Ed Note: This post was written last week, when I had a bit of free time and the rankings are based off of rankings before taking into account the games played during the week. The rankings are generally correct.
The Match Ups
| Texas Tech Pass Offense vs. Texas Pass Defense | |
| Texas Tech | |
| Great at home, but terrible on the road. The problem is that Texas Tech is playing on the road, but it is against a terrible offense (i.e. West Virginia was at least decent) and a pretty good defense, although they haven’t really been good statistically on the defense. But Texas Tech’s woes on the road are very real and they have an opportunity to address those issues on Thursday. Texas Tech still has a lethal offense, 3rd in the nation in passing offense. The key will if Texas Tech can utilize the running game to create opportunities with Patrick Mahomes’ arm. Despite the odds, I expect Texas Tech to break out of their slump, not entirely, but for the most part, against the Longhorns. Mainly because Texas, despite being a running team, struggles to hold onto the ball and the more opportunities that Texas Tech has, the better I think the offense does. That seemed to be a big problem against West Virginia, opportunities. I think the offense will have more opportunities here. | |
| Texas | |
| I actually really like the secondary, there’s some good athletes back there and I do think there’s some talent there. The Texas defense is 78th in the nation, allowing 234 yards a game. The cornerbacks are Duke Thomas (5-10/178) and Holton Hill (6-2/179), while Dylan Haines (6-1/193) and Jason Hall (6-2/209) are the safeties. Thomas is a senior while Hill is a freshman and Thomas has 51 tackles on the year along with 3 tackles for loss and 4 passes broken up. Hill has 37 tackles and 2 passes broken up. Haines has 4 interceptions, so yeah, watch out for that, along with 44 tackles and 3 passes broken up. Hall has 41 tackles and 2 passes broken up. Davante Davis (6-2/191) and John Bonney (6-0/188), both freshmen, are the primary backups (to be honest, I’m not totally sure if they are corners or safeties). Davis has an interception and 25 tackles while Bonney has 18 tackles on the year. | |
| ADVANTAGE: | Texas Tech |
| Texas Tech Rush Offense vs. Texas Rush Defense | |
| Texas Tech | |
| On Texas Tech’s worst day, 106 yards against Baylor, is by far the singular worst day. Almost every other game, the Texas Tech rushing offense has vacillated between 175 and 200 yards a game. And the one component that has been absolutely terrific is the fact that the running backs are putting the ball into the endzone. Perhaps the key to the offense getting back on track, particularly the running game, has been how Emeka Okafor has solidified the offensive line and against Kansas State, the offensive line was an afterthought for the most part, which is good because I wasn’t thinking about it, except for those times when Le’Raven Clark leveled someone. And I also think the demeanor and ability of Clark has changed a bit in that he has seemingly become a bit more nasty and I think that comes with age, strength and experience. We’ve all gushed about DeAndre Washington and we should. His career is coming to an end, but I would guess that he wants to end the game on a high, higher than the 248 against a pretty good Kansas State defense. Justin Stockton keeping defenses off balance only helps things. | |
| Texas | |
| I think the strength of the Texas defense is the line, and it seems like they should be better than they are. Maybe that’s because of what I saw against Oklahoma. I really like the talent on the line, so I think this is going to be a chore for the Texas Tech offensive line, but the Longhorns are ranked 97th in rushing defense and allow 194 yards a game. The starting ends are Bryce Cottrell (6-2/253) and Naashon Hughes (6-4/232). Cottrell has 24 tackles on the year, with 5.5 tackles for loss, 3 sacks and 3 quarterback hurries. Hughes is a bit more productive, he has 39 tackles, 5.5 tackles for loss and 3 sacks as well as 3 quarterback hurries. At defensive tackle are Desmond Jackson (6-1/300) and Hassan Ridgeway (6-3/314), while Poona Ford (5-11/291) does get quite a bit of playing time. Jackson has 29 tackles, 2.5 tackles for loss and 1.5 sacks, while Ridgeway has 34 tackles, 6 tackles for loss and 3 sacks. Ford is a very productive back-up, 33 tackles, 6 tackles for loss and 2.5 sacks. That’s a pretty solid trio. The linebackers are led by Peter Jinkens (6-0/230), Malik Jefferson (6-3/232) and Anthony Wheeler (6-2/209). Jefferson, early in his career, appears to be a start in the making and has 59 tackles, 6 tackles for loss and 2.5 sacks. Jinkins definitely leads the way, with 75 tackles on the year with 9.5 tackles for loss and 6.5 sacks. Terrific production from the senior. Wheeler is another true freshman with 22 tackles and just 1 tackle for a loss. | |
| ADVANTAGE: | Texas Tech |
| Texas Tech Pass Defense vs. Texas Pass Offense | |
| Texas Tech | |
