Like everyone else with a pulse beating for Texas Tech, I felt the struggle of watching the Red Raiders drop their season opener to Ole Miss. There is a lot to unpack from that game ranging from abhorrent special teams play to frustrating no-calls by officials. For me, it was the kind of game I walked out of the living room thinking “man, just eliminate a few big plays and Tech could have limped to a win instead of riding a Slip ‘N Slide to a loss.”
Now I’m fully aware it doesn’t work that way. There’s no way to test for variables that didn’t occur; no way to identify what could have been or what may happen in the future. Well, there is this one guy – but he disappeared recently so he may not be much help.
Too soon?
Anyway, in this post, I’m going to outline the big plays of the Ole Miss game. I’m not trying to say there’s an automatic win if you remove play x, play y, and play z. However in the future, if Texas Tech can manage big plays more appropriately they will have a much higher chance of being successful. I know, I’m not really dropping knowledge bombs here. But despite this feeling like common sense, I think seeing it laid out provides some new perspective as to the importance of these plays and the opportunities the Red Raiders have to improve within this season. As an added bonus there may be a little more understanding of the game hidden here with an almost predictive nature.
What is a big play?
Some of you are probably familiar with Bill Connelly and The Five Factors, but that’s not really where I’m going with today’s post. While Explosiveness (IsoPPP) does measure the impact of big plays on the game, I’m more interested in looking at a game and trying to ascertain the way those big plays flow during a possession. How do they come and go? Are they counteracted by other big plays? Are there outcome trends connected to big plays?
Kliff described some of the big plays and mental mistakes in his Sept 2 media availability.
For our purposes, I’ll be identifying the following as big plays:
OFFENSE |
DEFENSE |
OTHER |
|---|---|---|
| Passes Over 16 Yards | Tackles For Loss | Player Ejections |
| Rushes Over 12 Yards | Quarterback Hurries/Sacks | Player Injuries |
| Any Unearned Yardage | Any Loss of Yardage | Kick Returns Over 15 Yards |
| Any Unearned 1st Down | Exceptional Play/No Flag | Starting Field Position |
Throughout the game, every scoring drive for both teams included something to give them an advantage in reaching the objective of scoring. Maybe it was a short field to start an offensive drive, a personal foul that converted a 3rd or 4th down, or a 30-yard play. What I also noticed, was that anytime success less than a touchdown was experienced (field goal, punt, turnover on downs) there was one or more opposing big plays to counteract it.
First Quarter
The chart below illustrates the big plays in each possession of the first quarter, with the final drive crossing into the second quarter. Boxes in blue are positives for Ole Miss, boxes in red are positives for Texas Tech. I didn’t want to muddy the water, but there’s an argument to be made for a field goal to be a positive for both teams.
DRIVE OUTCOME |
OFFENSE BIG PLAYS |
DEFENSE BIG PLAYS |
OTHER BIG PLAYS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ole Miss TD #1 | 54 Yard TD Pass Defender Fell |
Short Kickoff to 15 16 Yard Kickoff Return Sets Up Short Field |
|
| Texas Tech TD #1 | 13 Yard QB Rush 31 Yard Pass 15 Yard TD Run |
-1 Yard Rush | |
| Ole Miss TD #2 | 94 Yard Kickoff Returned for a TD |
||
| Texas Tech Punt #1 | Strong Defensive Secondary Forces Three & Out |
24 Yard Kickoff Return | |
| Ole Miss FG #1 | 19 Yard Pass 15 Yard Personal Foul |
QB Sack QB Hurry QB Hurry |
Targeting Ejection |
| Texas Tech Punt #2 | McClane Carter Injury | ||
| Ole Miss TD #3 | 39 Yard Rush for TD on 4th & 1 | 33 Yard Punt Sets Up Short Field | |
| Texas Tech FG #1 | -1 Yard Rush |
49 Yard Kickoff Return |
As you can see, the team with the big play advantage in each possession enjoys a favorable outcome. When big plays are equal in opponent’s territory, the offensive possession results in a field goal. A recurring theme of the breakdown of this game has been that Texas Tech had a disastrous first quarter, this is a confirmation of that assertion from the standpoint of big plays. It is difficult to measure momentum, but through this chart, we can see the swing in momentum from big play to big play as the Red Raiders struggle to continue producing or to keep up with Ole Miss’s production.
Second Quarter
In the second quarter, we see an addition to the storyline of a drive with even big plays for both sides on the negative side of the field. We already noted that when even in opponent’s territory field goals were the outcome. Here we see even big plays on the offense’s side of the 50-yard line resulting in a punt.
