The Match Ups
| Texas Tech Pass Offense vs. Oklahoma State Pass Defense | |
| Texas Tech | |
| This gets a lot more even this week. I really thought the Kansas game was an aberration and the Oklahoma game was an eye-opener. Kingsbury mentioned all week that he hoped to create some situations to give Mahomes more time, whether it be play-calling or otherwise. I wonder too if we’ll see additional blocking, whether it be from two running backs, or maybe Pearson can chip or perhaps we’ll see Tyler Scalzi or some other fullback. I honestly don’t know how Texas Tech will play this week. Having Ian Sadler back helps and the hints all week that we’ll see more freshman is telling that the coaches aren’t happy with the receivers getting open. they just have to be better. I’m giving Texas Tech the advantage here, but this is very close. Last week I wrote in the seven point preview that Patrick Mahomes would have to carry the team to beat Oklahoma, but this week, I think Mahomes is going to have to use his intellect as much as his athletic ability. Have to pick Oklahoma State apart and not turn the ball over. | |
| Oklahoma State | |
| The best player in the secondary is probably FS Jordan Sterns (6-1/205) a player that originally committed to Texas Tech and has been terrific. SS Tre Flowers (6-3/190) is your other safety and he’s pretty good too, 3rd on the team with 38 tackles and 4 pass break-ups. The cornerbacks are Kevin Peterson (5-11/190) and Ashton Lampkin (5-11/185). Notice that they both have good size and I’d imagine that this will test Texas Tech’s receivers (again). A huge part of the pass defense is the incredible play of DE Emmanuel Ogbah (6-4/275) who has 11.5 tackles for loss (which includes 8 sacks) and 12 quarterback hurries. If you can’t contain Ogbah, then it’s serious trouble. Overall, Oklahoma State is 20th in passing yards allowed, only 181 yards per game. The pass defense is fine. Just fine. | |
| ADVANTAGE: | Texas Tech |
| Texas Tech Rush Offense vs. Oklahoma State Rush Defense | |
| Texas Tech | |
| Texas Tech is actually 36th in the nation in rushing offense, which is still a shock to me on some level. I tend to underrate the rushing offense because it has been so inconsistent to bad for most of the time, but this year is different. DeAndre Washington will wear on a defense and eventually, he gets his yards. The ability to run is probably diminished greatly, if Baylen Brown isn’t able to go then I’m not sure how effective the rushing game will be. Brown is incredibly important and even though he’s not perfect, I think he’s better than most of the alternatives. I tend to think that maybe one of the things that this team could do is utilize more of the attack of Quinton White and DeAndre Washington, a blocking back to assist, and it would have been something that Oklahoma State hasn’t seen film of since the first week or two of the season. I’d also mention that despite the injuries, Texas Tech has still been pretty good running the ball. | |
| Oklahoma State | |
| We’ve already talked a bit about Ogbah, but on the other side is Jimmy Beat (6-5/250) and he creates issues on his own right. Bean has 10.5 tackles for loss and 5.5 sacks. As the season started, the defensive line was supposed to be incredibly thin, but that hasn’t mattered at all. DT Motekiai Maile (6-4/305) and DT Vincent Taylor (6-3/300) are your tackles, along with DT Darrion Daniels (6-3/320) (that one still hurts) and DT Eric Davis (6-3/295). Oklahoma is 36th in rush defense, which is terrific in the Big 12, and only allowing 135 yards a game. On the ends are Ogbah and DE Jimmy Beam (6-5/250). The Cowboys lost a huge part of the defense with injury to LB Ryan Simmons, but LB Jordan Burton (6-3/215) LB Chad Whitener (6-1/240) and LB Seth Jacobs (6-2/225) seem to be picking up the pieces just fine. This is as solid of a defense that you’ll see. | |
| ADVANTAGE: | Push |
| Texas Tech Pass Defense vs. Oklahoma State Pass Offense | |
| Texas Tech | |
| Regardless of the turnovers, it’s clear that Oklahoma State has the advantage here. The turnovers have been terrific, and Texas Tech is still half a turnover a game in the positive on the year (despite the four interceptions last week). Texas Tech has 9 interceptions on the year and 32 pass break-ups, including 9 quarterback pressures. It appears that Justis Nelson will play despite having a cast on his hand, and although Nigel Bethel was injured a bit last week, no one has asked about him, so the presumption is that he’s good to go. At some point, the cornerbacks are going to have to play better, especially looking back for the ball. I’d also add that the safeties are a bit problematic because they do gain turnovers, but Gibbs is correct in that Jah’Shawn Johnson and J.J. Gaines will miss tackles or take bad angles or they’ll fill the wrong gap (at least from my end) to support the run (I noticed this a couple of times, for Johnson in particular). Texas Tech is giving up 280 yards a game through the air, so it’s not terrible, but teams are holding up on the pass because they can run well. The turnovers have been the biggest bright spot for the team, but there have been lots and lots of yards and big plays. | |
