The Match Ups
| Texas Tech Pass Offense vs. Oklahoma Pass Defense | |
| Texas Tech | |
| The prospects of Texas Tech having a competent pass offense is largely depending on Le’Raven Clark returning at full strength. It’s amazing how one person can have such a significant effect, but Clark being out of the game threw everything off kilter. I’d also say that Tony Morales struggled, I thought. He missed some key blocks, just lacked some lateral quickness to make some plays and the same thing could be said for Robert Castaneda. Castaneda is very much in a trail by fire situation and he’s a redshirt freshman, but hopefully he doesn’t see a ton of time this week. If anything, I think he realized how things go hyperspeed when it’s game day no matter who is playing. Not only that, but I’m guessing that Castaneda learned that you never ever let up on a block. Ever. You stick with your man until he’s on the ground. If Clark is healthy, then I think you see more normal production and I think you see a more focused passing offense. Even with an off-game last week, Patrick Mahomes is averaging 374 yards a game with 20 touchdowns and 6 interceptions and 8.5 yards per attempt. Jakeem Grant has had a monster season thus far, catching 49 passes for 719 yards and 4 touchdowns, while Devin Lauderdale was back, but he still looked a bit off. His fumble when he got hit was not what Lauderdale does. He’s always struck me as a guy that a guy that’s small, but tougher than nails. I’m guessing he’s not 100% and I hope that he’s a bit closer this week. And believe it or not, Reggie Davis leads the team with 5 touchdowns on the year. His catch rate is near 50%, but he can catch some touchdowns. | |
| Oklahoma | |
| The Oklahoma pass defense has been very good, allowing only 152 yards a game, which is good for 9th in the nation. The only pass-happy offense to do much of anything was Tulsa, who put up 427 yards earlier in the year and did a pretty good job of torching Oklahoma, averaging 8.4 yards per attempt. But after that, Oklahoma has held Akron, Texas and Kansas State to all under 100 yards, but yeah, that competition hasn’t been great. We’ll find out if the stats mean much of anything. At the corners are Zach Sanchez (5-11/179) and Jordan Thomas (6-0/191), both have 3 interceptions each, which is pretty danged impressive. At safety are Hatari Byrd (6-1/106) at free safety, Ahmad Thomas (6-0/213) at strong safety and Steven Parker (6-1/200) at the nickel, although Parker may be the most versatile of the bunch. | |
| ADVANTAGE: | Texas Tech |
| Texas Tech Rush Offense vs. Oklahoma Rush Defense | |
| Texas Tech | |
| 174, 229, 171, 215, 106, 261 and 222. Those are your game by game rushing totals for the Texas Tech offense. It’s largely been on the back of DeAndre Washington, but Justin Stockton, when he shakes free can be a difference maker. Still, this team needs Washington to be productive and the offensive line needs to be better. I just don’t see a positive outcome if the offensive line if they don’t create some room for Washington. The first half was very rough for Washington, but he and the line kept plugging away and it eventually happened. I still think it would be beneficial for there to be more balanced overall. For the year, the Texas Tech offense is running for nearly 200 yards a game and I never thought I’d see the day where Texas Tech was averaging more yards running more than Oklahoma. As an aside, this is the 36th best rush offense in the nation. | |
| Oklahoma | |
| The rush defense has been stellar as well, at least in terms of numbers, allowing only 170 yards a game, which is good for 69th in nation. Every game, the opponent has run for over 100 yards, except for the Kansas State game where the Wildcats onlyran for 65 yards. The roughest game for the Sooners was the Texas game where the Longhorns ran for 313 yards, but West Virgnia ran for 196 and Tulsa also had 176. I think this is a susceptible defense to run on and it will obviously be key for Texas Tech to continue to run, regardless of early game results. Inside are DT’s Matt Romar (6-0/291) and Matt Dimon (6-2/260). Romar hasn’t made but half a tackle behind the line of scrimmage, while Dimon already has 3.5. Backing them up are Charles Walker (6-2/297) who has 4.5 tackles for a loss and Jordan Wade (6-3/300) who has 1 tackle for a loss. On the ends are Eric Striker (6-0/222), who is a dominant edge rusher and I’m sared to death of Le’Raven Clark can’t play to contain him. Striker already has 10 tackles for a loss, while Charles Tapper (6-2/282) hasn’t been as dominant as a prior version and only has 2 TFL. D.J. Ward (6-2/259) and Austin Roberts (6-6/265) primarly back up Tapper. At linebacker are Jordan Evans (6-2/239) — who may be out for the game — and Dominique Alexander (6-0/220), who are 2 and 1 in terms of tackles for the team. They appear to be doing a nice job of cleaning up the leftovers. | |
| ADVANTAGE: | Texas Tech |
| Texas Tech Pass Defense vs. Oklahoma Pass Offense | |
| Texas Tech | |
| Not sure how to sugarcoat this, so I won’t. Most likely, Mayfield is going to carve up this defense. It’s going to be ugly, quite ugly, and I’d guess that Gibbs will employ the same thing that he’s employed thus far this year, which is to keep everything in front of them and not allow the big play. Regardless of what you think about Mayfield, he’s adept at everything short to midrange and quite frankly, he’s been terrific at the deep stuff. If anything, I think Gibbs is going to have to crank up the deception factor for the secondary to be much of a difference in this game and make a play for more turnovers and mistakes. The way that J.J. Gaines has stepped into the safety role has been terrific and he’s creating turnovers. The same thing for Jah’Shawn Johnson, who sealed and won the game last week. At some point, the cornerbacks will need to play better, but I’m not expecting that this particular game. I’m probably being too harsh here, but the pass defense sits at 114th overall in passing defense, so the trend is not in the right direction for Texas Tech. | |
