Well, the easier part of the schedule was supposed to come for Texas Tech after they made it through the gauntlet of Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Baylor, and Iowa State. While Texas Tech’s loss to Kansas was bad enough, Kansas State was impressive in a win over Oklahoma, and TCU looked good beating Texas. The path to a bowl game looks pretty daunting. Here’s what the analytics say about Texas Tech coming off a bye week and heading into Morgantown.
ESPN’s Football Power Index
| Team | National Rank | FPI | Big 12 Title Odds (%) |
| Oklahoma | 7 | 22.7 | 66.8 |
| Iowa State | 19 | 13.3 | 3.9 |
| Baylor | 21 | 11.1 | 21.9 |
| Texas | 25 | 10.2 | 3.2 |
| Oklahoma State | 27 | 9.4 | 1.6 |
| Kansas State | 30 | 8.6 | 2.4 |
| TCU | 33 | 8.2 | 0.3 |
| Texas Tech | 58 | 1.8 | 0 |
| West Virginia | 74 | -2.4 | 0 |
| Kansas | 98 | -8.3 | 0 |
The FPI score is the expected margin of victory against an average team on a neutral field. Boston College and Virginia Tech are the most average teams in the country with an FPI of 0.1 and -0.1, respectively.
Below are the odds of victory for Texas Tech against each remaining opponent.
| Opponent |
Texas Tech Win Probability (%)
|
| @ West Virginia | 54.1 |
| TCU | 39.1 |
| Kansas State | 38.5 |
| @ Texas | 20.3 |
Below are the odds that Texas Tech finishes with all possible season records. FPI currently projects Tech to finish 4.5-7.5. Texas Tech’s bowl chances are down to 15.7 percent according to these figures.
| Record | Probability (%) |
| 3-9 | 14.7 |
| 4-8 | 36.2 |
| 5-7 | 33.3 |
| 6-6 | 13.6 |
| 7-5 | 2.1 |
SP+
SP+ measures the same thing as FPI; expected margin of victory against an average team on a neutral field. For reference, SP+ has FAU and Maryland at 0.2 and Virginia Tech at -0.2 as the most average teams in the country.
| Team | National Rank | SP+ |
| Oklahoma | 4 | 28.8 |
| Baylor | 15 | 19.3 |
| Iowa State | 18 | 17.5 |
| Oklahoma State | 26 | 12.3 |
| TCU | 30 | 11.1 |
| Kansas State | 32 | 10.8 |
| Texas | 33 | 10.2 |
| Texas Tech | 47 | 4.6 |
| West Virginia | 88 | -4.9 |
| Kansas | 95 | -5.6 |
Adam McClintock
Adam McClintock ranks all 130 FBS teams every week and predicts the margin of victory for each FBS vs. FBS matchup. He gives Texas Tech a 46 percent chance to beat West Virginia and has the Red Raiders pegged as 1.5-point underdogs.
| Team | National Rank |
| Oklahoma | 7 |
| Texas | 20 |
| Iowa State | 22 |
| TCU | 23 |
| Oklahoma State | 28 |
| Baylor | 29 |
| Kansas State | 38 |
| West Virginia | 60 |
| Texas Tech | 63 |
| Kansas | 98 |
Sagarin
| Team | National Rank | Sagarin |
| Oklahoma | 6 | 93.13 |
| Baylor | 17 | 84.07 |
| Texas | 20 | 83.13 |
| Iowa State | 21 | 83.1 |
| Oklahoma State | 22 | 82.85 |
| Kansas State | 24 | 81.35 |
| TCU | 29 | 79.01 |
| Texas Tech | 55 | 72.25 |
| West Virginia | 61 | 71.29 |
| Kansas | 90 | 63.96 |
Sagarin’s prediction for Texas Tech-West Virginia is identical to McClintock’s; Texas Tech has a 46 percent chance to win and is a 1.5-point underdog.
Las Vegas
The oddsmakers in Vegas also have this game as a toss-up for all intents and purposes. Tech opened at -2 or -1.5 depending on the book, and is at -1.5 just about everywhere. So the analytics slightly favor West Virginia for the most part while Vegas gives Tech the nod.