This should be a fun week for a good chunk of the Big 12. Texas Tech, TCU, Kansas State, Kansas, Iowa State, and Oklahoma all play their first Power 5 competition of the season on Saturday. Playing some better competition should hopefully give us some insight into how the conference stacks up. Here’s what the analytics say heading into Week 3.
ESPN’s Football Power Index
|Team||National Rank||FPI||Big 12 Title Odds|
The FPI score is the expected margin of victory against an average team on a neutral field. Duke is currently the most average team in the country according to FPI, with a perfectly average FPI of 0.0.
Arizona is ranked 60th nationally in FPI at 1.2, which would place them third from the bottom in the Big 12. Texas Tech’s FPI of 5.4 is their highest FPI so far this season, and is 1.4 below the Big 12 median. Below are Texas Tech’s odds according to FPI for their remaining schedule, including the tilt with Arizona this Saturday.
Texas Tech Win Probability (%)
|@ West Virginia||69.3|
Texas Tech’s average remaining win percentage is just a hair over 50 percent, which makes for a nice and even distribution of their possible records at the end of the season. Below are the odds that Texas Tech finishes with any given season record that has more than a one percent chance of happening.
SP+ measures the same thing as FPI; expected margin of victory against an average team on a neutral field. For reference, SP+ has Vanderbilt as the most average team in the country with a perfectly average SP+ of 0.0. Arizona’s SP+ is 1.8, good for 63rd nationally. Texas Tech’s SP+ dipped to 8.5 this week, 1.4 points below the Big 12 median.
Adam McClintock ranks all 130 FBS teams every week and predicts the margin of victory for each FBS vs. FBS matchup. Below is how he ranks the Big 12. He ranks Arizona 63rd nationally and favors the Red Raiders to win on Saturday by 0.57 points.
Sagarin ratings seem a little bit off the wall to me, but it’s another analytical model worth including here. I want very much to believe Sagarin about Texas Tech and want Sagarin to be wrong about Baylor.
Sagarin pegs Texas Tech as an 83 percent favorite to beat Arizona on Saturday. Arizona ranks 74th nationally with a Sagarin rating of 68.2.