What a gut punch last Saturday was. I don’t want to talk about it. Texas Tech might have gained a tad bit of respect from the analytical models for playing a highly ranked team so close. Let’s see what they have to say headed into tomorrow’s bout with Kansas State.
ESPN Football Power Index (FPI)
| Team | National Rank | FPI | Big 12 Title Odds (%) |
| Texas | 8 | 19.8 | 65.5 |
| Oklahoma | 12 | 14.1 | 10.5 |
| Oklahoma State | 20 | 11 | 9.4 |
| TCU | 22 | 10.3 | 3.5 |
| Baylor | 26 | 9.3 | 4.9 |
| Kansas State | 33 | 6.5 | 3 |
| Iowa State | 36 | 6.1 | 2.7 |
| West Virginia | 38 | 5.6 | 0.5 |
| Texas Tech | 53 | 0.8 | 0.1 |
| Kansas | 82 | -10.9 | 0 |
Despite the loss, Texas Tech earned about two FPI points from last week to this week. FPI’s projected season record went from 3.6 wins to 3.8. Here are the remaining game-by-game probabilities for Texas Tech.
| Opponent | Win Probability (%) |
Trend from last week
|
| @ Kansas State | 28 | -2.6 |
| @ Iowa State | 30.3 | 0.9 |
| West Virginia | 47.6 | 7.6 |
| Oklahoma | 19.6 | 7.4 |
| @ TCU | 19.2 | 5.8 |
| Baylor | 30.4 | 0.9 |
| @ Oklahoma State | 21.1 | 1.8 |
| Kansas | 84 | 5.6 |
| Season average | 28.02 | 2.74 |
SP+
Here’s how the Big 12 shakes out according to Bill Connelly’s SP+ model.
| Team | National Rank | SP+ |
| Oklahoma | 10 | 19.1 |
| Texas | 11 | 18.5 |
| Baylor | 21 | 14.3 |
| Oklahoma State | 28 | 11.6 |
| Iowa State | 41 | 7.1 |
| TCU | 45 | 5.9 |
| West Virginia | 50 | 3.5 |
| Kansas State | 54 | 2.4 |
| Texas Tech | 70 | -2.6 |
| Kansas | 119 | -15.4 |
Yet again, Texas Tech gained about two points in this model from week to week.
Adam McClintock (@CFB_Professor)
| Team | National Rank |
| Oklahoma | 5 |
| Texas | 10 |
| Oklahoma State | 20 |
| TCU | 34 |
| West Virginia | 37 |
| Baylor | 44 |
| Iowa State | 50 |
| Kansas State | 55 |
| Texas Tech | 77 |
| Kansas | 107 |
McClintock’s model, usually more bearish on Texas Tech than other models, is actually the most bullish on the Red Raiders compared to the other models this week. He gives Texas Tech a 35% chance to win in Manhattan and has them pegged as 5-point under dogs.
Sagarin Ratings
| Team | National Rank | Sagarin Rating |
| Oklahoma | 3 | 93 |
| Texas | 16 | 85 |
| Kansas State | 19 | 84 |
| Oklahoma State | 20 | 83 |
| Baylor | 30 | 80 |
| West Virginia | 51 | 73 |
| TCU | 60 | 71 |
| Iowa State | 73 | 68 |
| Texas Tech | 74 | 68 |
| Kansas | 120 | 56 |
I’ve long thought that Sagarin is influenced too much by recent results. It’s an outlier compared to other models this week as Kansas State catapulted all the way to third in the conference. Yes, they beat Oklahoma, but some of the advanced stats weren’t pretty. In other words, the win may have been a fluke and unsustainable. I guess we’ll find out as the season goes along. Sagarin has Tech as an 18-point dog and gives them just a 12% chance to win the game.
Las Vegas
The Red Raiders opened as a 4-point dog but the line has narrowed to 2.5 at almost all sports books. They’re currently at +115 on the money line (wager $100 to profit $115) which are implied odds of 46.5%.
It’s interesting to me that Vegas gives better implied odds for Texas Tech than all the models do. Are they trying to suck in bettors to go with Texas Tech? Or do they legitimately think the two teams are more even than all these models?
One more nugget before we wrap up this week’s piece. I found this TCU fan who does analytics and predictions. He had Texas Tech at 25% to beat Texas last week, higher than any analytical model or the implied odds in Vegas. This week he actually has Texas Tech as a two-to-one favorite to win in Manhattan. I’m not sure I’m that confident, but it’s interesting and I wanted to pass along. Let’s hope he’s the most accurate once again this week.
https://twitter.com/statsowar/status/1311029764052914176?s=20