| Well, this is another one of those games similar to Kansas State, where we have two units that are not very good at what they do. While Texas isn’t good, neither is that passing defense, allowing 287 yards a game, good for 116th in the nation. A large part of the pass defense has been how the defense is forcing turnovers, not just fumbles, but interceptions. To appreciate how good this has been for Texas Tech this year, last year, Texas Tech had 15 turnovers all of last year, which was near the bottom of the 128 teams to be ranked. This year, Texas Tech is tied for 9th overall and Texas Tech has 9 fumbles gained and 15 interceptions. Yes, that’s right, Texas Tech has as many interceptions as they had total turnovers all of last year. Despite the turnovers, the yards have still been pretty terrible and I’m genuinely concerned about how Texas has better athletes at receiver than K-State (I’m making a presumption here, but I think it might be correct) and Texas Tech needs to keep things in front of them, especially this game. | |
| Texas | |
| The passing offense is pretty rough, 117th in the nation and only average 153 yards a game. It’s mainly Jerrod Heard (6-2/195) who is still doing the passing, although Tyrone Swoopes (6-4/244) occasionally gets some snaps at quarterback, they are mainly of the run variety. Heard averages about 130 yards passing a game, completing 60% of his passes to go with 5 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. Not a ton of production here, but neither did Hubener and he had a career day. At receiver are Daje Johnson (5-9/184) and Marcus Johnson (6-1/194) along with John Burt (6-2/184) and Armanti Foreman (5-11/204). Burt leads the way in terms of yardage with 413 yards on just 20 receptions and 2 touchdowns. D.Johnson leads the way with 33 catches and 361 yards and just 1 touchdown. Foreman and M. Johnson each have 11 catches, so they are involved, but Burt and D. Johnson carry the load. Caleb Bluiette (6-4/258) is the lone productive tight end and he does have 6 catches for 102 yards and a touchdown. | |
| ADVANTAGE: | Push |
| Texas Tech Rush Defense vs. Texas Rush Offense | |
| Texas Tech | |
| There’s a bit more to write about more than last week, only because Texas Tech has one of their better games in stopping Kansas State’s running game. It was a combination of things, although I think that it was largely a result of Kansas State just letting the ball fly a bit. I don’t know if Texas will be tempted to do that. It would be a huge boost if Dakota Allen could play and D’Vonta Hinton played really well in his place. I would guess that Texas is going to get their yards, but potentially not having Foreman available is significant. Plus Gray battling a hamstring injury is a problem. Chris Warren has seen some time, but not a heavy load. It is fair to say that it’s limited at best. I’m guessing that Foreman and Gray will play, but it will be interesting to see how effective they’ll be. | |
| Texas | |
| This is the strength of the offense as Texas averages 214 yards a game and that’s good for 27th in the nation. And generally speaking they have been consistent. There are a couple of stinkers there, for instance Notre Dame, only 60 yards, and Iowa State, only 119 yards. The running backs, which are obviously subject to change because of injuries, are Johnathan Gray (5-10/211), D’Onta Foreman (6-0/241) and true freshman Chris Warren III (6-2/232). Foreman is the leading rusher, but on Thursday of last week, he was having surgery on his finger and was questionable for this game. He does average 68 yards a game and has 5 touchdowns. Gray is a somewhat forgotten back, but seems really solid, averaging nearly 5 yards a game. Heard is a big part of the running game, averaging 55 yards a game, which is second on the team. Oh, and Swoopes has 9 touchdown, leading the team. The offensive line is a bit beat up and young. Connor Williams (6-5/283) is a left tackle (a true freshman), Sedrick Flowers (6-2/326) at left guard, Taylor Doyle (6-4/300) at center, Patrick Vahe (6-2/319) at right guard (another true freshman) and Kent Perkins (6-5/325) at right tackle. | |
| ADVANTAGE: | Texas |
| Texas Tech Special Teams vs. Texas Special Teams | |
| Texas Tech | |
| So we probably know that Clayton Hatfield’s range is 48 yards. That’s what dropped through the cross-bar, but hitting the stand. Overall, for the year, Hatfield is 12 of 14 on the year and has, generally speaking, been very good. Hatfield had a terrible game against West Virginia, he needs to avoid kicking the ball out of bounds, but he rebounded well against Kansas State. Texas isn’t great at returning kickoffs, which is good because Texas Tech isn’t great at defending that. If Jakeem Grant can earn some extra yards on the return game that’s only going to help Texas Tech, especially on the road. | |
| Texas | |
| K Nick Rose (6-1/194) handles kickoff duties, knocking back an astounding 74% back into the endzone. Rose also is the place kicker and has made 9 of 12 field goals and 30 of 31 extra points. Michael Dickinson has handled punting duties and has punted 63 times, averaging 41 yards a punt (Texas Tech only has 35 punts on the year). Daje Johnson handles most of the punt returns and averages 11 yards a return with just 16 returns on the year. This is odd. Texas has run through 10 kickoff returners through the year, but it appears that Johnson and Kris Boyd are the main returners, both averaging about 21 yards a return. | |
| ADVANTAGE: | Push |
The Tally
This is another game where I’ve got Texas Tech favored in 2 categories, both on offense, two pushes and one favored for Texas.