Let’s Talk About Stats: Texas Tech vs. TCU

It’s our stats.

Football Study Hall

Please check out Bill Connelly’s statistical profiles for a full detail of each team.

And I’m writing the Football Study Hall portion on Friday morning. All of the other stats are as of Tuesday night. And FSH has Texas Tech with a 48% chance of winning on Thursday night.

Texas Tech Offense vs. TCU Defense

The Texas Tech offense is really sort of settling in from the standpoint that they are a very effective offense, but not explosive. I wonder how much this will change with Jett Duffey at the helm as I’d expect there to be more big chunks of yards than with Alan Bowman. I’m a bit surprised that TCU has a top 20 defense overall, but 4 of the 5 factors aren’t necessarily elite, particularly at allowing teams to score. I’m guessing that they’re playing terrific defense between the 40, but outside of that, teams are scoring at a decent rate. I bet that’s driving Patterson crazy.

Texas Tech Defense vs. TCU Offense

The Texas Tech defense is also settling in as well as a defense around the 100’s. I wonder too how much they’ll be able to increase their standing (or decrease the ranking as that would be better for this chart’s purposes). We somewhat have to emphasize that the turnovers from last year, where Texas Tech was 13th overall with a positive margin of 11 (25 turnovers gained and 12 turnovers lost) is probably not going to happen this year as the current margin is 0 (7 gained and 7 lost). Creating turnovers is not a defensive plan. It can sometimes be luck or good defense or offenses pressing, but “turning the ball over” is not a plan.

Other Stats

College Football Analytics: Has Texas Tech 25th overall and TCU is 39th overall. CFA has Texas Tech with a 52.0% chance of winning, which again probably means this is a toss-up game for both teams.

FEI College Football Ratings: This has Texas Tech 30th overall, with TCU 8 spots behind the Red Raiders at 31st overall.

ESPN’s Football Power Index: This has Texas Tech at 22nd overall, one spot behind Oklahoma State, while TCU is 36th overall. As of right now FPI gives Texas Tech a 49.5% chance of winning this game, so it is essentially a toss-up game.

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