Yesterday was the day of upsets. If you count the lines prior to game time, there were three upsets over the weekend. Luckily, Texas Tech was on the right side of them. Let’s quickly recap the games from last week
- Oklahoma State 85, West Virginia 77 – Don’t look now, but Oklahoma State is now 2-2 in the conference after a nearly double digit win over West Virginia. They were impressive, as they only had five turnovers the whole game, along with 47 FG% and 3FG%. Former Tech target Isaac Likekele (23 Pts, 7-10 FG, 9 Reb) had a breakout game in the Big 12. West Virginia is now a disaster at 0-4. No postseason play for them likely.
- Kansas State 58, Iowa State 57 – I said on Friday this game was the easiest to pick, choosing Iowa State. Oops. Although Dean Wade returning was huge, still a blooper by me. Kansas State took a big lead early before Iowa State came back and took a lead back. But Barry Brown Jr (23 Pts, 9-20 FG, 4 Ast) is an All-Big 12 first teamer this year, and had a huge basket with 5 seconds left to win the game.
- Texas Tech 68, Texas 62 – I’m more than happy to be wrong both overall and against the spread about this one. This game was close throughout, with the teams exchanging leads until the last quarter of the game. In the final 10 minutes, Matt Mooney (22 Pts, 8-10 FG) and Davide Moretti (13 Pts, 4-9 FG) took over and stepped up big time. A road win is always a good win.
- Oklahoma 76, TCU 74 – With a win over Oklahoma already and two loses, we probably wanted the Horn Frogs to lose. Well, TCU was winning most of the contest, by Kristian Doolittle (24 Pts, 9-12 FG, 10 Reb) hit a short jumper with three seconds left to give the Sooners the win. Doolittle was the best player this game, but let’s not ignore what Kouat Noi (30 Pts, 10-14 FG, 8-12 3FG) of TCU did.
- Kansas 73, Baylor 68 – This game was basically just runs. Kansas got out to a 18- start, then Baylor cut it to 22-20, but then the Jayhawks go it to 64-41 before the Bears cut to 72-68 before running out of time. Lagerald Vick (18 Pts, 6-10 FG, 6-8 3FG) finally looked like the player he was during the non-conference slate. Unfortunately for Baylor, it looks like their best player Tristan Clark is out for the season.
Here is my record overall and against the spread after the fourth slate of games (19 games total):
Overall: 15-4 (2-3 last game); Against The Spread: 8-11 (1-4 last game).
I’m just getting worse and worse at this. I can’t even blame this on late free throw of garbage time, as a majority of these lines I was wrong by more than 10 points. Not a good week at all for my betting. At least my overall record is respectable. Here’s the games this week.
Big 12 Schedule: Game Five
Baylor (9-6, 1-2) at Oklahoma State (8-8, 2-2)
| Line | Watch | Interest |
|---|---|---|
| OSU -4, O/U 134 | 1/14, 8 p.m., ESPNU | * |
Match-up: Similar to Oklahoma State at West Virginia game last week, this game brings little to no interest for me. Although I will give these teams credit, they are doing better than I though they would be.
With Tristan Clark out for the season, this is likely going to be a three point affair I think. That’s what Baylor did a lot last game against Kansas without him. Thomas Dziagwa and Lindsey Waters III can shoot it from anywhere, so Baylor will need to close out their shooting. Same for Baylor with Makai Mason and Jared Butler.
Prediction: I’ll pick Oklahoma State to win and cover. Their three point shooting is lethal, Baylor is hurting and the Cowboys are at home.
West Virginia (8-8, 0-4) at TCU (12-3, 1-2)
| Line | Watch | Interest |
|---|---|---|
| TCU -6.5, O/U 146 | 1/15, 6 p.m., ESPNU | * |
Match-up: Imagine looking at Big 12 preseason poll and finding out that the No. 3 and No. 4 team in the poll would be a combined 1-6 at this point of the season. West Virginia players have developed like most expected, and TCU hasn’t had as much contribution from freshmen, some of whom are already transferring.
Anyway, TCU shouldn’t have a problem in this game. Sure, Derek Culver is looking like a future star in the league after his first few games, but nothing else is going right for West Virginia. TCU distributes the ball well, while the Mountaineers haven’t forced turnovers like years past. In fact, TCU is first in Big 12 play in assists and West Virginia is last.
Prediction: TCU wins and covers this one. Rough couple of games for the Horn Frogs but they have the prefect game to get back on track.
Kansas State (12-4, 2-2) at No. 20 Oklahoma (13-3, 2-2)
| Line | Watch | Interest |
|---|---|---|
| OU -6.5, O/U 129.5 | 1/16, 6 p.m., ESPN2 | **** |
Match-up: This game looked like it was going to be another dud just a few days prior. However, with Dean Wade returning and the Wildcats stringing together a couple wins, this game has some appeal to it. For those at home, here’s your pregame for the real game.
As far as stats go, these teams are pretty far apart. The only extreme or similarity I saw was they both don’t have very good field goal percentages so far in Big 12 play. I’m interested to see the Dean Wade vs Brady Manek match-up, considering Manek has a lot of simulates to Wade I think. Also Christian James vs Barry Brown Jr, two seniors who have seen improvement throughout their college careers.
