Football

Using Analytics to Inform Gambling Picks (Week 7)

Last Week’s Results

Boom! Week 6 was our best week yet, and puts us back in the green on the year. On the 22 units we wagered straight up, we collected 37.4 units for a 15.4 unit profit, a healthy 70 percent rate of return. But it gets better! Pairing the 20 matchups identified as two-game parlays, we wagered an additional 190 units and collected 465.5 units, a profit of 275.5 units.

Total, we profited 290.9 units this week thanks to FPI hitting on five of six picks (3-0 with underdogs) and McClintock’s model going 8-8 with all underdog picks that included nice money lines such as Virginia Tech +425 and Stanford +550. Not only did we get to parlay each of those wins with 10 other wins, but parlayed together they paid out $3,413 on a $100 bet. Fun stuff!

  • Week 6 Results: +290.9 units (+$29,090 if betting with $100 units)
  • YTD: +222.73 units (+$22,273)

 

Week 6 Bad Beats

The Air Force/Navy total was 53. With the score Navy 28, Air Force 25 (53) and one second left on the clock, Air Force tried to score from their own 27-yard line by doing a bunch of laterals on the game’s final play. Unfortunately for under bettors, a lateral wound up on the ground, which Navy scooped and scored. Granted, under bettors would have only pushed, but that’s way better than losing.

The Maryland/Rutgers total was 55.5. At the end of the third quarter, Maryland led 48-7 (55). Not another point was scored and the game included three missed field goals. Ouch for over bettors.

 

Biggest Movers in Vegas

Week 6: 8-5, YTD: 26-22-2

Nothing earth-shattering so far this year with this system. The 26-22-2 record to date would leave a bettor up by about 1.66 units assuming each winning bet paid out -110. You could certainly do a lot worse, but it’s a minimal return for having wagered 50 units on these games. Here are this week’s biggest movers in Vegas.

  • Appalachian State opened -2 and is now +2.5 vs. Louisiana
  • Texas State opened -1 and is now +3.5 vs. Louisiana-Monroe
  • Colorado State opened -7 and is now -3.5 vs. New Mexico
  • Michigan opened -19 and is now -22.5 vs. Illinois
  • Michigan and Illinois total opened at 56 and is now 49
  • Maryland and Purdue’s total opened at 61 and is now 53.5
  • Missouri opened -8.5 and is now -12 vs. Ole Miss
  • Kent State opened -10 and is now -14.5 vs. Akron
  • Tulane opened -30 and is now -34 vs. UConn
  • Nevada opened -7.5 and is now -2 vs. San Jose State
  • UAB opened -8.5 and is now -12 vs. UTSA
  • FIU opened -2 and is now -5.5 vs. Charlotte

 

From The Hip

Week 6: 0-4, YTD: 13-11-1

Ouch! My good season so far was wiped out in just one week. Here are this week’s picks from the hip:

  • Oklahoma -10.5 vs. Texas
  • Alabama -16.5 vs. Texas A&M
  • Penn State -3.5 vs. Iowa
  • Texas Tech and Baylor OVER 58

 

Week 7 Picks Using Analytics

  • Louisiana -110 vs. Appalachian State
  • Kentucky -260 vs. Arkansas
  • San Diego State -185 vs. Wyoming
  • FIU -215 vs. Charlotte
  • Louisville +195 vs. Wake
  • Houston +245 vs. Cincinnati, 2u
  • MTSU +330 vs. FAU
  • Akron +390 vs. Kent State
  • Florida +400 vs. LSU
  • Nebraska +235 vs. Minnesota
  • West Virginia +320 vs. Iowa State
  • Tennessee +210 vs. Mississippi State
  • USF +195 vs. BYU
  • Georgia Tech +700 vs. Duke
  • Navy -105 vs. Tulsa
  • Texas Tech +325 vs. Baylor (“So you’re tellin’ me there’s a chance?!)
  • Washington State -105 vs. Arizona State
  • Temple +200 vs. Memphis
  • Western Kentucky +170 vs. Army
  • Michigan State +320 vs. Wisconsin
  • UNLV +450 vs. Vanderbilt
  • Ole Miss +350 vs. Missouri
  • Purdue +155 vs. Maryland
  • Old Dominion +500 vs. Marshall
  • New Mexico State +320 vs. Central Michigan
  • UTSA +350 vs. UAB
  • San Jose State +105 vs. Nevada
  • Texas State +140 vs. UL Monroe

I count 28 matchups and 29 units being wagered straight up. Pairing the 28 matchups as two-game parlays, that’s an additional 378 units being wagered for a staggering total of 407 units being wagered. That’s a lot of risk, and if this week goes south our season total could tank in a hurry. At the end of the day, if Texas Tech +325 cashes and the other 27 matchups all fail to cash, I’ll still be happy.

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