread too.

When thinking about this game, I try to consider what Texas Tech does well, especially on offense and right now, I’m not sure I know what that is. With Colombi taking snaps, it’s not the passing game that’s lights out and it’s not the running game either. Again, this goes back to identity and imposing your will on an opposing team and I’m again not sure what that is.

I’m increasingly concerned about the offensive line creating space for the running backs and Colombi getting vertical enough with the passing game that TCU will back off of rushing 4 and dropping 7. That’s always been a killer for first-time quarterbacks playing TCU and Patterson seems to get how to confuse quarterbacks in Colombi’s situation.