This week, we’ve all been glued to the latest updates and numbers, trying to figure out who the winner will be. And of course I’m talking about what the analytics say about Texas Tech’s battle for the saddle with TCU.

ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI)

Team	National Rank	FPI	Big 12 Title Odds (%)
Oklahoma	8	18.9	31.9
Texas	12	17.2	30.4
Oklahoma State	15	13.5	15.4
Iowa State	25	10.9	14.9
TCU	26	10.3	0.7
West Virginia	32	7.9	1.4
Baylor	37	7.1	0.1
Kansas State	39	6.3	5
Texas Tech	78	-1	0
Kansas	118	-14.8	0

 

Here’s the remaining game-by-game projection for the Red Raiders. FPI projects a season record of 3.5 wins and 6.5 losses.

Opponent	Win Probability (%)	Trend from last week (%)
@ TCU	16.1	-1.5
Baylor	31.6	0.9
@ Oklahoma State	13.7	0.8
Kansas	87.2	1.1
Season average	37.15	0.325

 

SP+

Team	National Rank	SP+
Oklahoma State	10	17.5
Oklahoma	11	17.3
Iowa State	18	14.3
Texas	29	10.3
West Virginia	34	7.5
Baylor	47	4.2
TCU	50	3.9
Kansas State	67	-0.5
Texas Tech	94	-6.1
Kansas	119	-16.7

 

Adam McClintock (@CFB_Professor)

Team	National Rank
Oklahoma	5
Texas	12
Oklahoma State	17
West Virginia	32
Iowa State	34
TCU	36
Kansas State	52
Baylor	53
Texas Tech	75
Kansas	117

 

McClintock has Texas Tech as a 10.5-point underdog and gives them a 20% chance to win.

 

Sagarin Ratings

Team	National Rank	Sagarin Rating
Oklahoma	8	90
Oklahoma State	10	87
Texas	14	86
Iowa State	22	82
West Virginia	26	80
TCU	30	79
Kansas State	35	77
Baylor	46	75
Texas Tech	73	69
Kansas	123	58

 

Sagarin is pretty close to McClintock and FPI, giving Texas Tech a 24% chance to win and has them pegged as 11-point underdogs.

 

Las Vegas

The consensus line in Vegas is TCU -10 and I’ve seen a money line of Texas Tech +265 (implied odds of about 27%). All in all the models and odds makers seem roughly in agreement with one another, giving Texas Tech about a one in four to one in five chance to pull off the upset.