DRIVE OUTCOME |
OFFENSE BIG PLAYS |
DEFENSE BIG PLAYS |
OTHER BIG PLAYS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ole Miss Punt #1 | 16 Yard Pass on 1st Down | QB Hurry | |
| Texas Tech Punt #3 | QB Hurry | 40 Yard Punt Sets Up Long Field | |
| Ole Miss FG #2 | 44 Yard Pass | -1 Yard Rush QB Sack |
Start at 35 Yard Line |
| Texas Tech TD #2 | 19 Yard Rush 15 Yard Defensive PI & First Down |
||
| Ole Miss FG #3 | 15 Yard Rush 31 Yard Pass |
False Start Offensive Personal Foul |
Personal Foul on Kickoff |
Third Quarter
Texas Tech won the second and third quarters from a scoring differential standpoint while losing the big play battle 16-15. If there were differences in big play execution, particularly the long yardage rush and penetration into the backfield, there could have been stronger offensive production and a limiting of the Ole Miss scoring for the quarter. Obviously, this was a time when the Red Raiders were making a comeback bid, so being more effective in winning the big play battle would have provided greater comeback efficiency.
DRIVE OUTCOME |
OFFENSE BIG PLAYS |
DEFENSE BIG PLAYS |
OTHER BIG PLAYS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Tech Punt #4 | 5 Yard Offsides | -2 Yard Rush | |
| Ole Miss Punt #2 | Defensive Stand | ||
| Texas Tech FG #2 | 22 Yard Pass | 5 Yard False Start | |
| Ole Miss TD #4 | 65 yard Rushing TD | ||
| Texas Tech TD #3 | 28 Yard Pass | ||
| Ole Miss Punt #3 | 20 Yard Pass | Defensive Stand Receiver Fell on 3rd Down |
|
| Texas Tech Punt #5 | -1 Yard Pass QB Hurry -3 Yard Rush QB Hurry |
15 Yard Punt Sets Up Short Field |
Fourth Quarter
The fourth quarter saw some differences in play calling as a result of the game situation. Kliff mentioned he was forcing some run calls in an attempt to take some pressure off of Alan Bowman. Additionally, the offense was forced to get more aggressive in passing here and unfortunately there were a lot of mental mistakes. In particular, three personal fouls were very damaging to Tech’s final three opportunities to close the gap in this game.
DRIVE OUTCOME |
OFFENSE BIG PLAYS |
DEFENSE BIG PLAYS |
OTHER BIG PLAYS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Tech Turnover On Downs #1 |
-1 Yard Rush Defensive Backfield Penetration Defensive PI No Call on 4th Down |
Forced Fumble Recovered by TTU | |
| Ole Miss TD #5 | 15 Yard Defensive Personal Foul 34 Yard TD Pass |
Short Field | |
| Texas Tech Turnover On Downs #2 |
Defensive PI on 4th Down For First Down 2 Yard Defensive Personal Foul |
15 Yard Offensive Personal Foul -1 Yard Rush Defensive Stand |
28 Yard Kickoff Return Sets Up Short Field |
| Ole Miss FG #4 | 15 Yard Defensive Personal Foul 44 Yard Rush |
Long Field -1 Yard Loss |
Targeting Player Ejection |
| Texas Tech Turnover On Downs #3 |
22 Yard Pass 19 Yard Pass |
QB Hurry QB Hurry QB Hurry |
Conclusion
I didn’t make this post because I want to be the next advanced college football statistician. I’m curious about the impact that big plays have on a game and find it interesting that a 40-yard pass play can be counteracted by one negative rushing yard. I see two things through these breakdowns that give me some hope for the Red Raiders.
- If the Texas Tech defense can continue growing on the line and begin closing holes and getting more pressure on the quarterback, they can be the difference maker when their weaker secondary does give up big offensive plays downfield.
- The secondary does not have to eliminate all big offensive gains for Texas Tech to be successful, they do need to limit big plays for touchdowns. Obviously, the only way to counteract a single play touchdown is answering with points. However, a 30-yard pass can be recovered from and answered with strong defensive play.
We saw the Red Raiders hold Ole Miss to four field goals on four red zone trips. That is most definitely a positive for this defense. The key to capitalizing on that positive is to stop allowing touchdowns from 30+ yards and keep opponents in front of you, where there are existing opportunities to stall their momentum with a single defensive play.