We’re back from the bye with this week’s “By the Numbers.” Simply stated, the analytical models are extremely bearish on Texas Tech following the close call against Houston Baptist. Here’s what they have to say about the Red Raiders and the rest of the Big 12.
ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI)
| Team | National Rank | FPI | Big 12 Title Odds (%) |
| Texas | 10 | 20.3 | 56.2 |
| Oklahoma | 13 | 16.9 | 26.4 |
| TCU | 17 | 12 | 9.6 |
| Oklahoma State | 22 | 10.1 | 4.2 |
| Baylor | 26 | 7.8 | 1.7 |
| West Virginia | 33 | 6.2 | 1.1 |
| Iowa State | 41 | 4.6 | 0.4 |
| Kansas State | 43 | 3.7 | 0.3 |
| Texas Tech | 62 | -1.1 | 0 |
| Kansas | 82 | -9.7 | 0 |
| Opponent | Win Probability (%) |
Trend from last week (%)
|
| Texas | 8.4 | -12.6 |
| @ Kansas State | 30.6 | -8.9 |
| @ Iowa State | 29.4 | -5.8 |
| West Virginia | 40 | -27 |
| Oklahoma | 12.2 | -8.6 |
| @ TCU | 13.4 | -14.3 |
| Baylor | 29.5 | -21.4 |
| @ Oklahoma State | 19.3 | -8.2 |
| Kansas | 78.4 | -7.7 |
| Season average | 26.12 | -11.45 |
It is pretty disheartening to see that Texas Tech doesn’t have better than a 40 percent chance to beat anyone left on its schedule besides Kansas. FPI currently projects the Red Raiders will finish with 3.6 wins and 6.4 losses.
SP+
| Team | National Rank | SP+ |
| Oklahoma | 9 | 20.9 |
| Texas | 10 | 20.7 |
| Baylor | 23 | 10.8 |
| Oklahoma State | 32 | 7.3 |
| TCU | 33 | 6.9 |
| Iowa State | 37 | 4.7 |
| West Virginia | 42 | 3.3 |
| Texas Tech | 61 | -4.8 |
| Kansas State | 62 | -4.9 |
| Kansas | 88 | -18.2 |
Adam McClintock (@CFB_Professor)
| Team | National Rank |
| Oklahoma | 4 |
| Texas | 11 |
| Oklahoma State | 23 |
| TCU | 33 |
| West Virginia | 35 |
| Iowa State | 50 |
| Baylor | 51 |
| Kansas State | 67 |
| Texas Tech | 80 |
| Kansas | 101 |
McClintock’s model is comparable with FPI and the line in Las Vegas. He gives the Red Raiders a 7 percent chance to win the game and has them pegged as 17-point underdogs.
Sagarin
| Team | National Rank | Sagarin Rating |
| Oklahoma | 5 | 92 |
| Texas | 12 | 88 |
| Oklahoma State | 16 | 85 |
| Baylor | 24 | 81 |
| TCU | 27 | 80 |
| West Virginia | 40 | 76 |
| Iowa State | 53 | 73 |
| Kansas State | 55 | 72 |
| Texas Tech | 87 | 66 |
| Kansas | 117 | 57 |
Sagarin gives the good guys an 11 percent chance of pulling off the upset.
Las Vegas
Texas Tech is a 17.5-point home underdog in this one and you can get them at +575 on the money line (risk $100, profit $575 with a win), which is an implied odds of victory of 14.8 percent. It is a rare occasion for the Red Raiders to be such an overwhelming underdog at home, as noted by our very own Tech Hoops Guy:
Answer:
2006 UT – Lost 35-31, but covered
2011 OSU – [insert dancing ginger meme]
2014 OU – Pat's first real start, Tech lost, but covered
2016 OU – Pat v. Baker, Tech lost, but covered
2017 OSU – Lost but covered
2018 OU – Lost but covered https://t.co/YP9oxzr987— Tech Hoops Guy (@TechHoopsGuy) September 22, 2020