By the Numbers: Texas Tech and Big 12 Outlook (Week 13)

Another tough loss on Saturday, as Texas Tech fell for the third time this year by a margin of 3 points or fewer. Matt Wells said it best in his postgame press conference when he said the team was knocking on the door, and eventually they’ll knock it down. The win-loss column this year is a disappointment, but I’ve seen some positives that I think can be built upon. Here’s what the numbers say as we head down the stretch.

ESPN’s Football Power Index

Team National Rank FPI Big 12 Title Odds
Oklahoma 8 21.6 75.5
Iowa State 19 13.8 0
Baylor 21 11.8 23.2
Texas 23 10.4 0.6
Oklahoma State 25 9.4 0.6
TCU 33 7.7 0
Kansas State 37 7.3 0
Texas Tech 51 3.2 0
West Virginia 75 -2.4 0
Kansas 98 -8.4 0


The FPI score is the expected margin of victory against an average team on a neutral field. Boston College is the most average team in the country according to FPI, listed at -0.1. It’s a pretty clear two horse race for the Big 12 title. Fun fact: if Tech beat Baylor, Kansas, and TCU, they’d be in second place in the Big 12 right now and in control of their own destiny to appear in the Big 12 championship game. Crazy, huh?

Below are the odds of victory for Texas Tech against each remaining opponent.

Texas Tech Win Probability (%)
Kansas State 46.7
@ Texas 23


Below are the odds that Texas Tech finishes with all possible season records. FPI currently projects Tech to finish 4.7-7.3.

Record Probability (%)
4-8 41
5-7 48.3
6-6 10.7



SP+ measures the same thing as FPI; expected margin of victory against an average team on a neutral field. For reference, SP+ has Army as the most average team in the country with an SP+ of 0.1.

Team National Rank SP+
Oklahoma 6 26.1
Baylor 21 17.3
Iowa State 22 16.3
Oklahoma State 27 12.4
Texas 28 10.8
TCU 31 9.9
Kansas State 43 6.4
Texas Tech 47 4.8
West Virginia 94 -6.2
Kansas 102 -9.9


Adam McClintock

Adam McClintock ranks all 130 FBS teams every week and predicts the margin of victory for each FBS vs. FBS matchup. He is giving Tech a 46 percent chance to win and lists the Red Raiders as 1-point underdogs.

Team National Rank
Oklahoma 9
Iowa State 21
Texas 22
Baylor 25
TCU 28
Oklahoma State 29
Kansas State 43
Texas Tech 54
West Virginia 68
Kansas 95



Team National Rank Sagarin
Oklahoma 6 92.84
Baylor 16 85.17
Iowa State 18 84.07
Oklahoma State 21 83.02
Texas 22 82.94
Kansas State 28 78.87
TCU 31 78.51
Texas Tech 45 74.44
West Virginia 57 71.26
Kansas 88 64.74


Sagarin’s prediction is similar to FPI and McClintock, giving the Red Raiders a 44 percent chance to win and listed as two-point underdogs.


Las Vegas

The oddsmakers in Vegas have this as a close matchup but flipped in favor of Texas Tech a little bit. The Red Raiders opened as a 1-point favorite and have moved to 2.5-point favorites since. They are money line favorites of about -140, which are implied odds of 58 percent to win the game. That’s a pretty big gap from most of the analytical models, so we may see a favorable wager on Kansas State in my weekly analytics gambling post.


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