I’ve been a little curious about the offense and I had been thinking about what kind of production we can expect to see from the offense and what each player would likely do based on past performance. This is a little tricky because of the change in offense and philosophy.
So I decided to do a little math. Namely, I started to do the averages of the 2017 and 2018 Utah State teams along with the 2019 Texas Tech team to give us an idea as to what to expect from the offense in 2020. Or maybe help me generalize some thoughts on wha the 2020 version might look like.
Passing
These figures consider every attempt, so even if it was a halfback pass or a punter throwing a lob, it’s included. I’ll have some individual quarterback numbers to follow-up this post (along with running back and receiver). Statistically, I think that if I were to project, I’d think I’d start with 3,600 total yards passing and then the other numbers should fall in line. If Texas Tech averages about 64% completion percentage and around 7.5 yards per attempt, that’s about 484 completions. Just throwing out figures, I think if the offense was in the neighborhood of 28 to 30 touchdowns, sub-10 interceptions, I’d be pretty pleased with that.
A couple of takeaways here is that this TTU 2019 offense passed for more yards than a pretty talented Jordan Love offense and the TTU 2019 offense didn’t really have the quarterback that I think they wanted in Jet Duffey. So part of me thinks that they were more conservative, but I still don’t think that Yost will let loose much more than those projections simply because he’d lack the balance that I think he wants from the offense. Highest attempt average and highest yards per game from the TTU 2019 offense.
Rushing
Again, these rushing figures include everything, from fake punts to running backs, to a jet sweep. Whatever. If I were to guess, I’d guess that Yost wants to be closer to the Utah State teams than he was for the TTU 2019 team. Projecting out, I think Yost would like to run the ball 450 times and if the average holds up, about 4.84 yards per carry, that’s 2,178 yards over the course of the season. I also think that touchdown average is pretty good and the attempts per game are actually on par with what I think would be good for the offense, about 36 a game. And I think shooting for about 175-180 yards a game would be a pretty good goal. And the touchdown totals? I’d love to see close to 30 touchdowns for the rushing offense. I think that would be solid
Receiving
Again, includes any and all receptions. The interesting thing here is how unproductive the USU 2017 team was, as the TTU 2019 team threw for nearly 1,000 more and had 90 or so more receptions than that 2017 team. The average is pretty consistent, with the high-mark being the USU 2018 team. The USU 2018 team was also more explosive, by a decent amount, almost equalling the TTU 2019 team in terms of yards, but on 39 fewer receptions.
The takeaway for me? The TTU 2019 offense threw more, but I’d like to see numbers more similar to the USU 2018 team, about 300 receiving yards a game, which is in-line with what I wrote above.
Final Thoughts
If the 2020 version of Texas Tech were to hit their mark of 2,100 yards rushing and 3,600 yards passing that would put them 2nd in the conference (based on 2019 totals). Last year, the total offenses had Oklahoma first with 7,527 total yards, 3,363 rushing and 4,164 rushing, while Texas Tech was second in total offense with 1,795 rushing yards and 3,896 passing yards for a total of 5,691.
I’m predicting about the same number of yards, 5,700 or so, but I think the rushing yards, 2,200, and passing yards, 3,400, are going to be reallocated a bit, which I think will make for a more productive offense.
From a scoring perspective, if Texas Tech were to earn 60 touchdowns this year, 30 passing and 30 rushing, that would put them again, near the top of the Big 12 based on last year’s numbers. Last year Oklahoma led with 76 touchdowns (which, again includes any sort of touchdown, offensive or defensive) and Baylor had 61 and Texas had 59. If Texas Tech were in that 60 touchdown range on just offense, I think I’d be pretty happy with how the offense is performing overall.
Would love to hear your thoughts. I’ll get into some individual production performances here in the upcoming weeks, including some defensive projections as well.