| Oklahoma | |
| Don’t look now, but Mayfield (6-1/209) is having a pretty good year thus far, compleing 67 percent of his passes for 1,875 yards, 19 touchdowns and 3 interceptions while leading the 14th best passing offense in the nation. He’s getting the ball deep, averaging nearly 10 yards an attempt, which is great. I wrote earlier this week that if Mayfield can cut down on the turnovers, he’d been pretty good and he has been thus far, his lone hiccup was the Texas game. And just to be clear, Kingsbury didn’t let Mayfield go other than he didn’t give into Mayfield’s demands. It’s a long story, but Kingsbury made the right call and regardless as to whether or not Mayfield is good or great or terrible, Kingsbury made the right call. You can’t let a player dictate how you run the program. At the wide receivers are Dede Westbrook (6-0/168) and Sterling Shepard (5-10/193). Westbrook is good for yearly 400 yards and 2 touchdowns on 26 catches, while Shepard has been terrific, catching 30 for 500 yards and 5 touchdowns. Durron Neal (5-11/199) and Jarvis Baxter (5-11/160) are both in double-digit catches and play inside, Neal has 20 for 341, while Baxter only has 10 on the year. Surprisingly, Joe Mixon has been a very good target, catching 17 passes for 217 yards and 3 touchdowns. That’s something to watch. Tight end Mark Andrews (6-5/245) could be a match up problem for Texas Tech as he has excellent size and already has 4 touchdowns on just 9 catches. He’s an obvious redzone target. | |
| ADVANTAGE: | Oklahoma |
| Texas Tech Rush Defense vs. Oklahoma Rush Offense | |
| Texas Tech | |
| This could also get ugly, although this is largely dependent on how Oklahoma wants to run. I mentioned after the game that I thought that the defenseive line looked the most cohesive that I can recall and that’s going to have to carry over here against Oklahoma. The rush defense is allowing 264 yards a game, which is 122nd in the nation. The one thing that I very much like is how the line is being rotated and I thought this was the difference in the game against Kansas. Without fresh defensive linemen ready to push the kansas offensive line, then I’m not sure that Willis throws that interception. And the play before that was a completely breakdown of the line. When it counted, they made plays. Now, rather than it being pass plays, the defense is going to have to repeat the Kanas performance. There have only been 2 games thus far where Texas Tech held an opponent to less than 5 yards a carry, UTEP and then Kansas. | |
| Oklahoma | |
| The somewhat maligned Oklahoma offensive line is led by LT Orlando Brown (6-8/342), LG Derek Farniok (6-8/339), C Ty Darlington (6-3/286), RG Nila Kasitati (6-3/319) and RT Josiah St. John (6-6/308). Oklahoma’s best game running the ball was last week where they ran for 252 yards on 52 carries, which makes sense as the game was out of hand early and there’s no reason to let that game just wear on. That was right up against the Texas game where the Sooners ran 37 times for only 67 yards and that Texas defensive line was as dominant a unit as I’ve seen this year, at least for that game. Overall, the rush offense is averaging 160 yards a game, which is only good for 82nd overall. There are plenty of options at running back Samaje Perine (5-10/230) could do what he did last year, although he “only” has 93 carries for 420 yards and 3 touchdowns, while Joe Mixon (6-1/217) has 48 carries on 233 yards and 2 touchdowns. The blocking or H-Back is Dimitri Flowers (6-2/228) and he doesn’t have a carry. | |
| ADVANTAGE: | Oklahoma |
| Texas Tech Special Teams vs. Oklahoma Special Teams | |
| Texas Tech | |
| Seeing Taylor Symmank hobbled out there is greatly affecting the special teams as he’s no longer available to kick the ball out of the back of the endzone and he might be unable to punt much longer without getting healthy. It appears that Michael Barden will get the call for the punts and Clayton Hatfield will get the call for the kicking and kickoff duties. The kickoff and punt returns have still regressed a bit, but then they totally redeem themselves with a huge two-point play. I would very much like to see Grant take advantage of any opportunities in the kickoff return game, but those have been few and far between. With Taylor Symmank hurt and the return game losing steam, I’ll take the Sooners here. | |
| Oklahoma | |
| The kicker is freshman Austin Seibert (5-10/210) and Nick Hodgson (6-2/20)) handles kickoff duties where OU is 54th on kickoff return defense. Siebert is 10 for 10 on field goals and made all 30 of his extra points. Siebert also handles the punting duties and isn’t as proficient, only 102nd in the nation in punting, but Oklahoma is 7th in punt return defense. Alex Ross (6-1/221) and Durron Neal (5-11/199) handle kickoff returns and is only 110th in the nation in that category while Sterling Shepard is your punt returner and as a team, the Sooners are 50th overall. | |
| ADVANTAGE: | Oklahoma |
The Tally
I’ve got the Sooners favored in three of the five match ups. The Sooners clearly have the better overall defense (it’s not close) and the 14 or 15 point line doesn’t seem like it is enough given how good the Sooners have been on defense. Fully acknowledge that Oklahoma hasn’t played a big-time offensive team, but they’ve been really good.