Football Study Hall
Please check out Bill Connelly’s statistical profiles for a full detail of each team.
Texas Tech Offense vs. Iowa State Defense
The Iowa State defense is no joke, they maybe don’t check all of the boxes, but in Rushing S&P+, they are 15th and in passing they are 16th. That’s flipping salty. Oh, and they don’t give up huge rushing plays, they’re 9th in rushing marginal explosiveness, but they are susceptible to giving up big passing plays, 91st in passing marginal explosiveness, and they are also 89th in passing completion rate. Oh, and the offensive line is going to have their work cut out for them, as they are 6th in sack rate.
Texas Tech Defense vs. Iowa State Offense
I would have thought that the Iowa State rushing offense was better, but they are only 99th in Rushing S&P+. I know that Purdy can somewhat do it all, so maybe the stats haven’t caught up with what he’s done (i.e. just not enough of a sample size). Statistically, Iowa State is very good at passing, 38th in Passing S&P+, so this really somewhat sets up as a bad match-up for Texas Tech, as Iowa State is good at things that the Texas Tech defense isn’t great at. I would maybe add that Texas Tech could take advantage of getting Iowa State in some third down situations, as they are 101st in third and long, 82nd in third and medium, and 81st and third and short. That’s probably one of the big keys right there.
Other Stats
College Football Analytics: Texas Tech has moved up 4 spots to 20th overall, while Iowa State is 34th. And under the predictions page, Texas Tech has a 51.5% chance of winning this game despite the 14 spot difference, a 5 or so point win for Texas Tech. It’s going to be really close I think. And CFA has Texas Tech winning every game except for the Oklahoma game, which the numbers are predicting a 10 point loss. Additionally, the final three games are no longer considered to be toss-up games as they all are above a 55% chance of winning (this means nothing really, this is just for your information).
FEI College Football Ratings: Texas Tech is ranked 21st overall, while Iowa State is 19th. So this is the lone advanced stat that has Iowa State as a better team, which is interesting.
ESPN’s Football Power Index: Texas Tech moved up 3 spots to 20th overall with Iowa State 37th overall. The FPI predictions think Texas Tech only has a 49.5% chance of beating Iowa State (again, this is in the toss-up range) and also losing the Oklahoma game while winning out.
