Football

Using Analytics to Inform Gambling Picks (Week 12)

Last Week’s Results

Ever since we profited 291 units in Week 6, we’ve had no luck. We’ve had a few bad weeks in a row, so I’m feeling like we’re due.

  • Last Week’s Results: -104.74 units (-$10,474 if betting with $100 units)
  • YTD: -192.82 units (-$19,202)

 

Biggest Movers in Vegas

Last Week: 6-2, YTD: 53-33-2

These have been on a roll for several weeks now. Here are the big movers this week.

  • Marshall opened -3 and is now -7 vs. Louisiana Tech
  • Cincinnati opened -9.5 and is now -14 vs. USF
  • The total for Ohio State-Rutgers opened at 55 and is now 61.5
  • The total for Air Force-Colorado opened at 57.5 and is now 63.5
  • Appalachian State opened -13 and is now -17 vs. Georgia State
  • Notre Dame opened -11 and is now -7 vs. Navy
  • Louisiana-Lafayette opened -24 and is now -28 vs. South Alabama
  • Middle Tennessee State opened -11 and is now -14.5 vs. Rice
  • Alabama opened -21 and is now -17.5 vs. Mississippi State

 

From The Hip

Last Week: 1-5, YTD: 19-24-1

Brutal! Here are this week’s picks (I suggest fading…):

  • Notre Dame and Navy UNDER 54.5
  • Georgia and Auburn OVER 41
  • Texas +7 vs. Iowa State
  • Kansas State -13.5 vs. West Virginia
  • Iowa -3 vs. Minnesota
  • Oklahoma -10.5 vs. Baylor
  • TCU -3 vs. Texas Tech (I’m sorry, it’s just an emotional hedge)

 

Week 12 Picks Using Analytics

  • Louisiana Tech +180 vs. Marshall, 2u
  • Stanford +325 vs. Washington State
  • Houston +300 vs. Memphis, 2u
  • USF +475 vs. Cincinnati
  • Texas +220 vs. Iowa State
  • West Virginia +450 vs. Kansas State
  • Temple +190 vs. Tulane
  • Syracuse +300 vs. Duke
  • Wyoming +180 vs. Utah State
  • Coastal Carolina +375 vs. Arkansas State
  • UCLA +900 vs. Utah
  • South Carolina +350 vs. Texas A&M
  • Notre Dame -300 vs. Navy, 2u
  • Auburn +125 vs. Georgia
  • UNLV +220 vs. Hawaii
  • Georgia Southern +550 vs. Appalachian State

I count 16 matchups and 19 total units being wagered on the games straight up. After pairing each of the 16 matchups as two-game parlays, that’s an additional 120 units of risk. Total, we’re risking 139 units this weekend.

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