Another tough loss on Saturday, as Texas Tech fell for the third time this year by a margin of 3 points or fewer. Matt Wells said it best in his postgame press conference when he said the team was knocking on the door, and eventually they’ll knock it down. The win-loss column this year is a disappointment, but I’ve seen some positives that I think can be built upon. Here’s what the numbers say as we head down the stretch.
ESPN’s Football Power Index
| Team | National Rank | FPI | Big 12 Title Odds |
| Oklahoma | 8 | 21.6 | 75.5 |
| Iowa State | 19 | 13.8 | 0 |
| Baylor | 21 | 11.8 | 23.2 |
| Texas | 23 | 10.4 | 0.6 |
| Oklahoma State | 25 | 9.4 | 0.6 |
| TCU | 33 | 7.7 | 0 |
| Kansas State | 37 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Texas Tech | 51 | 3.2 | 0 |
| West Virginia | 75 | -2.4 | 0 |
| Kansas | 98 | -8.4 | 0 |
The FPI score is the expected margin of victory against an average team on a neutral field. Boston College is the most average team in the country according to FPI, listed at -0.1. It’s a pretty clear two horse race for the Big 12 title. Fun fact: if Tech beat Baylor, Kansas, and TCU, they’d be in second place in the Big 12 right now and in control of their own destiny to appear in the Big 12 championship game. Crazy, huh?
Below are the odds of victory for Texas Tech against each remaining opponent.
| Opponent |
Texas Tech Win Probability (%)
|
| Kansas State | 46.7 |
| @ Texas | 23 |
Below are the odds that Texas Tech finishes with all possible season records. FPI currently projects Tech to finish 4.7-7.3.
| Record | Probability (%) |
| 4-8 | 41 |
| 5-7 | 48.3 |
| 6-6 | 10.7 |
SP+
SP+ measures the same thing as FPI; expected margin of victory against an average team on a neutral field. For reference, SP+ has Army as the most average team in the country with an SP+ of 0.1.
| Team | National Rank | SP+ |
| Oklahoma | 6 | 26.1 |
| Baylor | 21 | 17.3 |
| Iowa State | 22 | 16.3 |
| Oklahoma State | 27 | 12.4 |
| Texas | 28 | 10.8 |
| TCU | 31 | 9.9 |
| Kansas State | 43 | 6.4 |
| Texas Tech | 47 | 4.8 |
| West Virginia | 94 | -6.2 |
| Kansas | 102 | -9.9 |
Adam McClintock
Adam McClintock ranks all 130 FBS teams every week and predicts the margin of victory for each FBS vs. FBS matchup. He is giving Tech a 46 percent chance to win and lists the Red Raiders as 1-point underdogs.
| Team | National Rank |
| Oklahoma | 9 |
| Iowa State | 21 |
| Texas | 22 |
| Baylor | 25 |
| TCU | 28 |
| Oklahoma State | 29 |
| Kansas State | 43 |
| Texas Tech | 54 |
| West Virginia | 68 |
| Kansas | 95 |
Sagarin
| Team | National Rank | Sagarin |
| Oklahoma | 6 | 92.84 |
| Baylor | 16 | 85.17 |
| Iowa State | 18 | 84.07 |
| Oklahoma State | 21 | 83.02 |
| Texas | 22 | 82.94 |
| Kansas State | 28 | 78.87 |
| TCU | 31 | 78.51 |
| Texas Tech | 45 | 74.44 |
| West Virginia | 57 | 71.26 |
| Kansas | 88 | 64.74 |
Sagarin’s prediction is similar to FPI and McClintock, giving the Red Raiders a 44 percent chance to win and listed as two-point underdogs.
Las Vegas
The oddsmakers in Vegas have this as a close matchup but flipped in favor of Texas Tech a little bit. The Red Raiders opened as a 1-point favorite and have moved to 2.5-point favorites since. They are money line favorites of about -140, which are implied odds of 58 percent to win the game. That’s a pretty big gap from most of the analytical models, so we may see a favorable wager on Kansas State in my weekly analytics gambling post.