Texas Tech rebounded with a much-needed win in Morgantown. It’s still a shaky road to bowl eligibility, but another win on Saturday would leave fans somewhat optimistic. The Kansas and Baylor losses (and to a lesser extent, Arizona) really sting now. It’s easy for fans to say “coulda, shoulda, woulda”, but Tech could pretty easily be 6-3 with a chance to do a little more damage down the stretch.

ESPN’s Football Power Index

Team	National Rank	FPI	Big 12 Title Odds (%)
Oklahoma	8	22.2	72.3
Iowa State	16	14.3	0
Baylor	21	11.8	23.3
Texas	23	10.1	2.5
Oklahoma State	24	9.7	1.7
Kansas State	30	8.9	0.3
TCU	33	7.6	0
Texas Tech	51	3.4	0
West Virginia	78	-3.8	0
Kansas	101	-8.6	0

 

The FPI score is the expected margin of victory against an average team on a neutral field. Western Michigan is the most average team in the country according to FPI, listed at 0.2.

Below are the odds of victory for Texas Tech against each remaining opponent.

Opponent	Texas Tech Win Probability (%)
TCU	45.6
Kansas State	42.6
@ Texas	24

 

Below are the odds that Texas Tech finishes with all possible season records. FPI currently projects Tech to finish 5.1-6.9.

Record	Probability (%)
4-8	24.5
5-7	44
6-6	26.3
7-5	5.2

 

SP+

SP+ measures the same thing as FPI; expected margin of victory against an average team on a neutral field. For reference, SP+ has Duke and Houston as the most average teams in the country with an SP+ of -0.2. SP+ gives Texas Tech a 39 percent chance to beat TCU and has the Red Raiders as 5-point underdogs.

Team	National Rank	SP+
Oklahoma	5	27.5
Baylor	18	17.3
Iowa State	21	16.4
Oklahoma State	29	12.1
Texas	31	12.1
TCU	32	11.7
Kansas State	37	9.3
Texas Tech	47	4.3
Kansas	94	-7.3
West Virginia	96	-7.4

 

Adam McClintock

Adam McClintock ranks all 130 FBS teams every week and predicts the margin of victory for each FBS vs. FBS matchup. He is almost identical to SP+, giving Tech a 40 percent chance to win and lists the Red Raiders as 5-point underdogs.

Team	National Rank
Oklahoma	7
Iowa State	19
Texas	20
TCU	27
Baylor	28
Oklahoma State	29
Kansas State	39
Texas Tech	56
West Virginia	71
Kansas	97

 

Sagarin

Team	National Rank	Sagarin
Oklahoma	9	91.79
Baylor	14	86.28
Iowa State	19	83.61
Oklahoma State	20	83.45
Texas	21	83.22
Kansas State	23	81.83
TCU	31	78.37
Texas Tech	42	74.74
West Virginia	72	68.06
Kansas	89	63.91

 

Sagarin’s prediction is closer to FPI, giving Texas Tech a 46 percent chance to win and lists them as slight 1 or 2-point underdogs.

 

Las Vegas

The oddsmakers in Vegas are pretty close to SP+ and McClintock on this one. TCU is a 3-point favorite and is favored as -160 (bet $160 to win $100) on the money line, which are implied odds of 61.5 percent.