Prediction: I’m going with Kansas State for the upset. The Wildcats have been in a good groove since halftime of the West Virginia game, and having Stokes completely healthy and Dean Wade back has really been key to their success lately.
Texas (10-6, 2-2) at No. 7 Kansas (14-2, 3-1)
| Line | Watch | Interest |
|---|---|---|
| KU -8.5, O/U 138.5 | 1/14, 8 p.m., ESPN | **** |
Match-up: I was going to make this five star interest to me, but who knows which Texas will show up. Will it be the one who upset North Carolina and nearly did so to Michigan State? Or will it be the one who lost to VCU and Providence? If the first is true, we’ll have ourselves a good ole game.
Kansas has the No. 3 offense in Big 12 play so far, while Texas boasts the No. 1 offense. They are also No. 1 and No. 3 respectively in field goal percentage in conference play. Dedric Lawson is always a problem, so I’m curious if Jaxon Hayes can guard him well. The key to Texas has been Kerwin Roach, but Marcus Garrett is a great defender thus far and will likely be on him.
Prediction: I’ll say Kansas wins and covers. After having to prep for the Red Raiders and the physical play in that match, they have to travel to Lawrence and face them just two days later. Don’t like that sequence for the Horns.
Iowa State (12-4, 2-2) at No. 8 Texas Tech (15-1, 4-0)
| Line | Watch | Interest |
|---|---|---|
| TTU -5, O/U 132.5 | 1/16, 8 p.m., ESPNU | ***** |
Match-up: This is the third week in a row where Texas Tech has the best match-up of the week. This time, they host Iowa State, whom after starting 2-0 including a win over Kansas has had two disappointing losses. And if this match is anything like the ones in the past, we’re in for a heck of game.
Over the past four years, the Red Raiders are 3-5 against the Cyclones with five the match-ups basically coming down to the end. That also includes an overtime win by both teams. We also get a match-up of two likely All-Big 12 first team players in Jarrett Culver (18.7 ppg, 56 FG%, 4.1 apg, 6.4 rpg) and Marial Shaylock (19.4 ppg, 52 FG%, 5.4 rpg). They are two of the top three scorers in the Big 12 this season.
As far as comparisons, they are the top two teams in turnover margin, both are near the top in assists, and Iowa State is first in steals while Texas Tech is second in blocks. The key will be taking care of the basketball, since Iowa State loves to force turnovers. Also, close in on defenders, as Iowa State loves to pass the rock around.
Prediction: I bet this line will be a little close, unless the hype around Iowa State has died down a little bit. Either way, I have Texas Tech winning. The Red Raiders have only lost to the Cyclones at home once in the past four years, and the loss came in an overtime loss when Tech didn’t get a made three pointer off in time.
Iowa State has a lot of athletes, but so did Texas and the Red Raiders did fine. In fact, they don’t have a big man presence like Hayes, so Tech doesn’t have to worry as much about pick and rolls. This will be close, but the Red Raiders advance to 5-0 in the Big 12.
Big 12 Power Rankings: Week 3
- 10. West Virginia – *INSERT HUGGINS QUOTE ABOUT PLAYERS NOT LOVING BASKETBALL*
- 9. Oklahoma State – The Cowboys may have had a tough time in non-conference, but have done well the past week, winning at home against Texas and at West Virginia. Almost moved them to eighth.
- 8. Baylor – The Bears had an upset of Iowa State, which was a good win, but then had some bad luck. They lost Tristan Clark for the year and fell to Kansas. Losing Clark is huge.
- 7. Texas – The Longhorns started off conference play 2-0, but then fell at Oklahoma State and home against Texas Tech to fall to 2-2. This team has talent, but just plays too inconsistent.
- 6. TCU – Much like the team prior, the Horn Frogs had a bad week. Although their schedule was a tad tougher, as they traveled to Kansas before playing the Sooners in Oklahoma.
- 5. Kansas State – The Wildcats got a lot of good news this week. Sure they had their biggest comeback in program history and they won a close game in Ames, but Dean Wade, the preseason Big-12 player of the year, finally returned.
- 4. Oklahoma – The Sooners have had a rough start to Big 12 play. They opened in Lawrence, had an easy game at home against Oklahoma State, but then traveled to Lubbock before facing TCU at home. They are better than their .500 Big 12 record.
- 3. Iowa State – I debated swapping Oklahoma and Iowa State. The Cyclones had a huge win over Kansas, but seemed to be so high from that win that they loss at Baylor and home against Kansas State. Not the way they envisioned it.
- 2. Kansas – I also debated the first two teams for a while. Kansas won both their games last week, but I expect more for some reason. Yes, Texas Tech has had close wins, but they’re a defensive team and that’s just how they role.
- 1. Texas Tech – Undefeated in Big 12 play. First win in Austin as a member of the Big 12. Filling some notable holes (I’ll go more in depth tomorrow). Tech is the best team in the Big 12 at moment. Could definitely change next week.