| Oklahoma State | |
| QB Mason Randolph (6-4/220) hasn’t been as spectacular as maybe Oklahoma State fans would like, throwing only 10 touchdowns and 7 interceptions thus far, but he’s been really good as a true sophomore. Despite what may seem as just “okay” numbers, Oklahoma State is 12th in the nation in passing offense. Part of the solution at quarterback has been the play of QB J.W. Walsh (6-2/215) who enters the game near the redzone and has been really terrific for OSU because OSU is terrific in the redzone, 7th in the nation. Walsh is a runner and can hit an open receiver. Starters at receiver are WR Marcell Ateman (6-4/210) WR David Glidden (5-8/184) WR Austin Hays (6-2/190) and WR James Washington (6-0/200). Glidden is 1st on the team with 34 catches and 548 yards, but there doesn’t appear to be a standout receiver. They all contribute. Washington has 7 catches for 388 yards, Ateman has 21 for 345 and Hays has 16 for 122. | |
| ADVANTAGE: | Oklahoma State |
| Texas Tech Rush Defense vs. Oklahoma State Rush Offense | |
| Texas Tech | |
| I don’t have a lot of answers here. I saw a blurb from RRS (it was behind a paywall) DL coach Mike Smith said that Breiden Fehoko had his best game yet against Oklahoma and so I I don’t know how to take that. I go round and round about how this all works out, but given the fact that Oklahoma State is not a terrific running team, it does give me some hope that Texas Tech can hold the Cowboys to close to their average, but I think I’m setting myself up for failure here. Texas Tech has given up over 300 yards four different times this year and over 400 yards last week against Oklahoma. I keep thinking that it’s going to click at some point with one or two players but it’s not happening thus far. | |
| Oklahoma State | |
| The running game of Oklahoma State has been less than stellar and I think most OSU fans would like to see a better effort here. They are 96th in the nation in rush offense, which is only good for 146 yards a game. The offensive line, from left to right, is LT Victor Salako (6-6/330), LG Michael Wilson (6-6/305) C Brad Lundblade (6-3/300), RG Paul Lewis (6-3/295) and RT Zach Crabtree (6-7/305). The running backs are Chris Carson (6-2/202) and RB Rennie Childs (5-10/205). Cartson only averages 57 yards a game and Childs averages about 39 a game. The blocking backs are Blake Jarwin (6-4/242) or Jeremy Seaton (6-2/250). You can imagine all of the negative things that I’m thinking in my head and not typing about Oklahoma State struggling in the ground game, but I’m going to keep them to myself. | |
| ADVANTAGE: | Oklahoma State |
| Texas Tech Special Teams vs. Oklahoma State Special Teams | |
| Texas Tech | |
| Clayton Hatfield has been really good kicking the field goals, going 8 of 9 on the year and since Clayton Hatfield has been filling in for Taylor Symmank, Hatfield has knocked 54% of kickoffs into the endzone, which is good. It was nice to see Texas Tech’s kickoff return game improve a bit as Jakeem Grant looked good on more than a few returns. Funny stat of the day (it’s really not funny) is that Texas Tech has gone three games without fielding a punt return and had two of them back to back, Kansas and Oklahoma. The third was Arkansas. Last year, Texas Tech had three game streak at the end of the year where there were no punt returns, Oklahoma, Iowa state and Baylor. | |
| Oklahoma State | |
| Ben Grogan (6-1/186) is your place kicker and kickoff human. He knocks back 28% of his kickoffs into the endzone and has made 11 of 14 field goals this year, but only 30 of 33 extra points. P Zach Sinor (5-11/195) is the Cowboy’s punter, averaging 40 yards a game, while PR Jalen McCleskey (5-10/156) is the main punt returner, only averaging 2.71 yards a return. KR Jeff Carr (5-7/168) is the best kickoff returner, averaging about 23 yards a return. | |
| ADVANTAGE: | Push |
The Tally
I’ve got Texas Tech favored in one match up, although I’ve got concerns, with Oklahoma State favored in two match ups and two pushes. It’s closer than it probably looks on paper, especially given Oklahoma State’s sterling record.