Using Analytics to Inform Gambling Picks (Week 13)

Last Week’s Results

Simply stated, it was another poor showing this week. As you’ll see below, we are in on a lot of action this week which means one of two things: 1) We have a good week and get closer to even money on the year or 2) We dig ourselves into a really deep hole and show that the analytics don’t lead to good gambling decisions.

Last Week’s Results: -69.46 units (-$6,946 if betting with $100 units)
YTD: -262.28 units (-$26,228)

Biggest Movers in Vegas

Last Week: 6-3, YTD: 59-36-2

Yet another good week using this method. Here are the big movers this week.

Nebraska opened -7.5 and is now -4.5 vs. Maryland
Iowa opened -12 and is now -15.5 vs. Illinois
Minnesota opened -7 and is now -13.5 vs. Northwestern
USC opened -10 and is now -13.5 vs. UCLA
Washington State opened -15.5 and is now -10.5 vs. Oregon State
Arkansas State opened -3 and is now +1 vs. Georgia Southern
Virginia Tech opened -1 and is now -4 vs. Pitt
UAB opened -1 and is now -6 vs. Louisiana Tech

From The Hip

Last Week: 2-5, YTD: 21-29-1

Keep fading, folks. I am not very good at this. Here are this week’s picks:

Texas A&M +13.5 vs. Georgia
Kansas State +2.5 vs. Texas Tech
Navy -3.5 vs. SMU and UNDER 66.5
Arkansas +44 vs. LSU
Oklahoma -18 vs. TCU
Ohio State and Penn State OVER 58

Week 13 Picks Using Analytics

Louisiana Tech +200 vs. UAB, 2u
Houston +125 vs. Tulsa
Coastal Carolina +190 vs. ULM, 2u
Troy +450 vs. ULaLa
Tennessee +160 vs. Mizzou
Northwestern +450 vs. Minnesota
Duke +250 vs. Wake Forest
South Alabama +300 vs. Georgia State
UNLV +200 vs/ San Jose State
Syracuse +280 vs. Louisville
UTEP +230 vs. New Mexico State
UCLA +450 vs. USC
USF +450 vs. Memphis
Texas +180 vs. Baylor
San Diego State +125 vs. Hawaii
Old Dominion +500 vs. Mid Tennessee State
Penn State +700 vs. Ohio State
Temple +325 vs. Cincinnati
TCU +800 vs. Oklahoma
UConn +475 vs. ECU
NC State +110 vs. Georgia Tech, 2u
Nevada +450 vs. Fresno State
Kansas State +115 vs. Texas Tech
Wyoming -250 vs. Colorado State
Arkansas State -105 vs. Georgia Southern
Maryland +170 vs. Nebraska

I count 26 matchups and 29 total units being wagered on the games straight up. After pairing each of the 26 matchups as two-game parlays, that’s an additional 325 units of risk. Total, we’re risking 354 units this weekend.

I hate when the analytics point to this many games. When you’re betting on nearly half of the weekend’s action, there’s almost no way you’ll come out ahead of Vegas. Oh well, at least it’s not real money.