Texas Tech has a bye this week, but I still wanted to let everyone know how the analytical models view the Red Raiders heading into Week 4. Please note that I don’t think these models take into account Alan Bowman’s injury, so the outlook is probably worse than what is illustrated below.
ESPN’s Football Power Index
| Team | National Rank | FPI | Big 12 Title Odds |
| Oklahoma | 7 | 21.9 | 69.6 |
| Texas | 19 | 12.2 | 9.9 |
| Oklahoma State | 25 | 11.2 | 7.6 |
| Baylor | 28 | 10 | 5.5 |
| Kansas State | 29 | 9.3 | 4.3 |
| TCU | 35 | 6.7 | 1.3 |
| Iowa State | 36 | 6.6 | 1.4 |
| Texas Tech | 46 | 3.3 | 0.4 |
| West Virginia | 65 | -0.2 | 0 |
| Kansas | 99 | -9 | 0 |
The FPI score is the expected margin of victory against an average team on a neutral field. Fresno State is currently the most average team in the country according to FPI, with a perfectly average FPI of 0.0.
Texas Tech’s FPI of 3.3 is their lowest FPI so far this season, and is 4.7 below (largest deficit this season) the Big 12 median of 8 (highest Big 12 median this season). Below are Texas Tech’s odds according to FPI for their remaining schedule.
| Opponent |
Texas Tech Win Probability (%)
|
| @ Oklahoma | 7 |
| Oklahoma State | 34.9 |
| @ Baylor | 24.1 |
| Iowa State | 49.8 |
| @ Kansas | 75.5 |
| @ West Virginia | 52 |
| TCU | 48 |
| Kansas State | 40.9 |
| @ Texas | 19.5 |
Texas Tech’s average remaining win percentage is 39 percent. Below are the odds that Texas Tech finishes with any given season record that has more than a one percent chance of happening. FPI lists Texas Tech’s projected record as 5.5-6.5, which squares with the data below.
| Record | Probability (%) |
| 2-10 | 1.2 |
| 3-9 | 6.7 |
| 4-8 | 17.1 |
| 5-7 | 25.6 |
| 6-6 | 24.7 |
| 7-5 | 15.8 |
| 8-4 | 6.8 |
| 9-3 | 1.9 |
SP+
SP+ measures the same thing as FPI; expected margin of victory against an average team on a neutral field. For reference, SP+ has Northwestern and Vanderbilt as the most average teams in the country with a perfectly average SP+ of 0.0. Texas Tech’s SP+ dipped to 6.2 this week, its lowest mark since preseason, which is 3.9 points (largest deficit this season) below the Big 12 median of 10.1 (highest Big 12 median this season).
| Team | National Rank | SP+ |
| Oklahoma | 6 | 25.8 |
| Oklahoma State | 20 | 14.1 |
| TCU | 25 | 12.4 |
| Texas | 28 | 12 |
| Baylor | 29 | 11.5 |
| Iowa State | 35 | 8.6 |
| Texas Tech | 44 | 6.2 |
| Kansas State | 49 | 5 |
| West Virginia | 56 | 3.3 |
| Kansas | 101 | -10 |
Adam McClintock
Adam McClintock ranks all 130 FBS teams every week and predicts the margin of victory for each FBS vs. FBS matchup. Below is how he ranks the Big 12.
| Team | National Rank |
| Oklahoma | 5 |
| TCU | 19 |
| Texas | 21 |
| Oklahoma State | 28 |
| Baylor | 33 |
| Iowa State | 45 |
| West Virginia | 46 |
| Kansas State | 49 |
| Texas Tech | 64 |
| Kansas | 96 |
Sagarin
Sagarin ratings seem a little bit off the wall to me, but it’s another analytical model worth including here. I want very much to believe Sagarin about Texas Tech and want Sagarin to be wrong about Baylor.
| Team | National Rank | Sagarin |
| Oklahoma | 7 | 92.66 |
| Texas | 12 | 87.58 |
| Oklahoma State | 14 | 86.34 |
| Kansas State | 21 | 82.66 |
| TCU | 22 | 82.4 |
| Baylor | 33 | 78.02 |
| Texas Tech | 46 | 74.29 |
| West Virginia | 47 | 73.71 |
| Iowa State | 51 | 72.81 |
| Kansas | 95 | 63.26 |