Using Analytics to Inform Gambling Picks (Week 3)

Last Week’s Results

Simply stated, FPI and Adam McClintock did not do us any favors in identifying good matchups last weekend. We identified 20 games and wagered 21 units on individual games and only collected 12.2 of those units. And to make matters worse, we wagered 190 units in two-game parlays. On those bets, we only collected 60.41 units. Total, we wagered 211 units and lost 138.39 units.

This was a terrible week. Let’s hope these models are becoming more accurate now that some games have been played. I promise when I did this last year there were at least a handful of good weeks (but I didn’t track it all year like I am this season).

Last Week: -138.39 units (-$13,839 if betting with $100 units)
YTD: -152.94 units (-$15,294)

Week 1 Bad Beats

Clemson was favored by 16.5 against Texas A&M. With the game well in hand in the fourth quarter, Texas A&M drove down the field while trailing 24-3. With just a few seconds left in the game, the Aggies punched it into the end zone for an otherwise meaningless touchdown. Clemson wins 24-10 but fails to cover.

Michigan and Army’s point total was set at 47 on Saturday. It headed to overtime tied 14-14 which is always dangerous for the under. Michigan led 24-21 in the second overtime period and all Army needed to extend the game was a field goal. Instead, they fumbled on third down and the Wolverines recovered. A field goal would have sent the total to 48.

Is Texas Tech a Good Bet This Week?

FPI and Adam McClintock have the Texas Tech-Arizona game as a toss up. The line in Vegas is pretty close too, so there’s not much of a betting advantage according to those models. Sagarin, however, is pretty favorable for Tech. The money line and spread would be good bets for Tech according to Sagarin ratings.

Biggest Movers in Vegas

Last Week: 2-4-1, YTD: 7-7-1

Going against the money in Vegas didn’t work out was well in Week 2 as it did in Week 1. Here are this week’s big movers:

Alabama opened -21 vs. South Carolina and is now -26
USC and BYU’s point total opened at 48.5 and is now 55.5
Arkansas opened -13.5 vs. Colorado State and is now -9.5
North Texas and Cal’s point total opened at 57.5 and is now 50.5
Louisiana Tech opened -7.5 vs. Bowling Green and is now -10.5
Iowa State opened -1 vs. Iowa and is now +2.5
UMass and Charlotte’s point total opened at 61 and is now 68.5
Georgia State and Western Michigan’s point total opened at 63 and is now 69
Duke opened -3 vs. Middle Tennessee State and is now -6.5
Purdue opened -1.5 vs. TCU and is now +2.5
Oklahoma and UCLA’s point total opened at 66.5 and is now 73.5
Oklahoma opened -17 vs. UCLA and is now -23

From The Hip

Last Week: 2-3, YTD: 6-5

This week’s picks:

Texas Tech and Arizona UNDER 76
Ohio State -16.5 vs. Indiana
NC State -6.5 vs. West Virginia
UCF -7.5 vs. Stanford
Oklahoma State -14 vs. Tulsa
Arizona State +14 vs. Michigan State

Week 3 Picks Using Analytics

Yet again, there are some picks here that are tough to stomach. There were also games where FPI and McClintock totally disagreed on whether the favorite or underdog was a high value bet.

Bowling Green +320 vs. Louisiana Tech
UCLA +1100 vs. Oklahoma, 2u (I hate this pick)
North Carolina +130 vs. Wake Forest, 2u
Liberty +175 vs. Buffalo, 2u
Washington State -340 vs. Houston
UMass +700 vs. Charlotte
Temple +225 vs. Maryland
Florida State +230 vs. Virginia
Kansas +1000 vs. Boston College
North Texas +450 vs. Cal
Georgia Southern +500 vs. Minnesota
UTSA +600 vs. Army (hate this)
Colorado State +275 vs. Arkansas
Texas State +600 vs. SMU (hate this)
Middle Tennessee State +210 vs. Duke
West Virginia +210 vs. NC State

Alright super computers, treat us better than you did the last couple of weeks.

I count 16 matchups and 19 units being wagered.